TW between Hispaniola and Bermuda

[NDG]

This tropical wave looks interesting to me this morning, it has developed a weak broad circulation. No model support for much development, surface pressures are high but have fallen 2-3 mb during the past 24 hrs as indicated by a buoy in this area. UL winds are not the best and forecasted not to improve much if any.
Another thing working against development is that there's some dry air just to the south and over the broad circulation developing. Just something to keep an eye on, IMO.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

[Nimbus]

Since its under an anticyclone I'm assuming there is some low pressure at the surface causing the convection?

[NDG]

Since its under an anticyclone I'm assuming there is some low pressure at the surface causing the convection?

Not quiet, there's really no surface convergence, convection is mainly due to its proximity to the TUTT west of it, surface trough is well west of the convection tonight, broad surface low is not as defined as earlier this morning.

[northjaxpro]

I checked the 500 mb, 700 mb and 850 mb vorticity and each show a strung out area of vorticity, although this convective area has been persistent for the past couple of days. As NDG pointed out, dry air is very evident to the south and that may help explain primarily why the models are not developing this at this time. It is definitely an area to keep a watchful eye, especiall if it continues to persist, but nothng in the next few days.