Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[Kazmit]

Where would this develop? East of Florida/Georgia?

[Aric Dunn]

I see the circ has shot out away from the mid level circ still sitting offshore. would not be surprised if again later today and tonight another low level circ develops offshore and rotates around.

[psyclone]

heaviest rain has mercifully remained offshore...after some heavy rain this morning it's down to light stuff here...there's some heavy stuff offshore but it may not get onshore. I wouldn't be surprised if we get some drying later this afternoon/evening as we reach D-min with a refire overnight. this should really knock the sea temps down in the northeast gulf..the shallow water responds fast but it's a 2 way street so the more it falls the quicker it will rebound when normal weather returns. in the meantime the break from the heat is quite nice.

[StormHunter72]

heaviest rain has mercifully remained offshore...after some heavy rain this morning it's down to light stuff here...there's some heavy stuff offshore but it may not get onshore. I wouldn't be surprised if we get some drying later this afternoon/evening as we reach D-min with a refire overnight. this should really knock the sea temps down in the northeast gulf..the shallow water responds fast but it's a 2 way street so the more it falls the quicker it will rebound when normal weather returns. in the meantime the break from the heat is quite nice.

Not here and I would not be surprised if this sits here much longer it may re develop...a new cdo.

[StormHunter72]

Low over land has collapsed

[psyclone]

If you loop the radar you'll notice the rain echoes weaken as they near the coast. meanwhile off to the east the rain has at least temporarily stopped along the I-75 corridor in Sumter/Hernando/Pasco...so we can some erosion in both coverage and intensity on land. Taking a look at radar estimated totals on the Tampa Bay radar and you'll see a 16" jackpot southwest of cedar key...no one on land comes even close to the rain totals offshore. there's a pretty good band taking shape west of the Pasco/north Pinellas area but if it behaves as the other rain has it may weaken as it nears land..if it doesn't someone is going to get really hammered.

[cycloneye]

Down to 0%.

A weak area of low pressure located inland over northeastern Florida
is generating showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the Gulf of
Mexico. This system is drifting northeastward to northward, and is
expected to move farther inland today and Monday with little chance
of tropical cyclone formation. Nonetheless, heavy rainfall that
could result in flooding is forecast over portions of north-central
and northern Florida, including parts of the Florida panhandle,
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low... near 0 percent

[Stormcenter]

Now it's time to focus again on roughly the same area.

[Dean4Storms]

How was that not at least classified a TD when it was over water is my question. We had a warm core low, closed LL circulation clearly now seen on Satellite and winds 20-30 mph!

[N2FSU]

Visible satellite loop shows that the low level circulation has stopped its northeast movement and is maybe even drifting northwest or west now. Or are my eyes deceiving me?

[Dean4Storms]

Visible satellite loop shows that the low level circulation has stopped its northeast movement and is maybe even drifting northwest or west now. Or are my eyes deceiving me?

It does appear to have slowed and maybe turning more northward.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm wondering how long from now does the current LL circulation last before all that robust convection over the NE Gulf forms another Low?

[N2FSU]

New 12z Euro: tightens it up maybe a little and still has it on the western Florida panhandle Friday:

[Dean4Storms]

12 ECM now with a 1007mb Low over Destin @120hrs with 10m Wind Gusts along the Coast to 50kts.

[Steve]

12 ECM now with a 1007mb Low over Destin @120hrs with 10m Wind Gusts along the Coast to 50kts.

New QPF maximum 20"+ right ese of you along South Walton and Bay Counties.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1470598512

[Hammy]

If this manages to strengthen to TS intensity, while being just inland, would it still get upgraded?

[psyclone]

the earlier QPF max estimates to the southwest of cedar key verified nicely. there's now an 18" pixel showing on the tampa radar storm total in that area...and it's still raining there at a good clip. A total of 2' looks doable... maybe more. fortunately those insane totals have remained offshore with much more modest amounts on land that quickly taper away from the coast keeping our watersheds in good shape..so far. This has not been a repeat of last year's torrential rain event that featured those numbers over land.

[TheStormExpert]

If this manages to strengthen to TS intensity, while being just inland, would it still get upgraded?

That's a good question cause Bill from last season was still a TD a good long ways inland.

[tailgater]

Visible satellite loop shows that the low level circulation has stopped its northeast movement and is maybe even drifting northwest or west now. Or are my eyes deceiving me?

Yes I see that as well, zoom in on this radar loop and speed it up.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JAX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[bamajammer4eva]

Was parked over Lake City for hours now looks like it's meandering towards Mayo