Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[gatorcane]

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased. The latest and ECMWF and UKMET runs show some possible development right along the northern Gulf coast near Fl Panhandle in about 4-6 days from now

[Ivanhater]

12 Euro does indeed look like a possible Tropical Storm along NW Florida over very hot waters...

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET still bullish... I expect NHC will be mentioning this area soon if model trends continue:

[TheStormExpert]

Ukmet keeps it over water longer too, hmmm...

[PTrackerLA]

If the Euro solution was about 150 miles further offshore could be dealing with more than a flooding event. Sort of reminds me of Danny from the late 90's, it's been a while since we've seen a true home grown system in the northern GOM.

[TheStormExpert]

Increased probability of tropical cyclone genesis from 12z NCEP Ensembles.

[Dean4Storms]

12Z ECM has gusts at 10M approaching 60-65 kts and if anything the ECM is usually on the conservative side with intensities.
Will be watching this one close for sure!

[psyclone]

I am most interested in the rain potential. ..we got 2' of rain a year ago from a similar set up. HPC has a 10" QPF bullseye southwest of cedar key over the next week. Someone is likely to get dumped on regardless of any coherent TC development. Definitely worth watching.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

If the Euro solution was about 150 miles further offshore could be dealing with more than a flooding event. Sort of reminds me of Danny from the late 90's, it's been a while since we've seen a true home grown system in the northern GOM.

yeah it has definitely been a good minute since a decent system formed and sustained/grew that would be considered "home grown" conditions have just been so hostile between the waters southeast of miami all the way into the GOM. i think this may be the season we see atleast one good homegrown storm impact some part of the US.

[wxman57]

Been busy all day with Earl, Ivette, & Omais. It does look like there may be a fair chance of a TS developing in the NE Gulf next Wed/Thu. Will probably move north and inland into the FL Panhandle. May be a very big rain producer.

[Dean4Storms]

Been busy all day with Earl, Ivette, & Omais. It does look like there may be a fair chance of a TS developing in the NE Gulf next Wed/Thu. Will probably move north and inland into the FL Panhandle. May be a very big rain producer.

Yea, that is what NWS Mobile thinks at this point unless it is able to stay out over the water longer than anticipated, that the biggest threat could be heavy rain event for several days in which going back and forth on Twitter with them they also pointed out soggy ground and tree's topple easier in less wind.

[Nimbus]

These systems that form at the tail end of fronts are always a challenge to forecast.
There is an upper level low to the east of Florida producing a circulation that might keep whatever develops from immediately moving north over land.

[Alyono]

I'd like to see the GFS and Canadian also showing a low offshore. GFS insists the low will remain over land and the Canadian is insisting that nothing will even occur.

Very low confidence forecast at this time

[SouthFLTropics]

Media is reporting that a tornado has touched down in New Orleans causing several buildings to collapse.

[KatDaddy]

Its that time of year to watch the GOM much more closely with the warm SSTs. I expect the NHC will begin to mention the NE GOM in the upcoming days.

[Nimbus]

Media is reporting that a tornado has touched down in New Orleans causing several buildings to collapse.

A low surface pressure 29.88 was reported by a ship at 29.60 -88.50.
I'm not expecting an invest over a ship report but might be the general area for us to watch.

[mobilebay]

Interesting to say the least. Right at my backdoor. I've been watching Earl and Epac and haven't even noticed this.

[northjaxpro]

We will monitor the extreme NE GOM over the next several days. The steering flow does not look be be very pronounced. The flow possibly would help to drift any potential of a system slowly northward. However, there will be other potential variables as to how close to the coast or how far offshore any potential system could be. Rainfall potential really could be very significant if any potential of a tropical system manifests itself, especially the NW FL.panhandle and North-NorthCentral Gulf region.

Definitely worth monitoring and watch carefully. Models have gradually begun to show the potential, including the EURO.

[Dean4Storms]

I'd like to see the GFS and Canadian also showing a low offshore. GFS insists the low will remain over land and the Canadian is insisting that nothing will even occur.

Very low confidence forecast at this time

Yes, best they can say for now is a possible heavy rain event along the NE Gulf Coast for now and stay up to date on future forecasts.

[Alyono]

0Z UKMET going with a strong TC