Vigorous Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa - (Is INVEST 96L)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Vigorous Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa - (Is INVEST 96L)
We have the ECMWF and UKMET showing development within 5 days along with a closed low the CMC develops.
I believe the NHC may mention this area for possible development.
I circled the wave below. Broad circulation is very evident with deep convection starting to fire:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24
ECMWF:
UKMET:
CMC:
I believe the NHC may mention this area for possible development.
I circled the wave below. Broad circulation is very evident with deep convection starting to fire:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24
ECMWF:
UKMET:
CMC:
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
Each successive wave coming off Africa has been clearing out the SAL near the Cape Verde islands.
Do you think we will have a July invest or will the NHC assume an early organization will dissipate?
Do you think we will have a July invest or will the NHC assume an early organization will dissipate?
0 likes
- Kazmit
- Category 5
- Posts: 1915
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
- Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
I'm not too sure what will happen to this one. Every tropical wave this month that has moved off of Africa has failed to develop until they've reached the Pacific. As much as I would like it to develop, I doubt the conditions are favourable enough- the SAL is a giant storm killer
0 likes
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
I think the HWRF develops this too somewhat. Note the High above it.
http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee88 ... 7aqwll.png
http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee88 ... 7aqwll.png
0 likes
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023.
Go Gators! Go Jags!
Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023.
Go Gators! Go Jags!
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
Kazmit_ wrote:I'm not too sure what will happen to this one. Every tropical wave this month that has moved off of Africa has failed to develop until they've reached the Pacific. As much as I would like it to develop, I doubt the
conditions are favourable enough- the SAL is a giant storm killer
Everything is progressing as the calendar suggests it should. Pressures are falling, dry air is slowly getting pushed back, and the waves across Africa are increasing in intensity. I don't expect either of these waves to develop, but they're getting there.
0 likes
- Kazmit
- Category 5
- Posts: 1915
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
- Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
RL3AO wrote:Kazmit_ wrote:I'm not too sure what will happen to this one. Every tropical wave this month that has moved off of Africa has failed to develop until they've reached the Pacific. As much as I would like it to develop, I doubt the
conditions are favourable enough- the SAL is a giant storm killer
Everything is progressing as the calendar suggests it should. Pressures are falling, dry air is slowly getting pushed back, and the waves across Africa are increasing in intensity. I don't expect either of these waves to develop, but they're getting there.
True, I think by early August, we should start seeing conditions favourable enough for an increase in tropical activity. This dry air is quite common for July, but should back off by the time August rolls around.
0 likes
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Emmett_Brown
- Category 5
- Posts: 1343
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
- Location: Sarasota FL
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
Even if these initial waves get knocked down a bit by SAL, we will need to watch these as they get close to our neighborhood. Storms that form far east often don't make it across before recurving. The ones that form further west are more worrisome.
Last edited by Emmett_Brown on Tue Jul 26, 2016 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2903
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
I was wondering, when last did we see a period of inactivity this long? I mean if we don't get a storm by mid-August, that'll be 2 months without a tropical cyclone!
1 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- tarheelprogrammer
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1793
- Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
- Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
hurricanes1234 wrote:I was wondering, when last did we see a period of inactivity this long? I mean if we don't get a storm by mid-August, that'll be 2 months without a tropical cyclone!
2009 I believe.
0 likes
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
Emmett_Brown wrote:Even if these initial waves get knocked down a bit by SAL, we will need to watch these as they get close to our neighborhood. Storms that form far east often don't make it across before recurving. The ones that form further west are more worrisome.
That my contention also and the high mentioned in the above post from HWRF is of concern.
0 likes
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
tarheelprogrammer wrote:hurricanes1234 wrote:I was wondering, when last did we see a period of inactivity this long? I mean if we don't get a storm by mid-August, that'll be 2 months without a tropical cyclone!
2009 I believe.
2009 had not so much as a depression from late May until August 11 or so, so basically the record as far as recent seasons.. It's noteworthy that as far as named storms, 1999 nothing between June 18 and August 19, and 1998 had nothing (not even a depression) until July 27.
1 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
Pretty good signal from the GFS ensembles
You can see this massive wave about ready to roll off Africa
You can see this massive wave about ready to roll off Africa
0 likes
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
Looks intense at the moment.
0 likes
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023.
Go Gators! Go Jags!
Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023.
Go Gators! Go Jags!
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
gatorcane wrote:Pretty good signal from the GFS ensembles
You can see this massive wave about ready to roll off Africa
Hey Gatorcane, let's see how it could respond to the poof test first and then wait and see if a big if something potent is maybe in store.
0 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave To Exit Africa Tomorrow
Add the 12z JMA model to the list that develops this tropical wave about to exit Africa.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa
thing will chance on Atlantic side was we go into aug we now starting getting affect of La Niña more as we go into aug and sep i hope we ready because we see as active as we did PAC ocean past month models want start getting our side more active soon all say it dead season watch out we going for wild ride as aug come in i notice we seen last SAL coming by Florida now and Atlantic that well know happen in july let see how all place out i be here with you all ride i need keep eye because i here fl like rest of you guys on both coast
0 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139052
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located along the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development of this disturbance during the next several
days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located along the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development of this disturbance during the next several
days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
$$
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Fego
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 767
- Age: 64
- Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2004 7:58 pm
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
- Contact:
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa
Finally!, there we go. Kind of strange performance by the GFS.
0 likes
Go Giants! Go Niners! Go Warriors!
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139052
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Vigorous Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa - (Is INVEST 96L)
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: duilaslol, Google Adsense [Bot] and 98 guests