Tropical Wave in the Central Caribbean

[Dean4Storms]

Nice looking organization over night and concentrated Convection......Hmmmm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-vis.html

[weathaguyry]

That is a nice chunk of convection...

[srainhoutx]

The vigorous wave is surrounded with a lot of African Dust, but it has detached from the ITCZ and may have some potential in the Western Atlantic Basin. A very robust MJO pulse as well as a strong CCKW is expected to arrive next week. If you look further East toward Africa, the T Waves are increasing as the monsoon season begins across Western Africa. SAL may relax in time, but looks to be a major inhibitor as well as sinking air from the very strong sub tropical upper ridge over the mid latitudes of the Atlantic.

[tropicwatch]

Just noticed that this morning. There is some 850mb vorticity but it does have some wind shear with and stronger wind shear in front of it. Something decent to watch for the next couple of days.

[weathaguyry]

Here is the current shear

[gatorcane]

looking at the 00Z ECMWF, it appears to be showing development of this wave once in the EPAC

[TheStormExpert]

looking at the 00Z ECMWF, it appears to be showing development of this wave once in the EPAC

Why are these TW's waiting to develop in the Eastern Pacific?

Seems conditions are not as favorable as they could be in the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Too much wind shear still and some dry air.

[tarheelprogrammer]

looking at the 00Z ECMWF, it appears to be showing development of this wave once in the EPAC

Why are these TW's waiting to develop in the Eastern Pacific?

Seems conditions are not as favorable as they could be in the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Too much wind shear still and some dry air.

Ah shear and dry air. Shear has been the helper in the Atlantic the past 5 years in stopping storms from striking the US. 2006-2011 it was trofs and 2011-present it is shear. Eventually something has to change right? I hope not and it just seems odd how lucky we have been over the last decade.

[cycloneye]

looking at the 00Z ECMWF, it appears to be showing development of this wave once in the EPAC

Why are these TW's waiting to develop in the Eastern Pacific?

Seems conditions are not as favorable as they could be in the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Too much wind shear still and some dry air.

As Alyono said,if there is activity in the EPAC,it will cause shear at Caribbean.

[RL3AO]

Also the ITCZ/monsoon trof is around 5N in the Atlantic and 10 to 15N in EPAC. Much better convergence and vorticity in EPAC right now.

[RL3AO]

looking at the 00Z ECMWF, it appears to be showing development of this wave once in the EPAC

Why are these TW's waiting to develop in the Eastern Pacific?

Seems conditions are not as favorable as they could be in the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Too much wind shear still and some dry air.

Here's a more detailed answer. Hope it helps.

viewtopic.php?p=2510172#p2510172

[Javlin]

But it does appear this morning we have something peculating S of Hispaniola.The only thing I think I have seen is maybe alittle Lower Convergence showing up on the map?