Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

Here we go with the Tropical Wave that models develop down the road in MDR / Caribbean.Let's see what occurs.

P39L
6N, 4E

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synops ... 092000.txt

[Gustywind]

Sat pic related to Pouch 39L http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... et7kml.GIF

[PTrackerLA]

Haven't seen a wave this low in latitude in a while, should be an interesting system to track!

[weatherwindow]

Good morning Luis et al...it certainly appears that pouch 39L is by far the most southerly significant wave of the season... perhaps if it's lower latitude traverse of the MDR verifies it may have a better chance of encountering favorable conditions for development... I wonder if it may already be benefiting from its proximity to potential inflow from the Gulf of Guinea?...Rich

[gatorcane]

Looks vigorous, loop below

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[blp]

Very good consensus on the GFS ensembles. Notice a slight shift north now entering the islands at a slightly higher latitude with less ensembles showing the brush with SA. Let's see if the 12z adjusts. Also, in the long term the ensembles diverge quite a bit now.

[SFLcane]

The mdr is extremely hostile right now folks i just can't by into the GFS right now.

[blp]

The mdr is extremely hostile right now folks i just can't by into the GFS right now.

Agree, but that is why this one has to be watched because it will not be able to develop in the MDR and thus may present a problem down the road in Carribean. Enough models are showing that the vorticity will stay intact throughout the MDR trip. This one is highly unlikely to be an OTS.

[Hurricaneman]

looks like the 12zGFS is showing this still skimming South America

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the 12zGFS at 222 is 10 to 15 miles north of the 6z at 228

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[cycloneye]

Repeat of NIcaragua landfall that 06z had?

[Hurricaneman]

Repeat of NIcaragua landfall that 06z had?

nope, looks like western Cuba

[cycloneye]

No Nicaragua this run.Goes WNW to NW close to Jamaica towards Cuba.

[cycloneye]

This time is Tampa.

[gatorcane]

Looks like Florida again and an intensifying storm also

[1900hurricane]

It's been a while since the Atlantic Basin has seen a real low latitude tropical cyclone (the last at a somewhat low latitude was Tomas '10 I believe). Its location will likely keep it more insulated from dry air than its predecessors. In fact, it even may be more susceptible to dry air from the Southern Hemisphere than from the north. I'll be watching this one with interest.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like Florida again and an intensifying storm also

I wouldn't put too much stock in it but I can't remember which meteorologist said about storm tracks seeming to go over similar areas through the hurricane season. the main cluster areas seem to be recurve around 40 to 50W and another area around the Florida big bend. lets just hope this doesnt come anywhere near florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[gatorcane]

Yeah if this one gets Florida that would be two hurricanes and two tropical storms for the state this season. This one could be the strongest looking at the GFS upper air pattern. At least what the GFS is showing is in the long-range and subject to big errors.

[sma10]

This is obviously fantasy at this point, but still of interest to see if it develops as modeled. I've been wracking my brain trying to come up with an analog track that the GFS is depicting.

The historical record is chock full of October Cuba-to-Florida connections, but these usually find their genesis down in the Western Caribbean. Can anyone point to me an early October track similar to this one?

[SouthFLTropics]

This is obviously fantasy at this point, but still of interest to see if it develops as modeled. I've been wracking my brain trying to come up with an analog track that the GFS is depicting.

The historical record is chock full of October Cuba-to-Florida connections, but these usually find their genesis down in the Western Caribbean. Can anyone point to me an early October track similar to this one?

I can give you a late August track...Charley formed in the Southern Antilles and tracked WNW to just west of Jamaica before making its move north over Cuba and to Punta Gorda.