2016 Cyclones Retirement

[Ptarmigan]

I think Matthew will be retired.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Matthew's retired for certain after all the havoc it caused.

[HurricaneRyan]

If Nicole ends up being a major problem for Bermuda, she could be a candidate too.

[CrazyC83]

If Nicole ends up being a major problem for Bermuda, she could be a candidate too.

I'm starting to think that too, but we'll see how bad it is to know if Bermuda (via the UK) will decide to do such.

[Kazmit]

I like the name Marcus as a replacement for Matthew.

[CrazyC83]

Going storm by storm, here is how I would consider the retirement prospects of the 2015 storms:

Hurricane Alex

Case FOR retirement: Meteorological freak of nature, hit the Azores
Case AGAINST retirement: Minimal damage
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Bonnie

Case FOR retirement: Not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Weak storm with modest impact
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Colin

Case FOR retirement: Not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Same as Bonnie
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Danielle

Case FOR retirement: Not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Same as Bonnie and Colin
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:

Hurricane Earl

Case FOR retirement: Significant damage in Mexico and large loss of life
Case AGAINST retirement: Inconsistent retirement record
My probability of retirement: 40%
Verdict: (barely)

Tropical Storm Fiona

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Major Hurricane Gaston

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts despite high intensity
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Hurricane Hermine

Case FOR retirement: Noticeable impact in an area of the coast not hit recently
Case AGAINST retirement: Low death toll, damage overall not very heavy
My probability of retirement: 20%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Ian

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Julia

Case FOR retirement: Some flooding and coastal impacts (more of a precursor)
Case AGAINST retirement: No fatalities, overall damage minor
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Karl

Case FOR retirement: Not much
Case AGAINST retirement: Impact very minor
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict:

Tropical Storm Lisa

Case FOR retirement: None
Case AGAINST retirement: No land impacts
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict:

Major Hurricane Matthew

Case FOR retirement: Catastrophic damage and very high death toll in Haiti, severe damage in US, Bahamas and Cuba
Case AGAINST retirement: Not much of any
My probability of retirement: 98%
Verdict:

Major Hurricane Nicole

Case FOR retirement: High intensity hit for Bermuda
Case AGAINST retirement: Damage far less than Fabian and even less than Fay or Gonzalo, no fatalities
My probability of retirement: 10%
Verdict:

Hurricane Otto

Case FOR retirement: Strong late season storm in an area that experiences few tropical cyclones; significant death toll
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall damage not too extreme; little experience with cases in Panama/Costa Rica
My probability of retirement: 30%
Verdict:

[HurricaneRyan]

Unless 90L turns into a bad Otto, the retirement candidates will remain the obvious Matthew - and Earl, Hermine and Nicole as candidates too

[Exalt]

Matthew - 100%

Catastrophic damage in Haiti, Bahamas, Cuba, and United States. High death toll in Haiti and United States.

Otto - 80-90%

Torrential rains in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Panama. Fatalities in Costa Rica and Panama. First time hit for Costa Rica, and a basin crossing phenom.

Earl - 60-70%

High death toll and torrential rains in Belize and Mexico. (However Mexico is wishy washy on their retirement record)

Nicole - 40-50%

Unusual head on landfall for Bermuda, unusually long living. 1 direct fatality and storm disrupted the function of the nation.

[Alyono]

Matthew yes, the others have little chance.

No chance at all for Nicole. Not as bad as Gonzalo, which was not retired. Otto not enough deaths. Others have caused far worse and remain. Same with Earl

[CrazyC83]

Updated my list. I'd give Otto a chance but by no means a slam dunk (in fact I wouldn't retire it).

Matthew is the only one I have the to, although Earl and Otto have some chance. Agreed Nicole won't be retired since it wasn't as bad as Gonzalo (or even Fay) from 2014.

As for the EPAC, almost certainly no retirements this year.

[CrazyC83]

Also to think, had that system over Louisiana been a named storm, that name would probably be getting retired...a possible change of history?

[HurricaneRyan]

Also to think, had that system over Louisiana been a named storm, that name would probably be getting retired...a possible change of history?

When exactly did that form again? It was after Earl right? Fiona would've been the name for it. Which means that if that happened, Matthew would have been named Nicole.

Even if it didn't develop into a named storm, Matthew could've still been named Nicole if TD 8 developed. And of course, if both happened, Matthew would have been Otto.

[CrazyC83]

Also to think, had that system over Louisiana been a named storm, that name would probably be getting retired...a possible change of history?

When exactly did that form again? It was after Earl right? Fiona would've been the name for it. Which means that if that happened, Matthew would have been named Nicole.

Even if it didn't develop into a named storm, Matthew could've still been named Nicole if TD 8 developed. And of course, if both happened, Matthew would have been Otto.

Yep that is correct. I believe Fiona formed (in reality) just after that system.

[DanieleItalyRm]

Good morning friends, what you intend to retreat? I do not understand..
Thanks,

[HurricaneRyan]

Earl's chances have slightly been increased thanks to the TC report bringing the death toll up higher.

[CrazyC83]

The British Caribbean Territories (Bermuda, Cayman Islands, etc.) has proposed requiring that only major hurricanes become eligible for retirement.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/l ... 62bct.docx (DOC file)

I STRONGLY disagree with that. There have been numerous lower-category hurricanes (and a few tropical storms) that have done enormous damage and become historic for different areas. That would have removed storms like Agnes, Allison, Diane (after reanalysis), Fifi, Juan, Noel, Stan and yes, Erika, which was absolutely horrific in Dominica (as bad to them as Katrina was for Louisiana and Mississippi). Also the Gordon snub from 1994 would never have even been considered for technical reasons, not just because Haiti didn't make a case.

[AJC3]

The British Caribbean Territories (Bermuda, Cayman Islands, etc.) has proposed requiring that only major hurricanes become eligible for retirement.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/l ... 62bct.docx (DOC file)

I STRONGLY disagree with that. There have been numerous lower-category hurricanes (and a few tropical storms) that have done enormous damage and become historic for different areas. That would have removed storms like Agnes, Allison, Diane (after reanalysis), Fifi, Juan, Noel, Stan and yes, Erika, which was absolutely horrific in Dominica (as bad to them as Katrina was for Louisiana and Mississippi). Also the Gordon snub from 1994 would never have even been considered for technical reasons, not just because Haiti didn't make a case.

This proposal will get sunk. There is no way the RSMC (NHC) will agree to it.

[Alyono]

The British Caribbean Territories (Bermuda, Cayman Islands, etc.) has proposed requiring that only major hurricanes become eligible for retirement.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/l ... 62bct.docx (DOC file)

I STRONGLY disagree with that. There have been numerous lower-category hurricanes (and a few tropical storms) that have done enormous damage and become historic for different areas. That would have removed storms like Agnes, Allison, Diane (after reanalysis), Fifi, Juan, Noel, Stan and yes, Erika, which was absolutely horrific in Dominica (as bad to them as Katrina was for Louisiana and Mississippi). Also the Gordon snub from 1994 would never have even been considered for technical reasons, not just because Haiti didn't make a case.

It is cat 2+ not major hurricane

6.4 The criteria which is proposed for retiring tropical cyclone names makes use of what is the current criteria, but adds the element of the wind field. The proposed criteria are as follows:
1. The Tropical Cyclone must be a hurricane with a sustained maximum 1-minute wind of 96 mph (154 kmh-1) or higher;
2. The loss of human life and/or major infrastructural damage;
3. Other special reasons.


It is still the most idiotic thing I have ever heard. They are saying a storm like Agnes or Irene should not be retired.

Yes, I have said many times we are too loose on retirement. However, storms like Allison should be retired before storms like Bret. And not retiring Agnes is as dumb as not retiring Nina (though an argument can be made that since Nina was not retired, NO storm should ever be retired)

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

as not retiring Nina (though an argument can be made that since Nina was not retired, NO storm should ever be retired)

What are you referring to? The 2016 supertyphoon Nina did result in both Nina (its name on the only-Philippines list) and Nock-ten (its name on the international western Pacific list) retired.


The 1957 Hurricane Nina that resulted in high winds in Honolulu didn't have its name officially retired, but that's a bit irrelevant since its not on the lists presently used in the Central Pacific, anyway.

The 1975 typhoon that caused huge loss of life in China because of a dam collapse is also moot since the western Pacific names have changed since then. And was China itself even using names for typhoons in 1975? If people in China weren't thinking of the storm as having the name Nina, there would be no reason for them to ask for its retirement.

And retirement has never been worldwide -- it only pertains to the particular "basin". So there is nothing that would prevent a storm near Australia from being named Katrina in the future -- or one in the Atlantic being named Nina, Tracy, or Marcia.

[TheEuropean]

When will we know which names of the 2016 season are retired?