Tropical Wave East of Leeward Islands - (Is INVEST 93L)

[colbroe]

An Atlantic Ocean 1012 mb low pressure center is near 13N45W.
Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 06N to 15N between 40W and 51W.
This is the one abajan would have mentioned

[abajan]

Actually, this would have to be yet another system, because the one I mentioned is probably currently near 25W (I think).

[abajan]

This is actually starting to look quite impressive, both on the visible and IR satellite loops:




I wonder where it's headed. The tropical Atlantic in general seems to be primed to explode this week.

[LarryWx]

This is actually starting to look quite impressive, both on the visible and IR satellite loops:

I wonder where it's headed. The tropical Atlantic in general seems to be primed to explode this week.

Abajan,
The 0Z/6Z GFS and the 0Z Euro all move this weak surface low WNW to the Leeward Islands Friday and then just north of the Greater Antilles and toward the SE Bahamas about a week from now but it is weakened to almost nothing before the Leewards and onward. So, the GFS/Euro don't like this for development. OTOH, the Crazy Uncle (CMC) moves it on a similar path and keeps it as a weak low. It eventually makes it into the Gulf as a TC moving WNW toward the LA/TX area at the end of the run (day 10). But the CMC is not at all reliable as we know.

[LarryWx]

^Once again, the sane GFS (12Z) doesn't like this and does nothing with it. However, once again, the insane CMC (12Z) develops it into a TC and has it as a H in the GOM at the end of its run moving WNW. Don't bet on this!

[LarryWx]

Although I'm not betting on this to develop being that the CMC is the only major model liking it, I'm also not at all writing this off yet. There is a persistent low level circulation near 14N, 50W with some convection that looks to move WNW far I nto the western basin assuming it doesn't completely fall apart. Also, we're in the heart of the season with a favorable MJO inside the circle.

[USTropics]

I believe this is association with P32L:



http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2016/P32L.html

SYNOPSIS 2016090600

P32L
14N, 45W
925 hPa

ECMWF: Tracks WNW. Position is a bit erratic with a couple of OW maxima “competing” within the pouch (during the 12-24 hour period, and later that results in a 60-72 hour westward shift). Max OW is 3x10-9 s-2 in the analysis. Weakens near Puerto Rico, with nothing after 96 hours.

GFS: Tracks more poleward than ECMWF, with less interaction with islands, which may help P32L last longer. OW starts at almost 4x10-9 s-2 and slowly decreases. Loses CL-trough intersection after 96 hours.

UKMET:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -6.5 1.3 track 96h
GFS -7.0 2.9 track 108h
UKMET
HWGEN

[LarryWx]

Well, once again, the GFS does nothing with it while the CMC once again has a TC in the Gulf. Just something to keep a close eye on.

[Gustywind]

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
624 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016



A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic waters extending from
11N to 21N with axis near 53W. The wave has been repositioned
from former position farther to the east, based on satellite,
surface observations and latest global model guidance. Unfavorable
deep layer wind shear and Saharan dry air and dust hinder
convection at the time.

[LarryWx]

Thanks, Gusty. This wave/low (pouch 32L) is now centered near 14N, 52W. Model update: though it doesn't like it for development due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions, the 0Z Euro does (and has for several runs more or less) bring its 850 vorticity WNW and then NW all of the way to the SE coast in about 8 days. So, steeringwise, this would seemingly be some threat to the SE CONUS IF there were to be an actual TC unexpectedly form from this. So, this is still worth monitoring just in case even though chances are low that a TC will actually form since it appears to be about the only game in town that doesn't look like a fish anytime soon other than the low chance ex-92L has to do anything.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html
Nice feature, JB Likes it, no model support...

[CFLHurricane]

I like this one, too. Tight circulation ramping up on the MMIC-TPW. I'd expect the NHC to pull out the crayons in this one soon. ✏️

[LarryWx]

^Yeah, this one is pretty large with a clearcut LLC, it is over water that is solidly warmer than normal, its 850 mb vorticity is progged by the best model (Euro) to be steered to the SE CONUS in 8 days, the MJO is and is progged by the EPS (most accurate for MJO) to remain favorable for September genesis (inside the circle), and we're in the heart of the season. So, I'm not writing this off at this time for a potential threat despite non-CMC models not liking it for genesis due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions. Chances have to be considered low as of now but not near zero imo. Any unexpected genesis wound probably mean a problem for the SE Conus down the road. I'm surprised this isn't even being mentioned in the TWOs.

[LarryWx]

The Crazy Uncle (12z CMC) is till not done with its love affair with this as it hits NC with a TS in 6 days (9/13). I certainly wouldn't buy the usually awful CMC when it is on its own but I also don't competely discount something like that happening.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2016

Tropical wave in the west Atlantic extends along 52W/53W from
12N-20N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is
embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the Total
Precipitable Water Imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are from 14N-18N between 50W-54W.

[Gustywind]

Thanks, Gusty. This wave/low (pouch 32L) is now centered near 14N, 52W. Model update: though it doesn't like it for development due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions, the 0Z Euro does (and has for several runs more or less) bring its 850 vorticity WNW and then NW all of the way to the SE coast in about 8 days. So, steeringwise, this would seemingly be some threat to the SE CONUS IF there were to be an actual TC unexpectedly form from this. So, this is still worth monitoring just in case even though chances are low that a TC will actually form since it appears to be about the only game in town that doesn't look like a fish anytime soon other than the low chance ex-92L has to do anything.

Thanks LarryWx , i try to do my best by posting daily for everbody . I'm glad to know that someone noticed that and write it is even better .
Our Pro Mets expected few showers and isolated tstorms tommorow night and Friday for Guadeloupe but no more.

[LarryWx]

You're welcome, Gusty.

Well, though it doesn't like this for development, the latest Euro (12Z) still takes the vorticity WNW and then NW to the SE Conus in about a week. I still look at this as having a low chance of becoming a TC down the road (10% as of now), but that also means I'm still not yet writing this off.

[Gustywind]

You're welcome, Gusty.

Well, though it doesn't like this for development, the latest Euro (12Z) still takes the vorticity WNW and then NW to the SE Conus in about a week. I still look at this as having a low chance of becoming a TC down the road (10% as of now), but that also means I'm still not yet writing this off.

Thanks to you i appreciate my friend.

[abajan]

This wave is currently generating quite number of thunderstorms:


Real-Time Lightning Maps

[floridasun78]

i been watching area cross ocean put look wont outlook any time soon dont models support