Why has the Atlantic Basin been struggling lately?

[Hammy]

I think with Matthew's intensification tonight, the trend might be towards backloaded seasons, rather than the Atlantic struggling--since 2011 every season except 2013 has had it's strongest storm in October: 2011 had Ophelia at 140/940 on Oct 1; 2012 had Sandy 115 on Oct 25, and pressure 940 on Oct 29; 2014 had Gonzalo 145/940 on Oct 16; last year had Joaquin 155/933 on Oct 3, and this year has Matthew as a Cat 5 in the early hours of Oct 1, with the possibility of being even stronger in a few days.

[Steve]

Steve=13/8/3 (Final) ACE: 113
^^^
Fail.

We're at 13-5-2. I had 3 more hurricanes (which we may get, but that will void out my NS guess) and one more IH. It's not a complete disaster I guess, but If the season ends up like 16-7-2 or whatever, I won't have been close. So my guess is struggling more than the season has. Of the notables, ninel did have 14/9/x and 120 ace or there about.

[abajan]

Well it sure ain't strugglin' now, is it!
A little patience goes a long way. But what else should we expect in this era of instant gratification.

[Ptarmigan]

I think with Matthew's intensification tonight, the trend might be towards backloaded seasons, rather than the Atlantic struggling--since 2011 every season except 2013 has had it's strongest storm in October: 2011 had Ophelia at 140/940 on Oct 1; 2012 had Sandy 115 on Oct 25, and pressure 940 on Oct 29; 2014 had Gonzalo 145/940 on Oct 16; last year had Joaquin 155/933 on Oct 3, and this year has Matthew as a Cat 5 in the early hours of Oct 1, with the possibility of being even stronger in a few days.

I have noticed some of the strongest hurricanes have occurred in October, like Mitch and Wilma.

[tolakram]

I think with Matthew's intensification tonight, the trend might be towards backloaded seasons, rather than the Atlantic struggling--since 2011 every season except 2013 has had it's strongest storm in October: 2011 had Ophelia at 140/940 on Oct 1; 2012 had Sandy 115 on Oct 25, and pressure 940 on Oct 29; 2014 had Gonzalo 145/940 on Oct 16; last year had Joaquin 155/933 on Oct 3, and this year has Matthew as a Cat 5 in the early hours of Oct 1, with the possibility of being even stronger in a few days.

You've been making this call most of the season and it looks correct, except that rather than multiple storms we may have one storm that does the job of multiple storms.

[Steve]

I think with Matthew's intensification tonight, the trend might be towards backloaded seasons, rather than the Atlantic struggling--since 2011 every season except 2013 has had it's strongest storm in October: 2011 had Ophelia at 140/940 on Oct 1; 2012 had Sandy 115 on Oct 25, and pressure 940 on Oct 29; 2014 had Gonzalo 145/940 on Oct 16; last year had Joaquin 155/933 on Oct 3, and this year has Matthew as a Cat 5 in the early hours of Oct 1, with the possibility of being even stronger in a few days.

You've been making this call most of the season and it looks correct, except that rather than multiple storms we may have one storm that does the job of multiple storms.

Yeah. It looks like the Western Caribbean won't really have enough energy to get anything going with Matthew having been in and around the area and probably sapping most of the energy out of the area. But I don't think Nicole will end up being the last system. We should probably get to O or P or possibly even R. Crazy, and yeah a bit backloaded. But with the neutral in effect and the Pacific so hot so early, it took a while to get things going. I was thinking 2017 is more likely to be a big year for storms, but maybe not so much if this year ends up being much bigger than anticipated.

[HurricaneRyan]

Two simultaneous October hurricanes right now.

[WPBWeather]

I think with Matthew's intensification tonight, the trend might be towards backloaded seasons, rather than the Atlantic struggling--since 2011 every season except 2013 has had it's strongest storm in October: 2011 had Ophelia at 140/940 on Oct 1; 2012 had Sandy 115 on Oct 25, and pressure 940 on Oct 29; 2014 had Gonzalo 145/940 on Oct 16; last year had Joaquin 155/933 on Oct 3, and this year has Matthew as a Cat 5 in the early hours of Oct 1, with the possibility of being even stronger in a few days.

You've been making this call most of the season and it looks correct, except that rather than multiple storms we may have one storm that does the job of multiple storms.

Yeah. It looks like the Western Caribbean won't really have enough energy to get anything going with Matthew having been in and around the area and probably sapping most of the energy out of the area. But I don't think Nicole will end up being the last system. We should probably get to O or P or possibly even R. Crazy, and yeah a bit backloaded. But with the neutral in effect and the Pacific so hot so early, it took a while to get things going. I was thinking 2017 is more likely to be a big year for storms, but maybe not so much if this year ends up being much bigger than anticipated.

The Atl basin showed it is not sleeping or thinking of multi decadal measures. However, I am ready for a lull now. Not sure any of this matters to the Atl Basin though.

[FireRat]

One important thing to consider is that while Matt was in the Caribbean, he didn't touch the bathtub that the western Caribbean is between Yucatan and Cuba...he passed well to the east. This means there is plenty of fuel, in fact the greatest heat content in the whole basin, available for any possible future storm later this month or even November. O and P are certainly possible, and I keep thinking reaching S and T is not far-fetched this season. I bet we'll have one or two more majors before December.

[Hammy]

Given how this season played out, despite almost a month of unfavorable MJO and lingering Nino effects in the E Pac, I almost worry what next year will look like should we end up with a La Nina or at least full neutral conditions south of Mexico.

[Ptarmigan]

One important thing to consider is that while Matt was in the Caribbean, he didn't touch the bathtub that the western Caribbean is between Yucatan and Cuba...he passed well to the east. This means there is plenty of fuel, in fact the greatest heat content in the whole basin, available for any possible future storm later this month or even November. O and P are certainly possible, and I keep thinking reaching S and T is not far-fetched this season. I bet we'll have one or two more majors before December.

I would not be surprised by that. Some of these late season major hurricanes were really bad like Lenny in 1999.

[abajan]

One important thing to consider is that while Matt was in the Caribbean, he didn't touch the bathtub that the western Caribbean is between Yucatan and Cuba...he passed well to the east. This means there is plenty of fuel, in fact the greatest heat content in the whole basin, available for any possible future storm later this month or even November. O and P are certainly possible, and I keep thinking reaching S and T is not far-fetched this season. I bet we'll have one or two more majors before December.

I would not be surprised by that. Some of these late season major hurricanes were really bad like Lenny in 1999.

Having just checked the maps on this NOAA/AOML TCHP page, I'd say that even where Matthew traversed has enough fuel to help spawn a hurricane.

[chaser1]

Not only do I believe the Atlantic is not struggling, but I'm beginning to think that we're gonna see an increasing number of RI events during the years to come

[HurricaneBelle]

Nicole now a Cat 4 bearing down on Bermuda, making this an unprecedented 2 Cat 4 hurricanes in October.

What was this thread about again?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Not only do I believe the Atlantic is not struggling, but I'm beginning to think that we're gonna see an increasing number of RI events during the years to come

It really is scary. Every other storm that finds even somewhat decent conditions these days goes under RI. Imagine a season with even slight LA Nina and no SAL...

[WPBWeather]

Nicole now a Cat 4 bearing down on Bermuda, making this an unprecedented 2 Cat 4 hurricanes in October.

What was this thread about again?

Good point. Time to retire it as not relevant this year.

[psyclone]

Is October the new September? It most definitely is this year.

[CrazyC83]

What could this mean for November?

Despite all the backloading talk, we've had only one November hurricane since 2011 (Kate last year) and no majors since 2008.

[psyclone]

What could this mean for November?

Despite all the backloading talk, we've had only one November hurricane since 2011 (Kate last year) and no majors since 2008.

I bet on a snooze fest for November...just like June and July. I'm at attention August through October but usually check out otherwise since activity is often minimal. Naturally there are exceptions but they're just that...exceptions.

[Hammy]

What could this mean for November?

Despite all the backloading talk, we've had only one November hurricane since 2011 (Kate last year) and no majors since 2008.

This year seems to be returning to pre-2012 conditions. And that said, 2012 was the last non-Nino year (though it had quasi-Nino effects) not to have anything after October since 2000.