ex-92L still hanging on
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
im guessing there is not a lot of activity on this thread due to its not a Florida threat
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
Can somebody give me a fix on where the center is located if we have one please.
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- Tireman4
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
From the NWS Houston Tweet:
NWS Houston @NWSHouston 25m25 minutes ago
Chance for development up to 20%, still disorganized will drift west and may be onshore by Friday PM in South TX. http://ow.ly/qtZt304fHhP
NWS Houston @NWSHouston 25m25 minutes ago
Chance for development up to 20%, still disorganized will drift west and may be onshore by Friday PM in South TX. http://ow.ly/qtZt304fHhP
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- Tireman4
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
From our OCM ( KHOU) in Houston..Brooks Garner on his Facebook page"
A tropical wave in the Gulf may be trying to develop. Whatever becomes of it, it'll move into Texas well south of the Houston area. Regardless of its track, we'll see an increase in rain chances tomorrow and especially Saturday. See you at 4 with an update on the TV side.
A tropical wave in the Gulf may be trying to develop. Whatever becomes of it, it'll move into Texas well south of the Houston area. Regardless of its track, we'll see an increase in rain chances tomorrow and especially Saturday. See you at 4 with an update on the TV side.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
Anticyclone has developed over the convection and 850mb vort has improved since this morning.
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- setexholmes
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
Do my eyes deceive me or has the "blob of uncertainty" gone farther north in Texas.
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The comments and opinions I make are borderline crazy and should not be taken too seriously. Please consult NOAA for information.
Re: ex-92L still hanging on
Tireman4 wrote:From our OCM ( KHOU) in Houston..Brooks Garner on his Facebook page"
A tropical wave in the Gulf may be trying to develop. Whatever becomes of it, it'll move into Texas well south of the Houston area. Regardless of its track, we'll see an increase in rain chances tomorrow and especially Saturday. See you at 4 with an update on the TV side.
I'm not so sure about this.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
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- Tireman4
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
From Brooks Garner Blog...
Crank up the heat engine... In a lawn mower you need gas, air and a spark. In a tropical system heat engine you need, warm water, calm air and low pressure. Without one or all, the engine won't start. Those elements may be coming together in the Gulf right now. My thoughts in today's blog.
Crank up the heat engine... In a lawn mower you need gas, air and a spark. In a tropical system heat engine you need, warm water, calm air and low pressure. Without one or all, the engine won't start. Those elements may be coming together in the Gulf right now. My thoughts in today's blog.
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- MGC
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
Looks like it is starting to spin up a bit....needs a lot more convection though....MGC
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- Tireman4
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
From HGX AFD:
Going forward, the Gulf low should continue drifting westward, so
even if its circulation does continue to strengthen, we should
still see onshore flow, and an increase in moisture into the
weekend. Precipitable water looks to increase from around 1.75
inches to 2 inches or more, and so PoPs are increased along with
that. One concern might be that if this low were to actually
become a tropical cyclone, there could be enough outflow that we
could be trapped under a subsident ring, suppressing convection
despite the increased moisture. But since that appears to be a
very low probability outcome, the PoP grids do not reflect that
scenario. The increased potential for rain and cloudiness should
be sufficient to knock down high temps a few degrees, but don`t
look for much more than that - the scenario still appears to be
more an enhancement of the diurnal trend which would still allow
for plenty of heating.
Tropical...
The low pressure area in the Gulf has seen a bump up in its
development potential to 20 percent today, which is warranted
given its convective performance this morning, and its developing
circulation. It has not been able to advance or really even
sustain its convective appearance this afternoon, though for an
undeveloped system, it`s not really to be expected at this stage
of development. It is riding along a pretty sharp gradient in
shear, and its future track may provide the limiting factor on its
potential. Over SE Texas, shear is quite high, and any drift north
of west would be likely to keep this area undeveloped. Further
slow development may be possible on a due west track in moderate
to marginally favorable shear, while better development may be
possible if it drifts a bit south of west where shear is a little
more relaxed. Of course, with the gradient oriented in this
manner, any impacts for our area would likely to be more or less
the same regardless of what happens.
Going forward, the Gulf low should continue drifting westward, so
even if its circulation does continue to strengthen, we should
still see onshore flow, and an increase in moisture into the
weekend. Precipitable water looks to increase from around 1.75
inches to 2 inches or more, and so PoPs are increased along with
that. One concern might be that if this low were to actually
become a tropical cyclone, there could be enough outflow that we
could be trapped under a subsident ring, suppressing convection
despite the increased moisture. But since that appears to be a
very low probability outcome, the PoP grids do not reflect that
scenario. The increased potential for rain and cloudiness should
be sufficient to knock down high temps a few degrees, but don`t
look for much more than that - the scenario still appears to be
more an enhancement of the diurnal trend which would still allow
for plenty of heating.
Tropical...
The low pressure area in the Gulf has seen a bump up in its
development potential to 20 percent today, which is warranted
given its convective performance this morning, and its developing
circulation. It has not been able to advance or really even
sustain its convective appearance this afternoon, though for an
undeveloped system, it`s not really to be expected at this stage
of development. It is riding along a pretty sharp gradient in
shear, and its future track may provide the limiting factor on its
potential. Over SE Texas, shear is quite high, and any drift north
of west would be likely to keep this area undeveloped. Further
slow development may be possible on a due west track in moderate
to marginally favorable shear, while better development may be
possible if it drifts a bit south of west where shear is a little
more relaxed. Of course, with the gradient oriented in this
manner, any impacts for our area would likely to be more or less
the same regardless of what happens.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
Getting small hot towers firing off.
Pretty good for this time of day.
I would venture to say this has a warm core.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Pretty good for this time of day.
I would venture to say this has a warm core.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
Looks like a lot of the new deep convection is developing due south of the C. LA. coastline. That looks like the most interesting area. IMO
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
Stormcenter wrote:Looks like a lot of the new deep convection is developing due south of the C. LA. coastline. That looks like the most interesting area. IMO
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html
Seeing this as well.
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- lrak
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
Busy day, never visited the net until now. Will this big arse blob turn in to a wind machine? It doesn't have enough time and the right atmospheric conditions to develop rapidly right? Like rain Plus I DON"T like Houston's forecast.
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AKA karl
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My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Kazmit
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
Looking better than it did yesterday, that's for sure.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
Looks like its got some good inflow developing. Have to see if it can fire up some more convection. I'd definitely saw this is something to watch.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on
Don't know if it means anything, but I have been watching this thing for 2 weeks and even though as a whole convection is dying down it is firing new convection at night and this is the first time I've seen this.
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