Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[toad strangler]

12z GEM tries to thread the needle between Cuba and the Dominican. Brings a weaker cyclone N into the S Bahamas at the end of the 240 hr run.

[Kazmit]

Gets pretty big before Yucatan landfall.

[psyclone]

Like the rest of you I find these model runs interesting but I'm just not getting caught up in the latest cat 5 model storm. I recognize that this is the climo favored zone and the upper air pattern may be good but I'll be watching for actual development. As I like to say....the eyes have it. Show me a storm. What we have now is potential. So while I'll be watching (often lurking as a guest)....too soon for me. Unless you're in the windwards/Leewards...those folks need a little more watchful eye at this point.

[toad strangler]

Like the rest of you I find these model runs interesting but I'm just not getting caught up in the latest cat 5 model storm. I recognize that this is the climo favored zone and the upper air pattern may be good but I'll be watching for actual development. As I like to say....the eyes have it. Show me a storm. What we have now is potential. So while I'll be watching (often lurking as a guest)....too soon for me. Unless you're in the windwards/Leewards...those folks need a little more watchful eye at this point.

This is a hobby. Never ever ever ever too soon to watch models! Veteran hobbyists know not to focus on where each run of any model plants an eye. It's all about signals and pattern recognition.

[Hurricaneman]

I'd say abajan should at least prepare for a tropical storm Wednesday night into Thursday morning and maybe change that as forecast conditions warrant

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[hurrtracker79]

12Z GEFS is split between the gulf and east of Florida, but more members are further west versus the 0Z run. Maybe only one or two members agree with the operational run.

[Hurricaneman]

The gfs ensembles have shifted south more in line with the OP

[CrazyC83]

I'm still skeptical of a recurve though. If it is that far south at the end of September, wouldn't it just plow into Nicaragua or Honduras? Especially with an August-like pattern in place right now.

Heck, it doesn't have to dig much farther south and land interaction with northern South America could enter the picture.

[Medtronic15]

Up 10-60
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. This disturbance is expected to move rapidly westward
across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 20 to 25 mph for the next
several days. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into
the Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Brennan

[SeGaBob]

10-60? Time for this to be a invest.

[KWT]

I'm still skeptical of a recurve though. If it is that far south at the end of September, wouldn't it just plow into Nicaragua or Honduras? Especially with an August-like pattern in place right now.

Heck, it doesn't have to dig much farther south and land interaction with northern South America could enter the picture.

I certainly wouldn't rule out it just plowing W/WNW and burying itself into central America, it seems more plauseable to me than an early recurve from that far south.

With that being said if it gets upto 15-18N then at this time of year you can start to get troughs deep enough to dig these types of systems N/NNe/NE even from down there.

Whatever happens we have a tropica wave that is likely to find some favourable conditions. Not mant systems have found those this year, Gaston did, Hermine did for about 24hrs, lets see if future 97L does.

[psyclone]

10-60? Time for this to be a invest.

We should get an invest designation soon..

[PuppyToes]

GFS showing this in the eastern Caribbean.

Holy cow! That's a beast!

[WeatherEmperor]

Whats the 12z Ukmet show?


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[TheAustinMan]

Whats the 12z Ukmet show?


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Development on September 28 east of the Windward Islands, moving through St. Vincent and Barbados on the 29th as a tropical storm, before approaching hurricane status on the 30th just east of the ABC Islands.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 12.5N 55.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2016 96 12.5N 57.1W 1007 32
0000UTC 29.09.2016 108 13.1N 59.8W 1003 41
1200UTC 29.09.2016 120 13.2N 63.1W 998 52
0000UTC 30.09.2016 132 13.0N 65.8W 990 61
1200UTC 30.09.2016 144 12.5N 67.3W 987 58

[Alyono]

I'm still skeptical of a recurve though. If it is that far south at the end of September, wouldn't it just plow into Nicaragua or Honduras? Especially with an August-like pattern in place right now.

Heck, it doesn't have to dig much farther south and land interaction with northern South America could enter the picture.

I certainly wouldn't rule out it just plowing W/WNW and burying itself into central America, it seems more plauseable to me than an early recurve from that far south.

With that being said if it gets upto 15-18N then at this time of year you can start to get troughs deep enough to dig these types of systems N/NNe/NE even from down there.

Whatever happens we have a tropica wave that is likely to find some favourable conditions. Not mant systems have found those this year, Gaston did, Hermine did for about 24hrs, lets see if future 97L does.

Ivan was down near Aruba and it made the turn without any issues. That was in mid September as well

[LarryWx]

Well the models may have been overly optermistic with Hermine but the shear DID ease up with Hermine in the end and it DID end up a hurricane, so they weren't totally wrong with that.

Anyway this is a totally different system with a different set of potentials and you need to take each storm at its own merit. Just because the forecast busted for 1/2/3/4 storms, does not mean it will bust for storm 5 and having that attitude means you'll get caught out when that big one does come through...and it will...one day.

Also the GFS never showed a hurricane in the Bahamas like the Euro with Hermine. Now we have both GFS and Euro with a hurricane in the Western Caribbean.

You have that backwards. Several runs of the GFS had 99L becoming a sub-940MB low near or over the Bahamas well out past day 7, while the Euro showed squadoosh. Eventually they flip-flopped as the tracks shifted south toward and through the Florida straits - the ECM showed a much stronger system in the eastern GOMEX while the GFS trended much weaker.

I was just looking back at the pre-99L pouch thread and the 99L/pre-Hermine model thread. Although the Euro had 2 runs (8/14-15 runs) with a TC in/near the L.A.'s (one a H) even before the GFS had a TC on any run in that area, the Euro then went on to drop TC development for good in that area and didn't develop it at all for a number of days of runs afterward. Otoh, the GFS started developing it near or east of the L.A.'s right after the Euro dropped it though this was only for a couple of runs. Then neither developed it for several days. Then the GFS starting around 8/18 to have a number of runs developing it with several doing so near 50-55W and giving the L.A.'s a TS. Some of these GFS runs at high res had sub 940's off the SE coast per what AJC said with one at 907 and another at 904 while the Euro had nothing! The Euro easily outperformed the GFS overall during these early stages. Also, these GFS runs turned out to be way too east likely due to showing a TC way too early.

Related to this, look at this 8/19 post from Tolakram:

viewtopic.php?p=2520178#p2520178

[ConvergenceZone]

I wouldn't put too much faith in any model pushing this into Mexico right now. It's too early to assume that strong high pressure is going to be over the Northern Gulf, thus diverting this into Mexico.

[SoupBone]

I wouldn't put too much faith in any model pushing this into Mexico right now. It's too early to assume that strong high pressure is going to be over the Northern Gulf, thus diverting this into Mexico.

Is that not a typical pattern for the first to second week in October?

[gatorcane]

Also the GFS never showed a hurricane in the Bahamas like the Euro with Hermine. Now we have both GFS and Euro with a hurricane in the Western Caribbean.

You have that backwards. Several runs of the GFS had 99L becoming a sub-940MB low near or over the Bahamas well out past day 7, while the Euro showed squadoosh. Eventually they flip-flopped as the tracks shifted south toward and through the Florida straits - the ECM showed a much stronger system in the eastern GOMEX while the GFS trended much weaker.

I was just looking back at the pre-99L pouch thread and the 99L/pre-Hermine model thread. Although the Euro had 2 runs (8/14-15 runs) with a TC in/near the L.A.'s (one a H) even before the GFS had a TC on any run in that area, the Euro then went on to drop TC development for good in that area and didn't develop it at all for a number of days of runs afterward. Otoh, the GFS started developing it near or east of the L.A.'s right after the Euro dropped it though this was only for a couple of runs. Then neither developed it for several days. Then the GFS starting around 8/18 to have a number of runs developing it with several doing so near 50-55W and giving the L.A.'s a TS. Some of these GFS runs at high res had sub 940's off the SE coast per what AJC said with one at 907 and another at 904 while the Euro had nothing! The Euro easily outperformed the GFS overall during these early stages. Also, these GFS runs turned out to be way too east likely due to showing a TC way too early.

Related to this, look at this 8/19 post from Tolakram:

viewtopic.php?p=2520178#p2520178

well that is interesting and thanks for the correction AJC3 and LarryWx. Maybe the GFS CAT 5 model storm is just that - a model storm.