Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#801 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:48 am

Last edited by tarheelprogrammer on Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#802 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:48 am

JtSmarts wrote:Looks like it might pull a "Wilma" or worse on the Yucatan.


Na into mex
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#803 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:49 am

More ridging in the East Conus and W Atl on the 12z vs the 6z GFS. Hits Yucatan, and keeps heading W/NW across GOM into N Mex. The upper air pattern on the 12zGFS at 240 hours looks a little closer to the 0Z Euro.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#804 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:51 am

We're not going to have any idea of landfall area until next week probably
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#805 Postby JtSmarts » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:52 am

And we thought it might shift right because of the ensembles. :lol:
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#806 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:53 am

SFLcane wrote:Canadian has a hurricane in the Bahamas



flawed run. Merges it with something to the east. BS FLAG
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#807 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:53 am

The windshield wiping effect is in full force!
:sprinkler:
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#808 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:54 am

The gfs is going against all of its ensemble members so I wouldn't put stock into any solution until maybe next Saturday or Sunday
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#809 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:55 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The gfs is going against all of its ensemble members so I wouldn't put stock into any solution until maybe next Saturday or Sunday

It'll be interesting to see what the 12z GEFS Ensembles show along with the 12z Euro.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#810 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:55 am

End of 12z GFS not believable lol
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#811 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:56 am

Hurricane intensity aside, I wouldn't put ANY stock toward where this "could" be in 8-14 days LOL. Not like we've been blessed with the best global model forecast accuracy in years here :wink: Someone earlier posted "anywhere from Texas to Florida", and that might not be broad enough lol. Seems likely that we'll be dealing with something potentially dangerous making its way into the Caribbean but I don't trust the models nearly enough to think they've got that good a handle on much more than 5 days out, let alone double that.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#812 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:59 am

Jamaica may need to start taking this seriously early next week if the GFS is correct. Even so it's 9 days away from even reaching the island. What happens after that point will continue to fluctuate for the next several days.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#813 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:59 am

Too early speculating about Continental U.S. landfall right now. We should have a better idea by Tuesday of Wednesday of this upcoming week.

Right now, our main concerns should be to those down in the Caribbean, especially in the next week.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#814 Postby JtSmarts » Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:02 pm

You know you're a weather geek when you are one of 379 users on a weather forum on a Saturday afternoon watching models for a storm that has yet to even form. :lol:
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#815 Postby NWFL56 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:Continues to deepen at 186 hours.943 mbs going more NW.

Image

Glad to see you got your power back!
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#816 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:04 pm

JtSmarts wrote:You know you're a weather geek when you are one of 379 users on a weather forum on a Saturday afternoon watching models for a storm that has yet to even form. :lol:


And not even a invest.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#817 Postby sunnyday » Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:05 pm

Isn't it just too far out to even speculate? So many times, we see these terrible possibilities==monster storm, huge winds, headed for SE Fl (usually early on), etc., and most of the hubbub never happens, thank goodness.
Things usually change for the better as the storm approaches the U S. Thankfully, Andrews, Katrinas, and Camilles are extremely rare!
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#818 Postby SoupBone » Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:05 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Too early speculating about Continental U.S. landfall right now. We should have a better idea by Tuesday of Wednesday of this upcoming week.

Right now, our main concerns should be to those down in the Caribbean, especially in the next week.



I think that still might be too premature. This thing is a ways from any U.S. landfall. I agree with the Caribbean concerns though.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#819 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:06 pm

Y'all spend too much time complaining about what the GFS does beyond 10 days. Of course, it's gonna switch all over the place. It's chaos theory at work. Look at the signal when observing model output beyond 7 or so days. It's consistently shows a TC in the Caribbean during the first week of October, which is very worrying for many areas.
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Re: Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Pouch 39L)

#820 Postby SoupBone » Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:06 pm

sunnyday wrote:Isn't it just too far out to even speculate? So many times, we see these terrible possibilities==monster storm, huge winds, headed for SE Fl (usually early on), etc., and most of the hubbub never happens, thank goodness.
Things usually change for the better as the storm approaches the U S. Thankfully, Andrews, Katrinas, and Camilles are extremely rare!



I completely agree, bot not much else going on weather wise. :lol:
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