Area of convection in SE Caribbean

[NDG]

abajan,made an update to the title of thread as the area you mentioned at the first place has raced west and now is East of Trinidad & Tobago.

Yeah, so I noticed. It's moved so fast that I'm not even sure it's the same area or if the first one dissipated and a new one formed.

I don't think the area of disturbed wx east of Trinidad & Tobago has anything to do with the Tropical Wave Abajan mentioned yesterday morning, there's no way the tropical wave would had traveled from 37W to 58W in a day and a half.

[cycloneye]

abajan,made an update to the title of thread as the area you mentioned at the first place has raced west and now is East of Trinidad & Tobago.

Yeah, so I noticed. It's moved so fast that I'm not even sure it's the same area or if the first one dissipated and a new one formed.

Really,many times following the waves and ITCZ is confusing as sometimes Tafb introduces a wave in the MDR and other times they drop waves.This area I have followed since you made the thread and is the same area now approaching TT and northern SA you described at first post at 8N-37W.Nothing formed in ITCZ ahead of this.

[NDG]

abajan,made an update to the title of thread as the area you mentioned at the first place has raced west and now is East of Trinidad & Tobago.

Yeah, so I noticed. It's moved so fast that I'm not even sure it's the same area or if the first one dissipated and a new one formed.

Really,many times following the waves and ITCZ is confusing as sometimes Tafb introduces a wave in the MDR and other times they drop waves.This area I have followed since you made the thread and is the same area now approaching TT and northern SA you described at first post at 8N-37W.Nothing formed in ITCZ ahead of this.

You are correct, I did go back to a 48 hr satellite loop and it is the area of convection that was at 37W yesterday morning, but it is not associated with a tropical wave as abajan thought, the tropical wave is still near 45W, the same tropical wave that models have coming through the Windward and Leeward Islands by Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

Only ITCZ related.

[Siker]

~5/51 Euro ensembles develop this into a tropical storm in the Gulf.

Also a few GEFS members, now that I look at it.

[Kazmit]

The NHC could be mentioning this soon...

[NDG]

Perhaps the Tropical at 45W will need its own thread fairly soon.

[Siker]

Perhaps the Tropical at 45W will need its own thread fairly soon.

Yes, that is the actual energy that the current very weak model support develops.

[stormlover2013]

Can u show us the images

[Siker]

Can u show us the images

It's really not much to look at right now and I'm not sure if I'm even allowed to post the Euro ensemble images. Here is the GEFS, those lows in the Western Gulf are this system plus some added energy from the Western Caribbean:

[floridasun78]

i see tropical wave going run into south America may bring rain to Olympics games i dont see any thing going into Caribbean that wave tooo far south go into carribbean

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS plows this through Hispaniola and if so this won't be much but looking at it I believe the GFS might be too far north based on the steering currents but I could be wrong

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[AJC3]

i see tropical wave going run into south America may bring rain to Olympics games i dont see any thing going into Caribbean that wave tooo far south go into carribbean

That would be a TW with one serious case of wanderlust. Rio is pretty close to the Tropic of Capricorn near 23S.

[Dave C]

i see tropical wave going run into south America may bring rain to Olympics games i dont see any thing going into Caribbean that wave tooo far south go into carribbean

That would be a TW with one serious case of wanderlust. Rio is pretty close to the Tropic of Capricorn near 23S.

talk about cross equatorial flow!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016


Tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles extending from 10N-
20N with axis near 57W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. Satellite derived data indicate the wave is in a favorable
to neutral deep layer wind shear region. However, Saharan dry air
and dust cover most of the wave environment, in part limiting the
convection to scattered showers from 09N-13N between 54W and 58W.