Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[1900hurricane]

GFS Simulated IR. Would certainly make Floridians rather nervous if it verified.

It actually somewhat looks like the GFS is trying to resolve an eyewall replacement (whether it actually is or not is up for debate and above my pay grade for the time being).

[robbielyn]

that looks to be crossing some big mountains if it went north or northeast from there that is.

[Steve]

Alyono- what are your thoughts?? How do you think the upper air pattern will end up by looking at all the data I know it's early but what is your gut telling you ?

I ain't him, but there could (should?) be a timeframe way farther west that will provide for excellent upper support. Also the timing with a positive MJO and then the kelvin wave propagating could mean an intersection of several favorable attributes. Ryan Maue tweeted a bit ago that upper level wind shear and strong anticyclone above potential tropical system in Caribbean could be very intense.

[Hammy]

that looks to be crossing some big mountains.

Could pull a Dennis 2005 if anything like this plays out--if I remember it weakened over the mountains to a Cat 1, only to re-intensify to it's original peak intensity in the GoM.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/779828731447762944

[USTropics]

Also want to point out that while this isn't an official invest, the NHC has internally been tracking this since the 22nd.

GENESIS024, AL, L, , , , , 79, 2016, DB, O, 2016092212, 9999999999, , 024, , , , GENESIS, , AL792016

[Hurricaneman]

that looks to be crossing some big mountains.

Could pull a Dennis 2005 if anything like this plays out--if I remember it weakened over the mountains to a Cat 1, only to re-intensify to it's original peak intensity in the GoM.

If this goes west of the big mountains this will not weaken as much as Dennis did

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[sunnyday]

This is definitely scary, but surely something will come along to keep such a storm from traveling up the spine of Florida. That picture is the stuff of nightmares.
How would the people there even be able to evacuate when the whole state is under a huge, major hurricane?
Unbelievable at best, terrifying at worst!!!!
Do any of you even consider this a possibility?

[gatorcane]

When I loop this, I see some pretty good cyclonic rotation already. See far bottom-right of loop and adjust animation speed higher. By the way, RAMMB site still has no floater on this

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[tarheelprogrammer]

This is definitely scary, but surely something will come along to keep such a storm from traveling up the spine of Florida. That picture is the stuff of nightmares.
How would the people there even be able to evacuate when the whole state is under a huge, major hurricane?
Unbelievable at best, terrifying at worst!!!!
Do any of you even consider this a possibility?

At this point it is a possibility. Not a good set up for residents of the G.O.M.

[cycloneye]

Also want to point out that while this isn't an official invest, the NHC has internally been tracking this since the 22nd.

GENESIS024, AL, L, , , , , 79, 2016, DB, O, 2016092212, 9999999999, , 024, , , , GENESIS, , AL792016

Do you have the link to those tests?

[USTropics]

Also want to point out that while this isn't an official invest, the NHC has internally been tracking this since the 22nd.

GENESIS024, AL, L, , , , , 79, 2016, DB, O, 2016092212, 9999999999, , 024, , , , GENESIS, , AL792016

Do you have the link to those tests?

They add their internal invests to this txt document (only when they're active) - ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/index/AL_storms.txt.nhc

[robbielyn]

ok for some fun, I'm putting in my prediction for pouch 43L. not a singular specific landfall area but from what I've seen from the models so far I say LA or miami and heads nne out to sea. I say the whole peninsula north of miami safe. basically two ways it can go. if u force me to choose I say LA. obviously way too early to guess but I'm guessing anyway. sort of like when we guess at the beginning of the season how many storms we will have.

[stormlover2013]

You can't leave out Mexico or Texas I mean gfs has been everywhere...right now I say let's see if it develops and if it does let's hope their is a strong front or trough of not all the way to Mexico-Florida better watch out

[gatorcane]

NASA model day 5

[Alyono]

Alyono- what are your thoughts?? How do you think the upper air pattern will end up by looking at all the data I know it's early but what is your gut telling you ?

very favorable for intensification

[Hurricaneman]

I see cyclonic twist at 9.5N 33W

[robbielyn]

You can't leave out Mexico or Texas I mean gfs has been everywhere...right now I say let's see if it develops and if it does let's hope their is a strong front or trough of not all the way to Mexico-Florida better watch out

if it starts moving nw towards the cuban coastline crossing into the straits its not going to mexico but I'm certainly not opposed to Matthew staying south and west by no means.

[USTropics]

NCEP ensemble guidance at 100% probability of tropical genesis:

[JaxGator]

This is definitely scary, but surely something will come along to keep such a storm from traveling up the spine of Florida. That picture is the stuff of nightmares.
How would the people there even be able to evacuate when the whole state is under a huge, major hurricane?
Unbelievable at best, terrifying at worst!!!!
Do any of you even consider this a possibility?

It's like Floyd (1999)n when most of the peninsula had to evacuate and that was a nightmare. I was three when my family and I had to evac from the hurricane and it was not fun. We'll have more model runs but the trend so far is scary.