Tropical Wave south of CV Islands (Is INVEST 98L)

[Siker]

The 12z Euro, GFS, and CMC all develop this briefly, with the Euro the most aggressive.

Current image:

[TheStormExpert]

Per the latest 12z Euro the wave behind this one may really need to be watched for development.

[gatorcane]

Just so everybody is clear, I circled the waves of interest.

Pouch 97l is this thread.

The wave further inland over Africa is the wave the Euro is developing heading west in the MDR through 240 hours:

[Siker]

Models are in good agreement on a vigorous area of vorticity emerging with this wave around ~12N and subsequently merging with another area diving out of the northeast. They then vary in how this interaction moves / broadens the overall low: the GFS and CMC depict a broadening system jumping to the northwest while passing over (or even north of) the Cape Verde Islands, while the Euro depicts a further south / west interaction that forms a weak tropical cyclone (before promptly fizzling out). A more northerly route would result in having to deal with sub-26C SST's and the burst of SAL accompanying this wave.

GFS vorticity:



Euro vorticity:

[Siker]

18z GFS a little more organized and closer to the Euro in location.

[blp]

Probs are up for this. I think NHC will tag this as an invest once it emerges.

[blp]

Uncle Sal will not be a problem for this pouch.

[gatorcane]

Lets see what the 00z guidance shows, no doubt today's guidance has trended a bit more bullish. If we see the same with overnight guidance, I think the NHC starts to mention this wave for some possible development.

[TheStormExpert]

Uncle Sal will not be a problem for this pouch.

Uncle SAL looks to be retreating hopefully for good!

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS and 12zEuro both develop this to some degree with the Euro being more gung ho

Edit: what I'm seeing on the euro is the system behind which the GFS tries and does develop in the long range

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[USTropics]

Through 72 hours, 00z ECMWF still showing development on this run:



120 hours, strengthening:

[gatorcane]

NHC still not mentioning this area despite the Euro showing development on consecutive runs within the 120 hour timeframe

[NDG]

NHC still not mentioning this area despite the Euro showing development on consecutive runs within the 120 hour timeframe

Very surprised they have not highlighted this TW knowing how closely they follow the Euro, maybe because the Euro has been too aggressive at times over the EPAC might be why they are putting less weight on it. But it was correct on Earl and also did fairly well with the system on the northern gulf coast.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/764793560197496832



 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/764793089646997504

[Kazmit]

Looks like conditions could be conductive for some development, as SAL should not be much of a problem here. I'm surprised the NHC hasn't put a yellow X on this one, but they might soon.

[cycloneye]

Image does not update.Stays at 12:45 UTC.



Image below updates every half an hour.

[tarheelprogrammer]

http://oi66.tinypic.com/2qav91d.jpg

Very healthy wave. Good chance it could develop.

[NDG]

Tropical wave near 38W has really cleared out the SAL & moisten up the lower & mid levels ahead of Pouch 17L, so indeed this TW may have a chance to develop.

[Kazmit]

Seems to be the best candidate for Fiona ATM... I Wonder what it will do.

[StormHunter72]

Looks like the Cape Verde part of the season has begun.