Tropical wave emerging West Africa (Is Invest 90L)

[Hurricaneman]

the models seem to be less gung ho on pouch21 and now more interested in this feature so we'll see

The 0zGFS has this feature moving off of Africa in 5 days and forming a broad low trying to close off in 6 days so this may need to be watched since the Euro seems to like this feature too

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Hammy]

Is this the system seems to develop almost immediately into a storm when it comes off?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is this the system seems to develop almost immediately into a storm when it comes off?

Yes

[Caneman12]

yes it looks like it will be in a very favorable enviroment

[Hammy]

Euro now has development within 120 hours, I expect it to start showing up in the 48-120 hour discussion sometime tomorrow.

[AutoPenalti]

Never would have expected to track a vigorous wave over land. Especially over Chad.

[Kazmit]

Never would have expected to track a vigorous wave over land. Especially over Chad.

Yeah, this is quite far inland to be tracking. But this is the origin of the waves, over Northern Africa.

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS shows this wave coming off Africa around 90hrs. and tracking across the Atlantic developing some around hour 240.

[cycloneye]

This wave is now Pouch 22L.



http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2016/P22L.html

[Hurricaneman]

looking at the 12zGFS this basically follows 98L on a recurve path because 98L cuts a weakness in the ridge

Ridge rebuilds and this may be a Bermuda track this run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[tarheelprogrammer]

OTS on this run. Though Bermuda is a target it seems. It stays somewhat weak. Things could change but it is a typical set up for the past 10 years. Waves come across the Atlantic only to be recurved. Though it is a typical set up in the past as well it has been more frequent the past 10 years. Someone in the long range thread posted a chart showing all the storms that have formed over the past 10 years and showed the recurves being a lot more frequent recently than in the past. Though that is likely to change and this recurve does happen in the long range.

[Hammy]

Euro seems to bring development to within 96 hours now, odd that there's still no mention on the TWO.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Euro seems to bring development to within 96 hours now, odd that there's still no mention on the TWO.

OTS faster as well.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro seems to bring development to within 96 hours now, odd that there's still no mention on the TWO.

OTS faster as well.

This is very typical with systems that develop right off the west coast of Africa or even while still over Africa in this case.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Euro seems to bring development to within 96 hours now, odd that there's still no mention on the TWO.

OTS faster as well.

This is very typical with systems that develop right off the west coast of Africa or even while still over Africa in this case.

Of course just pointing out how it moves it out faster which is great because I do not want any of these waves moving west across the basin. Rather see them swim with the fishes lol.

[Alyono]

Euro seems to bring development to within 96 hours now, odd that there's still no mention on the TWO.

Because the EC solution is laughable

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/765640495041085440

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS blows this up on a recurve path due to a weakness created by 98l all in the long-range. I am not buying this solution at all as far as how strong it is making this. Watch it drop this solution or show a completely different track next run.

[Hurricaneman]

looking at the 0zGFS we may need to watch this as it seems like there may be a ridge bridge around 180hrs and it doesn't seem like future Fiona{td6} is causing enough of a weakness to take this out to sea

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Hammy]

Euro no longer seems to be developing this at the 96 hour point, it only has a very broad 1010 mb low, as opposed to 1006 last run and 1004 the previous. Development looking less likely, and probably why NHC isn't mentioning the system.