Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (Invest 97L is up)

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JaxGator
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#21 Postby JaxGator » Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:58 pm

USTropics wrote:Strongest signature I've seen on the ECMWF operational run so far for our wave:

http://i.imgur.com/rSVAjPs.png

Early NCEP 00z TC Ensemble Probs %
http://i.imgur.com/4TTca2C.png


If that is our wave, it would be a slow mover but not saying it might be.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#22 Postby USTropics » Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:What's the link to that NCEP ensembles probabilities page?


I have the direct link to that one:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... 00_120.png

I believe the source of it derives from http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/cmelha ... emble.html - NCEP EMC TC ensemble products (under tropical - http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/jpeng/ ... ex_TC.html).
It requires login.

It's also on the HFIP site:
http://www.hfip.org/products/
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#23 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:03 pm

I think the ECMWF is developing something still over Africa, not this wave right?
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#24 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:03 pm

Experimental model agrees with this wave possibly getting stronger throughout the rest of this week.

http://www.hfip.org/data/
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#25 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:08 pm

gatorcane wrote:I think the ECMWF is developing something still over Africa, not this wave right?

I'm pretty sure it is since it starts developing it in 72hrs. in nearly the exact location this wave is currently at.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#26 Postby USTropics » Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:09 pm

ECMWF has a wave behind this one that ultimately has a more dominating vorticity.

Image

Neither becomes particularly strong as they head towards the Northern Leewards.
Image

GFS had a similar solution, with quite a bit of dry air:
Image

Image
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#27 Postby USTropics » Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:16 pm

The signature near the northern Leeward islands at the end of the run is actually the wave behind this one. Our current wave appears to be a sacrificial lamb.
Image
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#28 Postby JaxGator » Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:32 pm

Is the wave the Euro has developing on that run forecasted to emerge off the coast tomorrow or the next?
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#29 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:42 pm

Well, well, the 12Z UKMET going with development of this wave in the Bahamas one week from now. So now two models are showing development (CMC and UKMET):

Image
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#30 Postby USTropics » Tue Jul 26, 2016 2:52 pm

Today's 00z CMC run:
Image

06z GFS run two days ago, maybe it was hinting at something:
Image
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#31 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:20 pm

Something to keep an eye on but I recall the UKMET being a pretty poor model last year and well then there's the CMC... :lol:
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#32 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:41 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
733 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016


A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic
with axis extending from 18N37W to 09N36W, moving west near 10-15 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb
low/trough as depicted in the global models and prevails within a
surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. No associated deep convection is observed at this time as
Saharan dust and dry air prevails in its environment
.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#33 Postby Kazmit » Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:25 pm

Let's keep a lookout for possible development. These waves are getting stronger- I think by early August this mini drought will come to a end, and the season will begin to pick up speed.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#34 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:18 am

This is the tropical wave that the Euro & GFS show coming through the Leeward Islands this weekend as a strong tropical wave. The Euro has a strong vorticity and pretty good UL environment, so something to keep an eye on.
The only thing that may be working negatively against it is that the models show it moving fairly quickly across the Atlantic, too fast for a closed circulation to form at the surface.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#35 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:25 am

wxman57 wrote:What's the link to that NCEP ensembles probabilities page?


http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#36 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:28 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 09N-17N with axis
near 41W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW
imagery show mainly dry air from the surface to 850 mb associated
with this wave. The dry air is due to the presence of abundant
Saharan dry air and dust, which is hindering convection at the
time.
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Re: Newly formed Tropical Wave near 22W with 1010 Low Pressure

#37 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:12 am

Gustywind wrote:000
AXNT20 KNHC 271000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 09N-17N with axis
near 41W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW
imagery show mainly dry air from the surface to 850 mb associated
with this wave. The dry air is due to the presence of abundant
Saharan dry air and dust, which is hindering convection at the
time.


The tropical wave that you posted from the NHC is not the tropical wave we are talking about on this thread. The one we are talking about on this thread its axis is just west of the CV Islands, near 27W.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#38 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:16 am

Following up on NDG's comment, the tropical wave being discussed in this thread is what I circled below:

Image
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#39 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:26 am

gatorcane wrote:Following up on NDG's comment, the tropical wave being discussed in this thread is what I circled below:

Image

Thanks to you Gatorcane :).
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Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#40 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:30 am

Here is the right discussion about this twave :Bcool:

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016


A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic W of the Cape Verde
Islands extending from 09N-19N with axis near 27W, moving at 15
kt within the last 24 hours. Meteosat composite imagery show
Saharan dry air and dust in the northern wave environment.
Moderate moist air from surface to 850 mb and divergent flow in
the middle to upper levels support scattered moderate convection
from 07N-13 between 24W and 30W.
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