Strong wave east of Lesser Antilles -- maybe first to really watch?

[ninel conde]

It's the wave to the West of the wave now off the coast of Africa (I think). It has no convection with It.

This will be a good test to see if conditions further west really are better for development. JB must think its a decent wave. will it be able to develop a thunderstorm or 2 eventually?

The wave looked big on satellite when you can see the clouds associated with it. At the moment, shear is overall favorable (A little bit less than yesterday but simillar) in most of the basin besides the dry air. So yes, imo, if the wave get's past the dry air and finds a environment ( probably past 50w) of lower pressures and mositure, I think it's possible it could fire off some thunderstorms.

It may. should be a sign one way or the other how the season turns out.

[NDG]

Should see some nice tropical waves move out of Africa over the next couple of weeks as the MJO signal is getting stronger on border line Phase 1 & 2, which favors tropical activity over the N Atlantic Basin.

[Hurricaneman]

looking quite convective at about 10N at 35W, is it possible this may have to be watched as it approaches the lesser Antilles

[ninel conde]

I dont think it has any chance to develop, but it does look a bit more robust tonight.

[dixiebreeze]

Wave east of Lesser Antilles looking very good this morning.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/h5-loop-rb.html

[RL3AO]

Big blow-up of convection along the western edge of the monsoon trof. We will see if it looks half as good this evening.

[JaxGator]

Shear is low between 40W and 59W.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8sht.GIF

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
707 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 17N southward,
moving westward about 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong from 03N to 10N
between 30W and 40W, possibly including some ITCZ-related
precipitation also.

[N2FSU]

Looks quite healthy this morning with rotation evident.

[RL3AO]

Looks quite healthy this morning with rotation evident.

It pretty much has a closed low. Lots of convergence helping set off some strong convection.

[cycloneye]

I may be surprised if today,NHC does not add a yellow x.

[RL3AO]

Here's a more recent pass. You can see very strong converging winds where the western edge of the monsoon trof ends. I'm still skeptical there will be much in 24 hours when the wave gets further west.

[BobHarlem]

I may be surprised if today,NHC does not add a yellow x.

I don't know about that. The wave around 22N, 65W looks better than this.

[Nimbus]

The next wave currently near -7W that is getting ready to emerge from Africa looks pretty juicy to me.
Its further north near the latitude of the Cape Verde islands and should be hindered by the SAL especially if there is a major increase in SAL Thursday.

Given the current size and vorticity with this wave it might develop before reaching the Pacific if it finds favorable conditions.

[floridasun78]

I may be surprised if today,NHC does not add a yellow x.

I don't know about that. The wave around 22N, 65W looks better than this.

i saw that one it form into tropical wave last night

[Nimbus]

I may be surprised if today,NHC does not add a yellow x.

I don't know about that. The wave around 22N, 65W looks better than this.

i saw that one it form into tropical wave last night

Weak wave still visible.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

[tropicwatch]

Just checking out sat images and noticed that little guy moving through the Bahama's.

[JaxGator]

Just checking out sat images and noticed that little guy moving through the Bahama's.

I think this wave was passing North of PR yesterday. Direction looks ominous but providing good rains. It could cause some showers in Florida the next day or so.

[BobHarlem]

Just checking out sat images and noticed that little guy moving through the Bahama's.

I think this wave was passing North of PR yesterday. Direction looks ominous but providing good rains. It could cause some showers in Florida the next day or so.

The Bahamas wave really blew up today, and the dying front over Florida normally would set off some alarm bells, but it seems to be moving too quickly.

[dixiebreeze]

The wave east of the Lesser Antilles looks pretty good tonight and so does the one not far behind it. Africa looking much jucier now, too.