Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

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TheStormExpert
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Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#1 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:54 am

Here we are on September 7th just days away from the peak day of the season with nothing much to talk about other than a struggling area of interest near the Cape Verde Islands.

My question is why is the Atlantic struggling so badly to produce at least a single tropical cyclone near the peak day in what was supposed to be an near normal to slightly above average season?

Wind Shear isn't terribly bad but it could be a little better for this time of year. SAL has diminished drastically over the past week. The MJO is forecasted to become more favorable towards Atlantic tropical cyclone development, and their currently I believe is a passing Kelvin Wave through the Atlantic basin. The only significant inhibitor is increased levels of Mid-Level Dry Air in the Tropical Atlantic.

So what is putting a lid on the Atlantic at the moment?

Not saying season cancel at all especially when Florida just had their first hurricane landfall in nearly 11 years.
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#2 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:01 pm

Why should it be more active? Most indicators are favorable (shear is normal, instability is actually near normal), and ACE is above normal. We just had a long lived major hurricane and a hurricane hit Florida for the first time in 11 (is that right) years.

In my opinion expectations are skewed. For one, activity seems to directly relate to a land falling hurricane and two, some folks still expect every cloud swirl to easily develop into a storm. Normal is what we are experiencing this year, a normal season coming out of a very strong el nino.

So I would respectfully challenge the idea we are struggling or somehow below normal. :)
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#3 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:05 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Here we are on September 7th just days away from the peak day of the season with nothing much to talk about other than a struggling area of interest near the Cape Verde Islands.

My question is why is the Atlantic struggling so badly to produce at least a single tropical cyclone near the peak day in what was supposed to be an near normal to slightly above average season?

Wind Shear isn't terribly bad but it could be a little better for this time of year. SAL has diminished drastically over the past week. The MJO is forecasted to become more favorable towards Atlantic tropical cyclone development, and their currently I believe is a passing Kelvin Wave through the Atlantic basin. The only significant inhibitor is increased levels of Mid-Level Dry Air in the Tropical Atlantic.

So what is putting a lid on the Atlantic at the moment?

Not saying season cancel at all especially when Florida just had their first hurricane landfall in nearly 11 years.


welcome to the quiet phase
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#4 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:18 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Here we are on September 7th just days away from the peak day of the season with nothing much to talk about other than a struggling area of interest near the Cape Verde Islands.

My question is why is the Atlantic struggling so badly to produce at least a single tropical cyclone near the peak day in what was supposed to be an near normal to slightly above average season?

Wind Shear isn't terribly bad but it could be a little better for this time of year. SAL has diminished drastically over the past week. The MJO is forecasted to become more favorable towards Atlantic tropical cyclone development, and their currently I believe is a passing Kelvin Wave through the Atlantic basin. The only significant inhibitor is increased levels of Mid-Level Dry Air in the Tropical Atlantic.

So what is putting a lid on the Atlantic at the moment?

Not saying season cancel at all especially when Florida just had their first hurricane landfall in nearly 11 years.

:) my name is "Lulling mode" :lol: just a small lull my friend. Time to have a little rest, things will change quickly so stay on your guard :hehe:
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#5 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:41 pm

tolakram wrote:Why should it be more active? Most indicators are favorable (shear is normal, instability is actually near normal), and ACE is above normal. We just had a long lived major hurricane and a hurricane hit Florida for the first time in 11 (is that right) years.

In my opinion expectations are skewed. For one, activity seems to directly relate to a land falling hurricane and two, some folks still expect every cloud swirl to easily develop into a storm. Normal is what we are experiencing this year, a normal season coming out of a very strong el nino.

So I would respectfully challenge the idea we are struggling or somehow below normal. :)


Would have been 11 years this coming October 24th! That was the last hurricane of any cat until Hermine and obviously the last major to landfall in FL.
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#6 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:47 pm

Seems like there still is a little too much shear and stable air in the Altantic for anything to get going.

The last couple seasons have produced an October surprise so still be on the lookout.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#7 Postby Ntxw » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:47 pm

This is about what a normal season is. A couple of hurricanes ACE is normal, named storms on par. There are bursts of activity and when you get a strong hurricane(s) they can bring subsidence behind them for a period after the pattern is worked up. Timing may not be great with peak but overall it is about what most thought near normal.

The higher expectations/disappointments comes from mentioning years like 1998, 1999, 2004, 2005, 2010 etc which were hyperactive years. Tropical cyclones on the grand scheme are rare, most waves do not develop into mature canes.
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#8 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:53 pm

A few days ago in one of these threads I read that ACE wise we are normal or maybe slightly above normal for the entire season. In terms of the MDR portion of the Atlantic, what we are seeing now should not surprise us. If you go back and read the Expert Forecast and Seasonal Indicators threads in this forum from March/April/May you will see many charts and graphics showing the Atlantic MDR was expected to be a little less favorable than average for development. The ECMWF model particularly kept forecasting higher than normal sea level pressures in the MDR part of the basin...which is unfavorable for development. The majority of pro mets/experts predicted a near normal hurricane season and what we are seeing now is near normal activity.

I agree with Alyono in that I believe that the active phase of activity is coming to an end and if the latest CFS El Nino forecast for June 2017 is right, we are in for a potentially slower season compared to this year because it is showing a very strong El Nino to develop for Summer next year. But thats another story.....
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#9 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:13 pm

Graph of activity through 2014.

Image
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#10 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:33 pm

The analogs I had for this year coming in were 1959, 1985, and 1992. The main reason was a La Nina trying to show itself in the equatorial EPAC, but meshed with a warm EPAC MDR, which those years all had. So far, that is living up close to the billing.

The tropical latitudes have had three tropical storms so far, with Earl and Gaston becoming hurricanes. However, both were hurricanes for less than 24 hours combined in the tropical latitudes. It is no surprise to me that Gaston became stronger further north. That is where the stronger storms in the aforementioned three analogs got their strength for the most part. Even Gloria was barely a hurricane south of 20 degrees in 1985. The other two years had no hurricanes in those latitudes - though did have at least one storm form there and intensify further north into one.

The GOM has also been about on par, with three named storms, of which one was a hurricane. 1959 was identical up to this point, and 1985 had one more hurricane there, though also had a major. 1992 had just one storm there, but it was a biggie.

Those years also had a lull around this time, followed by late September threats. Gracie and Gloria were still to come in 1959 and 1985, respectively. And though not a hurricane, Danielle was a troublemaker in 1992 as well around that time.

The EPAC has also been extremely busy this year, as were at least 1985 and 1992. Don't know about 1959 due to unreliable data though.

With all this, I would advise against letting your guard down. There very easily could still be some more threats before the season is over on both basins.

-Andrew92
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:33 pm

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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#12 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:46 pm

I say give it two more weeks (September 21st) before we begin to entertain "well maybe that's it" posts. Even then if September is fairly quiet, October could mean trouble for the western Carib/eastern GOM. I wouldn't look at today's modeling and throw in the towel just yet, they have been horrible this year. Remember just a week and a half ago we were expecting HUGO II to be ravaging the western Atlantic/USA by this time :lol: .
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#13 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:55 pm

I've seen quiet seasons where a big hurricane forms in october so don't bet against it just look at 1985 which is an analog year it had Juan in October first form in the NW Caribbean and do several cyclonic loops in the northern GOM
and of course there was Kate in November
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#14 Postby kala » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:00 pm

I believe - correct me if i'm wrong - the peak of the season (Sept 12) only has a 50% chance of having an Atlantic tropical cyclone be active that day.

Just because it's the peak of the season doesn't mean we should be seeing 3 hurricanes concurrently in the basin... that's not normal. :P Those are flukes and they are memorable and that can happen any time of the season (though more likely at some times than others).
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#15 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:14 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:I say give it two more weeks (September 21st) before we begin to entertain "well maybe that's it" posts. Even then if September is fairly quiet, October could mean trouble for the western Carib/eastern GOM. I wouldn't look at today's modeling and throw in the towel just yet, they have been horrible this year. Remember just a week and a half ago we were expecting HUGO II to be ravaging the western Atlantic/USA by this time :lol: .


The day I likewise am earmarking to watch for activity most closely. That is about when Gloria really began intensifying and when Gracie was starting to develop.

-Andrew92
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#16 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:I am with what Alyono said. Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?


I assumed he was referring to the MJO.

toad strangler wrote:
Would have been 11 years this coming October 24th! That was the last hurricane of any cat until Hermine and obviously the last major to landfall in FL.


That has far more to do with track than how intense a storm is--2010 had a ton of hurricanes/major hurricanes for example but the high pressure kept many of them south of Florida.

As for the Atlantic "struggling" we had back to back El Nino years, so there's two years answered right off the bat. This year La Nina failed to materialize as quickly as the models indicated (part of the general failure of the models this year) so we still have some of the lingering Nina effects, not to mention the quiet phase of the MJO--so that answers this year. The only true neutral year we've had was 2013, which ironically was the quietest of the last four years, and that was a result of the global weather pattern never exiting spring (global activity was down in -all- basins in general.)

And when it comes down to it, we are basically where we were at this point in 1998, minus a Bonnie equivilent. And even in 1998 was quiet after Danielle/Earl (which became ET around the same point Hermine did) and nothing for almost a week following (until Frances) and even then the next active period didn't start until after the middle of the month (Georges was named on Sep 16.)
Last edited by Hammy on Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:12 pm

It hasn't.
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#18 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:24 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:It hasn't.

It has. MDR has been dead, dry air and shear chokes off just about every wave. EPAC hyperactivity is a big red flag.

The thing is, the Atlantic struggling is quite normal. It just doesn't struggle in active periods, the last of which happened to coincide with much of us getting into the hobby of watching hurricanes. So we're kinda used to/spoiled to solid hurricane seasons. That was the exception, not the rule.

Noteworthy however, is that the drying out of the Tropical Atlantic due to Hadley cell expansion/climate change will make the quiet periods more quiet, and conditions more hostile in the Atlantic, on average, in coming decades.
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#19 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 07, 2016 7:00 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:It has. MDR has been dead, dry air and shear chokes off just about every wave. EPAC hyperactivity is a big red flag.

The thing is, the Atlantic struggling is quite normal. It just doesn't struggle in active periods, the last of which happened to coincide with much of us getting into the hobby of watching hurricanes. So we're kinda used to/spoiled to solid hurricane seasons. That was the exception, not the rule.

Noteworthy however, is that the drying out of the Tropical Atlantic due to Hadley cell expansion/climate change will make the quiet periods more quiet, and conditions more hostile in the Atlantic, on average, in coming decades.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadley_cell

Not sure you can connect any hurricane research to this theory, and I'm not sure it's accurate to say the Atlantic is drying out.
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Re: Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

#20 Postby xcool22 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 7:43 pm

Alyono wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Here we are on September 7th just days away from the peak day of the season with nothing much to talk about other than a struggling area of interest near the Cape Verde Islands.

My question is why is the Atlantic struggling so badly to produce at least a single tropical cyclone near the peak day in what was supposed to be an near normal to slightly above average season?

Wind Shear isn't terribly bad but it could be a little better for this time of year. SAL has diminished drastically over the past week. The MJO is forecasted to become more favorable towards Atlantic tropical cyclone development, and their currently I believe is a passing Kelvin Wave through the Atlantic basin. The only significant inhibitor is increased levels of Mid-Level Dry Air in the Tropical Atlantic.

So what is putting a lid on the Atlantic at the moment?

Not saying season cancel at all especially when Florida just had their first hurricane landfall in nearly 11 years.


welcome to the quiet phase


what you meaing
quiet phase ???
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