Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (Invest 97L is up)

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Gustywind
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Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (Invest 97L is up)

#1 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:16 am

Another twave to track. Let's see what could happen with this one.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
610 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic from 09N-19N with axis
near 22W, forecast to move at 10-15 kt within the next 24 hours.
Scatterometer data show there is a low center associated with the
wave with pressure of 1010 mb.
Meteosat composite imagery show
Saharan dry air and dust engulfing the northern wave environment.
A surge of moderate moist air from surface to 850 mb and divergent
flow in the middle to upper levels support an elongated cluster
of moderate to isolated strong convection from 10N-13N between
18W and 25W.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#2 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:23 am

Image
Here is our TW/Low in 72 hours...
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#3 Postby alienstorm » Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:27 am

Nice ball of convention and spin with it. time will tell
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#4 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:37 am

It's taking advantage of the fairly far north monsoon trough and favorable environment. However, convection will probably get suppressed as it moves west and detaches from ITCZ/trough.

Image
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#5 Postby JaxGator » Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:43 am

Looks good on satellite with nice convection. Could the wave be able to have its own moisture envelope before it would detach from ITCZ/trough?
Last edited by JaxGator on Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:52 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#6 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:47 am

Isn't this the Tropical Wave the GFS was developing for several runs about 5-6 days ago?
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#7 Postby JaxGator » Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:49 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Isn't this the Tropical Wave the GFS was developing for several runs about 5-6 days ago?


I think so. Today or yesterday was the day it was supposed to make splashdown.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#8 Postby JaxGator » Tue Jul 26, 2016 10:28 am

For now, it has some moisture to work with (far right).
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

SAL is an issue but I did find these graphics that show moisture and dry air in the mid and upper levels.
Mid level:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/wvmid.jpg

Upper level:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/wvhi.jpg

We'll see. Maybe it could develop down the road.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#9 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jul 26, 2016 10:33 am

Thanks for reply guys :). Again, let's wait and see if something could happen with this twave.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#10 Postby USTropics » Tue Jul 26, 2016 10:38 am

A few more shots:

Image

Image

Animated Meteosat images:
http://imgur.com/I28h6Nk
Last edited by USTropics on Tue Jul 26, 2016 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#11 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jul 26, 2016 10:42 am

USTropics wrote:A few more shots:

http://i.imgur.com/rAiQKzp.jpg

Animated Meteosat images:
http://imgur.com/I28h6Nk

:) Thanks my friend we all appreciate :D
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#12 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jul 26, 2016 10:44 am

From Accuweather.com

The Atlantic Basin remains tranquil


No organized tropical features are expected through this week and through early next week.
Jul 26, 2016; 11:27 AM ET No organized tropical features are expected through this week and through early next week.
:rarrow: http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail ... Start=true
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#13 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:49 am

The 12Z GEM develops this in the long-range (off Southeast US. coast). Normally I would say forget it but the GEM has been way more conservative this year with the upgrade not showing the phantoms storms it has been known to show in previous years.

Image
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#14 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:53 am

I think it's worth watching as it goes north of the islands for sure.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#15 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jul 26, 2016 12:29 pm

Looks to me like the air ahead of it has moistened up a bit, at least up to about 40W. I'm guessing that this wave will likely sacrafice itself to further breakdown some of the mid-Atlantic MDR region SAL out there. Like others have pondered though, thats not to say that it wont suddently find "that sweet spot" and find itself newly developing convection as it approaches the islands or the S.E. Conus.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#16 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 26, 2016 12:39 pm

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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#17 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:23 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion...correction for satellite time
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016



Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 23N
from 9N-17N moving west moving west near 10 kt over the past 12
hours. The latest scatterometer pass indicates the low is no
longer on the surface
. There is a mid level low observed on the
visible satellite imagery.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb low as
depicted in the global models and within a high amplitude surge
of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 9N-13N between 20w-
26W.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#18 Postby USTropics » Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:42 pm

Strongest signature I've seen on the ECMWF operational run so far for our wave:

Image

Early NCEP 00z TC Ensemble Probs %
Image
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#19 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:49 pm

What's the link to that NCEP ensembles probabilities page?
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#20 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:51 pm

Is it this wave the Euro is developing? It's already nearing 25W and the Euro develops something near 30 in 4 days.
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