ex-92L still hanging on

[GCANE]

Dropping shear, vort at 850 and 700mb, cold-top convection.
Looking interesting.

[Tireman4]

92L has not been reactivated so this thread remains open until 92L is active. They may not do it at all.

Sorry about that. I thought it had...Apologies Louis

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are not conducive for significant
development of this low while it moves westward toward the Texas
coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[Bailey1777]

Is there any low left here..I'm having a hard time finding anything....

[cycloneye]

An area of cloudiness over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are not conducive for significant development of this
system while it moves westward or northwestward toward the Texas
coast during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[GCANE]

Vort and convection picking up at DMAX, SE of Houston

[Bailey1777]

Nice blow up starting...wonder if this can make it back to an active invest?

[Tireman4]

HGX's thoughts...

Weak ridging over the state, weak low pressure over the (west)
central Gulf maintaining an easterly flow pattern and occasional
periods of higher Gulf moisture advecting inland will increase
the probabilities of precipitation. The presence of this western
Gulf low/inverted trough will create just enough instability,
when in tandem with greater than 2.1-2.2 inch pwats, to generate
scattered western Gulf showers and isolated thunderstorms that
will travel across our coastal regions primarily during the
morning hours. As further interior temperatures reach the middle
80s, (near) coastal showers will begin to get going, eventually
moving north and west and evolving into afternoon (generally
isolated) thunderstorms. Over the next several days, most of the
rain will fall across the coastal counties, or where the highest
moisture will reside. Early day (coastal) speed convergence, with
weak shortwave disturbances rotating westward along the northern
periphery of the Gulf low, will increase Friday through Sunday`s
central and southern CWA county scattered showers and storms.

[GCANE]

RAP is resolving a weak surface low.
Convection firing all morning in low shear.
WV showing expansion in all directions.
Vort at the lower levels.
Looks like a hot-tower fired off earlier this morning.

[Tireman4]

From our OCM in Houston, Tim Heller..

I still think we need to keep a close eye on this little disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.The National Hurricane Center is saying this little storm only has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. But....
Forecasting the intensity and development of tropical storms is difficult. Take Tropical Storm Julia along the East Coast. Earlier this week, NHC initially said that disturbance only had a slight chance of developing. About 12 hours later we had a tropical storm. This isn't to criticize the good folks at NHC! No. I have a great deal of respect for them and always follow their guidance. I'm simply pointing out what they emphasize to us and that is intensity forecasting is still highly uncertain.
A couple of things concern me about this little flare-up in the central Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear today isn't particularly strong in that area, less than 15 knots. Upper level winds are diverging, allowing the individual storms within the system to build vertically. There's some drier air to the north and west of the storm, but not a lot. And finally, look at the satellite loop. The disturbance is obviously more active today.
BOTTOM LINE: I'll continue to emphasize that NHC says there's a slight risk of development. But keep checking back for updates. If something develops, I don't want you to be surprised by this.

[Stormcenter]

I'm afraid something may be brewing the GOM, IMO

[Bailey1777]

Looks really suspicious but nhc must not think much of it if they won't even reactivate as an invest???

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure
system over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little
better organized since yesterday. Some additional slow development
could occur before the low moves inland over the Texas coast Friday
or Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[GCANE]

2PM TWO at 20%

[Tireman4]

Up to 20%

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure
system over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little
better organized since yesterday. Some additional slow development
could occur before the low moves inland over the Texas coast Friday
or Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Hummm

[Stormcenter]

Not sure about the westward movement, looks more like a WNW drift. IMO

[jasons2k]

Surface obs indicate a closed low...

[Bailey1777]

What's it take to get reactivated....was an invest when only at 10%...board will light up if this gets back to active pages

[Tireman4]

Surface obs indicate a closed low...

I wonder what Wxman 57 thinks of this....

[GalvestonWXGeek]

Surface obs indicate a closed low...

I wonder what Wxman 57 thinks of this....

I was wondering the same thing.......