Lisa "breakoff wave" near 19N 53W

#1 Postby **GCANE** » Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:49 am

Interesting forecast from COAMPS showing a breakoff of LL vorticity from Lisa which then travels into the Carib.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/w ... 50&tau=999

Checking MIMIC-TPW, its seems the feature is forming.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

Will be keeping an eye on it.

tpr1967 · #2 Postby **tpr1967** » Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:14 am

Other globals like GFS and Euro are showing this also. But they don't seem to do much with it.

#3 Postby **GCANE** » Thu Sep 22, 2016 5:29 am

Still keeping an eye on that breakoff wave from Lisa.

COAMPS nailed the feature and now clearly seen on MIMIC-TPW & 850mb vort at about 14N 44W.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

Some convection firing off around 16N 45W and in low to moderate shear.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... java5.html
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

Models still not doing much with it expect NAVGEM which has it as a weak low going into the east Carib.

#4 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Sep 24, 2016 5:04 am

Wave is now at 19N 53W and picking up moderate convection due to interaction with an UL trough to it's NE

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-animated.gif

#5 Postby **GCANE** » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:35 am

HurricaneRyan · #6 Postby **HurricaneRyan** » Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:27 pm

Is this what would eventually become Matthew?

1900hurricane · #7 Postby **1900hurricane** » Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:59 am

HurricaneRyan wrote:Is this what would eventually become Matthew?

Nope.