Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

[Steve]

It is ultra clear to me that my guess or 14 NS wIll have been low. This is almost fringe around a pulse I think is coming. This could be the early part of it just the same. Even though a lot of systems have been weak, several of them and unnamed systems as well, have hung around. Even slow moving TD's take a lot of heat out of the tropics and subtropics. Even part of the Eastern season had Gaston and Ian kind of just spinning out there. Still you have to figure with the record heat this year, regardless of the fact that it wasn't necessarily across all the oceans, there is still enough to get 5 more named storms. That would take us to P. There are no guarantees, but it's not out of the question we could get to R or S. I didn't have an opinion either way, but many respectable posters were saying this would be a later season despite the early numbers. Nobody knows yet, but 2016 could end up kind of crazy even outside of Jacksonville.

[Kazmit]

Yep, again, just like that, we have 3 Tropical Cyclones at once. That's the weather for you. And some posters have been saying this the season of naked swirls and the Atlantic sucks but the weather makes the final say. Just a few examples.
Earl:
http://video.newsserve.net/v/20160804/1 ... update.jpg

Gaston:

http://cdn.phys.org/newman/gfx/news/hir ... espowe.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/08/ ... 216756.jpg

https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/20 ... 409&crop=1

http://www.livescience.com/images/i/000 ... size=660:*

Hermine:
http://news.justinweather.com/wp-conten ... 20x202.jpg

Thanks for those images.

[wxmann_91]

I think its stopped struggling.

One of the storms formed on land and the other two are sheared messes. These types of storms wouldn't have been named in other basins, or during other time periods.

[wxmann_91]

Yep, again, just like that, we have 3 Tropical Cyclones at once. That's the weather for you. And some posters have been saying this the season of naked swirls and the Atlantic sucks but the weather makes the final say. Just a few examples.
Earl:
http://video.newsserve.net/v/20160804/1 ... update.jpg

Gaston:

http://cdn.phys.org/newman/gfx/news/hir ... espowe.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/08/ ... 216756.jpg

https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/20 ... 409&crop=1

http://www.livescience.com/images/i/000 ... size=660:*

Hermine:
http://news.justinweather.com/wp-conten ... 20x202.jpg

Earl struggled until frictional effects from land allowed it to consolidate last-min.

Hermine struggled until baroclinic processes gave it the boost it needed to intensify.

Gaston is the only one that became a strong storm on its own accord, and even then that did not happen until it exited the MDR.

Fact: much of the Atlantic basin, especially the MDR, is hostile for tropical system development.

[chaser1]

Fact: much of the Atlantic basin, especially the MDR, is hostile for tropical system development.

Fact: Weather patterns change (Mother Nature is just funny that way lol)

[Hammy]

Earl struggled until frictional effects from land allowed it to consolidate last-min.

Hermine struggled until baroclinic processes gave it the boost it needed to intensify.

Gaston is the only one that became a strong storm on its own accord, and even then that did not happen until it exited the MDR.

Fact: much of the Atlantic basin, especially the MDR, is hostile for tropical system development.

There were quite literally no baroclinic processes involved in Hermine until it had exited the east coast--the hurricane in the Gulf was in fact very monsoonal and tropical, similar to some of the WPac systems. Earl did not strengthen due to land friction--that usually weakens storms--it strengthened because it entered a more favorable upper-air environment, you can tell if you watch the satellite loop at the time. As for Gaston, it is more a matter of steering patterns--we are seeing less strong storms in the MDR because, once they form, they aren't spending much time in the MDR to start with but instead turning north.

[wxmann_91]

Fact: much of the Atlantic basin, especially the MDR, is hostile for tropical system development.

Fact: Weather patterns change (Mother Nature is just funny that way lol)

True, but I wrote that in the context of this thread -- yes, the Atlantic basin has been struggling lately.

[wxmann_91]

Fact: much of the Atlantic basin, especially the MDR, is hostile for tropical system development.

Fact: Weather patterns change (Mother Nature is just funny that way lol)

True, but I wrote that in the context of this thread -- yes, the Atlantic basin has been struggling lately.

[centuryv58]

Fact: much of the Atlantic basin, especially the MDR, is hostile for tropical system development.

Fact: Weather patterns change (Mother Nature is just funny that way lol)

True, but I wrote that in the context of this thread -- yes, the Atlantic basin has been struggling lately.

No, it hasn't really. 12 named storms so far.

[wxmann_91]

Earl struggled until frictional effects from land allowed it to consolidate last-min.

Hermine struggled until baroclinic processes gave it the boost it needed to intensify.

Gaston is the only one that became a strong storm on its own accord, and even then that did not happen until it exited the MDR.

Fact: much of the Atlantic basin, especially the MDR, is hostile for tropical system development.

There were quite literally no baroclinic processes involved in Hermine until it had exited the east coast--the hurricane in the Gulf was in fact very monsoonal and tropical, similar to some of the WPac systems. Earl did not strengthen due to land friction--that usually weakens storms--it strengthened because it entered a more favorable upper-air environment, you can tell if you watch the satellite loop at the time. As for Gaston, it is more a matter of steering patterns--we are seeing less strong storms in the MDR because, once they form, they aren't spending much time in the MDR to start with but instead turning north.

A NHC forecaster tweeted that enhancement from a baroclinic trough helped Hermine strengthen in the Gulf:
https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/stat ... 8861407232

Earl did have a good upper-level environment, but the low-level environment was junk and that delayed it's strengthening. Regardless if upper-levels or lower-levels, unfavorable is unfavorable.

Gaston spent quite a lot of time being sheared (like Karl is now) before it exited the MDR into an environment of less shear.

[tolakram]

So for those who think the Atlantic is struggling, are you also thinking we will end up below normal ACE by the end of the season? If not then how do you define struggling?

[wxmann_91]

So for those who think the Atlantic is struggling, are you also thinking we will end up below normal ACE by the end of the season? If not then how do you define struggling?

I think we'll end up with a little bit below normal ACE, though not by much. Mean is an interesting idea though, because many of the storms nowadays would not have been classified even 30 years ago. If those storms classified today were classified in the 1970's-80's, would our ACE still be close to average? Would 12 named storms still seem like a lot?

Alternatively, perhaps the period from 1995-2010 was way anomalously above average, in which case we're just reverting back to a norm. Maybe, on average, the Atlantic MDR is hostile for tropical cyclone development and we just never had a large enough dataset to see how inactive it is normally, so the "mean ACE" was skewed towards the more active seasons. In which case, not only is the basin struggling, but the answer to the titular question is, "that's normal for the Atlantic."

My point is, with the limited dataset we have, the mean ACE does not mean much. What matters is how storms behave. This year, they have struggled, albeit less so than they have in previous years to this point in the season.

[tolakram]

So for those who think the Atlantic is struggling, are you also thinking we will end up below normal ACE by the end of the season? If not then how do you define struggling?

I think we'll end up with a little bit below normal ACE, though not by much. Mean is an interesting idea though, because many of the storms nowadays would not have been classified even 30 years ago.

This is why ACE is a better stat. Not a lot of ACE is generated by weak sloppy storms.

[Hammy]

Mean is an interesting idea though, because many of the storms nowadays would not have been classified even 30 years ago. If those storms classified today were classified in the 1970's-80's, would our ACE still be close to average? Would 12 named storms still seem like a lot?

I'm not sure which storms wouldn't have been classified back then, aside from a few of the subtropical storms in previous years.

[TheStormExpert]

You know this season is really struggling when each of the three recent tropical cyclones have been sheared apart at least once in their lifespan.

[AxaltaRacing24]

You know this season is really struggling when each of the three recent tropical cyclones have been sheared apart at least once in their lifespan.

But not as bad as last season. We have double the ACE and almost the season totals of last year and Sept is not even over yet. We are being too pessimistic about a normal season in the Atlantic. If everything was not sheared apart and magically strengthened we would not have a normal season and it would be way above normal. Which was not even expected to begin with.

[Ptarmigan]

So for those who think the Atlantic is struggling, are you also thinking we will end up below normal ACE by the end of the season? If not then how do you define struggling?

I think we'll end up with a little bit below normal ACE, though not by much. Mean is an interesting idea though, because many of the storms nowadays would not have been classified even 30 years ago.

This is why ACE is a better stat. Not a lot of ACE is generated by weak sloppy storms.

I like using ACE/Storm. 2005 had an average ACE/Storm, while 1998 had an above average ACE/Storm.

[1900hurricane]

I am currently in the process of tabbing out all sorts of data, by the way. I started mostly with the more active years, but I'm slowly making progress filling it in. What I have done so far is posted below, and I'll probably do a repost once I've got everything complete going back to at least 1995.



*EDIT: oops, meant to put this in the other thread. I'll leave it here too though, just for reference.

[HurricaneRyan]

As Matthew has just proven tonight, anything can happen if the conditions are right.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Matthew and Gaston have showed us what a near normal season can still do. It only takes one storm to find the right conditions and BOOM.