Wave between Bermuda and Greater Antilles

[Patrick99]

That upper level low is starting to lift out nicely, you can see it clearly on the WV loop. I could see even former 96L possibly moving into more favorable territory, shortly - there's still some energy there.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 11N26W to 18N24W moving W at 20 kt.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb low centered near 09N27W embedded
within the Monsoon Trough axis and troughing between 21W-34W.
Isolated moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave axis
near 13N...however a stronger complex of scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is farther SW from 07N-12N between 27W-
33W.

[Siker]

12z Euro doesn't develop this, looks to be racing pretty quickly causing it to be strung out.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html

Future 98L?

[Gustywind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html

Future 98L?

Should be an Invest during the next 36H given my untrained eyes.

[gatorcane]

It looks good at the moment but even latest SAT imagery is suggesting the convection is already starting to wane with little convection on NE side of rotation where highest concentration of SAL resides.

Note that no reliable computer models from 12Z guidance we have are developing this. Analyzing the model output, the issue appears to be too much SAL/dry air around that holds it back.

So I would not expect an invest until we see some more support.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Note that no reliable computer models from 12Z guidance we have are developing this. Analyzing the model output, the issue appears to be too much SAL/dry air around that holds it back.

So I would not expect an invest until we see some more support.

As I recall, Earl only had support from the models 2 or 3 days ago and before that everything was focused on 96L

[abajan]

For what it's worth, here is meteorologist Alyono's comment about this wave:

this is looking very well organized this morning

It was mistakenly made in the ex-96L thread, as evidenced in his subsequent comments there:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118089&start=140#p2516290
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118089&start=140#p2516292

If I've misunderstood the system to which Alyono was referring, my apologies to him.

[centuryv58]

SO, is it looking good or bad?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 030004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

Tropical wave extends from 10N-19N with axis near 28W, moving W
at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. Even though the wave is in a
favorable deep layer wind shear environment, Saharan dry air and
dust are engulfing the wave, thus hindering the development of
deep convection. CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb show dry
air intrusion west of the wave axis. Isolated showers are possible
from 10N-18N between 26W and 32W.

[abajan]

SO, is it looking good or bad?

Looks darned good to me:

[Steve H.]

Damn, and I'm getting my roof repaired in 3 weeks. Maybe I should hold off?

[Caneman12]

If this thing can survive once in the caribbean this has a chance to develop as well

[NDG]

We may see model support for development over the next couple of days, might be a similar set up as Earl as it approached the Lesser Antilles that its fast track was hard for it to initially close off a surface circulation.
I don't see any problems with windshear in the short term.

[floridasun78]

ex96l may be helping it by killing dry air that was issue with 96l we see shear is next few days as move more west

[hurricanehunter69]

I'd bet on this wave merging with ex 96L and getting invested in the (of all places ) east Caribbean.

[chaser1]

ex96l may be helping it by killing dry air that was issue with 96l we see shear is next few days as move more west

I agree. 96L seems to be fighting the good fight for her compadre to the east. So long as this newer wave can continue to convect, I'm also seeing a new surge of moisture pushing west and theres no doubt that I'm seeing some broad scale turning on the N.E. side of the wave's convection. Still no model support for anything in the MDR but I"m just not anticipating that this will simply go away. I'm slightly puzzled that this isn't already an invest.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016



Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 20N34W
to 06N34W moving west 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models.
Wave is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture with
Saharan dry air and dust NW of the wave, as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is west of the wave axis from 05N-10N between 34W-
42W.

[Blown Away]

Lots of convection with this wave... I could see NHC marking this spot soon...

[Kazmit]

Lots of convection with this wave... I could see NHC marking this spot soon...

Definitely. They might also re-invest 96L once it has a decent chance to develop again.