Slight Spin in Gulf of Mexico

[Alyono]

does anyone know what is the cumulus paramaterization scheme that wrf uses?

Also, what is the resolution

[weathaguyry]

Looks like convection is increasing, but probably just afternoon related

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looking more interesting. Probably nothing but shows how dangerous this year could be because even these type of features stand a chance unlike the past few seasons. Though it is unlikely to form.

[TheAustinMan]

does anyone know what is the cumulus paramaterization scheme that wrf uses?

Also, what is the resolution

I believe the WRF-ARW CONUS grid is 4.2km, but I'm not sure what the cumulus parameterization would be. Apparently the model supports Kain-Fritsch, Betts-Miller-Janjic and Grell-Devenyi ensemble.

[JaxGator]

Looks like convection is increasing, but probably just afternoon related

It is that time of year when it's good to keep an eye out regardless of what happens. Convection is indeed increasing and big thunderstorms and heavy rains can been seen on the regional radar/sat loop. It's probably afternon related but it's interesting to look at.

[Alyono]

does anyone know what is the cumulus paramaterization scheme that wrf uses?

Also, what is the resolution

I believe the WRF-ARW CONUS grid is 4.2km, but I'm not sure what the cumulus parameterization would be. Apparently the model supports Kain-Fritsch, Betts-Miller-Janjic and Grell-Devenyi ensemble.

if it is using a paramaterization scheme at 4km resolution, the model is worth nothing. Convection needs to be explicit at that resolution

[USTropics]

does anyone know what is the cumulus paramaterization scheme that wrf uses?

Also, what is the resolution

These may help:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... 10-05091.1

https://books.google.com/books?id=OmjFC ... 10&f=false

[NDG]

I see a definite broad circulation on radar and hr vis satellite loop along the surface trough but no global model support for any significant development.

[JaxGator]

Here is what the Euro showed @ 240hrs. for Thursday June 30th on it's 00z run Monday June 20th. Interestimg it was nearly spot-on with the timeframe.

http://i66.tinypic.com/2s92csw.jpg

The Euro had a low-end TS around tomorrow but dropped it.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Convection dying off. Well it was fun while it lasted but probably just daytime heating made it look more impressive than it really was.

[northjaxpro]

There is a surface trough analyzed in that area south of the Louisiana coast. Pressures that I am seeing currently are not any lower than 1014mb at this time in that area. However, there does seem to be some type of spin, probably in the mid levels within that convective area. If convection persists for a period of time, this may be worth monitoring. I am leaving for the Big Easy tomorrow for a vacation this July 4 holiday weekend. Now, I am not anticipating much to come of this, as does the global models. However, you NEVER take any troughs in the GOM for granted, especially this time of the year.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Enjoy but stay well hydrated, gonna be hot and nasty. Highs supposed to be in the mid 90's with minimal rains chances and heat index well above 100.

[northjaxpro]

Oh yeah Cyclone Mike., I will be prepared to deal with that oppressive heat and humidity down in the Big Easy. Drinking lots of water especially. Thanks, I will take every precaution dealing with it, but living here in Jax I am more than used to dealing with the heat and humidity.

[JaxGator]

I know I asked this earlier but I dismissed it, but now I keep seeing what seems to be the low spin in a clockwise motion.

[weathaguyry]

Convection is increasing this morning, but it looks scattered

[northjaxpro]

On my way on vacation, but checking in here before leaving. NHC has a 1012 mb surface Low analyzed at 12Z this morning about 150 miles south-southeast of Lake Charles, LA. It is along the base of a surface trough which extends along the North Central Gulf region.




There is a weak surface low in the GOM and I am not anticipating development, but like I said last night, any surface trough or Low in the GOM can never be taken for granted, even without model support.

It is something to just monitor just in case, for me in particular, since I am heading in that direction. In the meantime, I hope all of you have a fun and safe July 4 holiday weekend.

[tailgater]

I know I asked this earlier but I dismissed it, but now I keep seeing what seems to be the low spin in a clockwise motion.

Where are you seeing this clockwise rotation and which satellite view are you looking at? Visible, water vapor or infrared?

[JaxGator]

I know I asked this earlier but I dismissed it, but now I keep seeing what seems to be the low spin in a clockwise motion.

Where are you seeing this clockwise rotation and which satellite view are you looking at? Visible, water vapor or infrared?

It looked that way on all the loops but it's not there now. My guess it was either a anti-cyclone aloft or an illusion.