Pouch P49L (Tropical Wave along 51W)

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
208 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the E Atlanctic extending from 06N to 16N with
axis near 23W, expected to move W at 15 kt over the next 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind shear and
dry air intrusion is observed W of the wave axis in both SSMI TPW
imagery and Meteosat Enhanced imagery. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 06N to 13N between 20W and 30W.

[hurricanehunter69]

Starting to show a decent signature on Mimic-TPW http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[Gustywind]

A low pressure has formed...

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2016

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 05N29W to 17N29W moving W at 15 kt.
A 1012 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 08N and remains
embedded within the Monsoon Trough axis. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-14N between 26W-32W.

[GCANE]

P49L:

Good 850mb vort and clear at 200 mb.

GFS initialized it at 1012mb but lost it 42 hrs out.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 05N29W to 17N29W moving W at 15 kt. A
1012 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 08N and remains
embedded within the Monsoon Trough axis. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-14N between 26W-32W.

[Gustywind]

P49L:

Good 850mb vort and clear at 200 mb.

GFS initialized it at 1012mb but lost it 42 hrs out.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 05N29W to 17N29W moving W at 15 kt. A
1012 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 08N and remains
embedded within the Monsoon Trough axis. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-14N between 26W-32W.

Thanks fo all these informations . So as we're heading in... mid October, do you think that we could deal with an Invest during the next 24-72h? Any thoughts about that? Thanks.

[GCANE]

Thanks fo all these informations . So as we're heading in... mid October, do you think that we could deal with an Invest during the next 24-72h? Any thoughts about that? Thanks.

Your welcome.
I think it is possible.
Need to see how this holds up when it gets to about 50W.
What are your thoughts?

[abajan]

Thanks fo all these informations . So as we're heading in... mid October, do you think that we could deal with an Invest during the next 24-72h? Any thoughts about that? Thanks.

Your welcome.
I think it is possible.
Need to see how this holds up when it gets to about 50W.
What are your thoughts?

Well, I'm not Gusty, but I think this is the one that models develop into a cyclone in the Western Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

yeah Abajan thanks for the rotation lol. Agree with you too, it could be that but we should have to wait and see what could really happen.

[abajan]

Pressure has fallen significantly since this morning:

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC. ...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 09N32W to 16N31W moving W at 15 kt. A
1008 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 09N and remains
embedded within the Monsoon Trough axis. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-15N between 26W-38W.


Bears watching.

[Gustywind]

Pressure has fallen significantly since this morning:

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC. ...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 09N32W to 16N31W moving W at 15 kt. A
1008 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 09N and remains
embedded within the Monsoon Trough axis. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-15N between 26W-38W.


Bears watching.

1008, he he... looks like at this rate we could have an invest before the 50W?! That's pretty low... 1008 hpa , we should keep an eye on this one.

[Gustywind]

The low has dissapeared...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121806
TWDAT

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2016

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 06N to
14N with axis near 33W, moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind shear and
dry air intrusion is observed wrapping the wave environment in
CIRA LPW imagery from the surface to 850 mb. Scattered moderate convection
is from 08N to 17N between 25W and 38W.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2016

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends from 15N33W to
7N36W moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough and and is embedded within a
surge of moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 8N-12N between 28W-35W.

[GCANE]

Water vapor coming off Nicole on her east side.
Will be driven south by the ULL at 27N 35W.
Could fill in the dry slot ahead of the wave.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2016

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 40W/41W
from 9N-17N moving west-northwest near 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough and is
embedded within a surge of moisture. Wave is along the western
edge of an upper ridge with clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection removed east of the wave axis from
13N-18N between 32W-39W.

[GCANE]

Seeing an area of significant surface convergence at 9.5N 40W

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... .170,9.472

This appears to be the remant of P49L.

This could be what GFS and Euro are latching onto mid week in the Bahamas.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Tropical wave extends from 04N53W to 12N49W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains fairly low-amplitude and coincides with subtle
700 mb troughing between 47W- 54W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 10N-15N between 51W-55W.