Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (Invest 97L is up)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11689
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#61 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:16 pm

12z Euro has the track of this tropical wave a little further south & a little slower, across the northern Leeward Islands into P.R.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11689
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#62 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:27 pm

12z Euro has the ridge to the north of the tropical wave by this weekend stronger on this run, thus a little more southerly track. Notice the higher than average heights across eastern Canada.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6738
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#63 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:29 pm

:uarrow: Hmmm... Maybe the Canadian is onto something.
2 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16137
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#64 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:34 pm

12z Euro tracks this wave over Puerto Rico and into South Florida. Certainly one to watch, especially if it tracks north of PR.
2 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12333
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#65 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:42 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271741 CCA
TWDAT


Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic west of the Cape
Verde Islands extends along 28W/29W from 10N-19N moving west 10
to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
low/trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded
within a high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 8N-13N between 24W-34W
.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 21643
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#66 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:48 pm

12Z Euro 850MB vort GIF:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6738
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#67 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:53 pm

Here is the latest 12z JMA run.

Image

By the way, what does the latest 12z UKMET show?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11689
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#68 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:54 pm

12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

Image
Last edited by NDG on Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6738
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#69 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:57 pm

NDG wrote:12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

So it seems at the moment that dry stable air and land interaction are the only two inhibitors.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12333
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#70 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:58 pm

NDG wrote:12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/160727185641.gif

Ok thanks and what does it mean in your opinion?
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11689
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#71 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:01 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

So it seems at the moment that dry stable air and land interaction are the only two inhibitors.


Yes, but, as we know that if wind shear is not going to be a big problem then the dry air around it may not get to it. The biggest problem for it that I see is going to be its fast track before the Leeward Islands and possible land interaction with P.R. & Hispaniola after that.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11689
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#72 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:02 pm

Gustywind wrote:
NDG wrote:12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/160727185641.gif

Ok thanks and what does it mean in your opinion?


Windshear will be minimal.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6738
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#73 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:05 pm

NDG wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

So it seems at the moment that dry stable air and land interaction are the only two inhibitors.


Yes, but, as we know that if wind shear is not going to be a big problem then the dry air around it may not get to it. The biggest problem for it that I see is going to be its fast track before the Leeward Islands and possible land interaction with P.R. & Hispaniola after that.

I'm guessing fast trade winds are still a problem?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12333
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#74 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:19 pm

NDG wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
NDG wrote:12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/160727185641.gif

Ok thanks and what does it mean in your opinion?


Windshear will be minimal.

Ok thanks to you. I was guessing that too :D
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6562
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#75 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 27, 2016 5:24 pm

will need to watch this one due to some model support although weak and has a good pattern for some development and may need to be watched in Florida and the Southeastern US

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service
2 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12333
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (06Z)

#76 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:20 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271741 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...correction for satellite time
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic west of the Cape
Verde Islands extends along 28W/29W from 10N-19N moving west 10
to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
low/trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded
within a high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 8N-13N between 24W-34W.
0 likes   

User avatar
Siker
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 885
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA / Williamstown, MA

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (Pouch 06L)

#77 Postby Siker » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:42 pm

Ends up in the Gulf eventually on the 00z GFS, no development.

Meanwhile, the Canadian:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 36
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (Pouch 06L)

#78 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:47 am

Euro still showing nothing, which in all likelihood will continue to be the case for the next few weeks. GFS on the other hand has gone completely nuts with a system with hurricane winds at 850MB developing over Africa in the long range.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Darvince
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 177
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:25 pm
Location: Phoenix AZ

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (Pouch 06L)

#79 Postby Darvince » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:14 am

Here's that mad solution:
Image

It develops the wave into a tropical storm while still over Africa, what the heck? :lol: :lol:
0 likes   
Storm2k forum is of Polandball.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6738
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (Pouch 06L)

#80 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 28, 2016 5:44 am

0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Big O, hurricanes1234, Socalhurcnegirl227 and 37 guests