ex-92L still hanging on

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indianforever
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#41 Postby indianforever » Thu Sep 15, 2016 1:37 pm

im guessing there is not a lot of activity on this thread due to its not a Florida threat
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#42 Postby Bailey1777 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 1:52 pm

Can somebody give me a fix on where the center is located if we have one please.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#43 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 1:55 pm

From the NWS Houston Tweet:

NWS Houston ‏@NWSHouston 25m25 minutes ago
Chance for development up to 20%, still disorganized will drift west and may be onshore by Friday PM in South TX. http://ow.ly/qtZt304fHhP
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#44 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:21 pm

From our OCM ( KHOU) in Houston..Brooks Garner on his Facebook page"

A tropical wave in the Gulf may be trying to develop. Whatever becomes of it, it'll move into Texas well south of the Houston area. Regardless of its track, we'll see an increase in rain chances tomorrow and especially Saturday. See you at 4 with an update on the TV side.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#45 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:22 pm

Anticyclone has developed over the convection and 850mb vort has improved since this morning.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#46 Postby setexholmes » Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:26 pm

Do my eyes deceive me or has the "blob of uncertainty" gone farther north in Texas.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#47 Postby TexWx » Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:27 pm

Tireman4 wrote:From our OCM ( KHOU) in Houston..Brooks Garner on his Facebook page"

A tropical wave in the Gulf may be trying to develop. Whatever becomes of it, it'll move into Texas well south of the Houston area. Regardless of its track, we'll see an increase in rain chances tomorrow and especially Saturday. See you at 4 with an update on the TV side.



I'm not so sure about this.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#48 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:28 pm

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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#49 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:53 pm

Picking up a feed of 5000 CAPE air from its west side.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#50 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 3:22 pm

From Brooks Garner Blog...

Crank up the heat engine... In a lawn mower you need gas, air and a spark. In a tropical system heat engine you need, warm water, calm air and low pressure. Without one or all, the engine won't start. Those elements may be coming together in the Gulf right now. My thoughts in today's blog.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#51 Postby MGC » Thu Sep 15, 2016 3:22 pm

Looks like it is starting to spin up a bit....needs a lot more convection though....MGC
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#52 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 3:29 pm

From HGX AFD:

Going forward, the Gulf low should continue drifting westward, so
even if its circulation does continue to strengthen, we should
still see onshore flow, and an increase in moisture into the
weekend. Precipitable water looks to increase from around 1.75
inches to 2 inches or more, and so PoPs are increased along with
that. One concern might be that if this low were to actually
become a tropical cyclone, there could be enough outflow that we
could be trapped under a subsident ring, suppressing convection
despite the increased moisture. But since that appears to be a
very low probability outcome, the PoP grids do not reflect that
scenario. The increased potential for rain and cloudiness should
be sufficient to knock down high temps a few degrees, but don`t
look for much more than that - the scenario still appears to be
more an enhancement of the diurnal trend which would still allow
for plenty of heating.
Tropical...
The low pressure area in the Gulf has seen a bump up in its
development potential to 20 percent today, which is warranted
given its convective performance this morning, and its developing
circulation. It has not been able to advance or really even
sustain its convective appearance this afternoon, though for an
undeveloped system, it`s not really to be expected at this stage
of development. It is riding along a pretty sharp gradient in
shear, and its future track may provide the limiting factor on its
potential. Over SE Texas, shear is quite high, and any drift north
of west would be likely to keep this area undeveloped. Further
slow development may be possible on a due west track in moderate
to marginally favorable shear, while better development may be
possible if it drifts a bit south of west where shear is a little
more relaxed. Of course, with the gradient oriented in this
manner, any impacts for our area would likely to be more or less
the same regardless of what happens.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#53 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 15, 2016 3:31 pm

Getting small hot towers firing off.

Pretty good for this time of day.

I would venture to say this has a warm core.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#54 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Sep 15, 2016 3:41 pm

Looks like a lot of the new deep convection is developing due south of the C. LA. coastline. That looks like the most interesting area. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#55 Postby TexWx » Thu Sep 15, 2016 3:51 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Looks like a lot of the new deep convection is developing due south of the C. LA. coastline. That looks like the most interesting area. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html



Seeing this as well.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#56 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 15, 2016 4:03 pm

Sitting over high OHC water

Image
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#57 Postby lrak » Thu Sep 15, 2016 5:31 pm

Busy day, never visited the net until now. Will this big arse blob turn in to a wind machine? It doesn't have enough time and the right atmospheric conditions to develop rapidly right? Like rain :D Plus I DON"T like Houston's forecast.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#58 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 15, 2016 6:14 pm

Looking better than it did yesterday, that's for sure.

Image
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#59 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 15, 2016 6:25 pm

Looks like its got some good inflow developing. Have to see if it can fire up some more convection. I'd definitely saw this is something to watch.
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Re: ex-92L still hanging on

#60 Postby Bailey1777 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 8:09 pm

Don't know if it means anything, but I have been watching this thing for 2 weeks and even though as a whole convection is dying down it is firing new convection at night and this is the first time I've seen this.
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