SW Caribbean Disturbance 12.5N 80W

[GeneratorPower]

Feel free to combine this thread with another or remove it, but I think the disturbance in the SW Caribbean needs its own thread. Convection has been persistent down there and previous model runs latched onto it. Like James Spann says, if you have thunderstorms over water this time of year, it needs to be watched.

Saved image:

[WeatherHoon]

Doesn't appear that it'll have time to do anything. I can't tell if it's moving west or NW though.

[abajan]

Just noticed this as I was doing my routine checks of tropical Atlantic satellite imagery. That's pretty heavy convection in the prime location we look at for cyclogenesis at this time of year. Certainly bears watching IMO.

[WPBWeather]

Just noticed this as I was doing my routine checks of tropical Atlantic satellite imagery. That's pretty heavy convection in the prime location we look at for cyclogenesis at this time of year. Certainly bears watching IMO.

You are right, of course. The season is not finished with us yet most likely.

[GeneratorPower]

Doesn't appear that it'll have time to do anything. I can't tell if it's moving west or NW though.

It has been pretty much stationary in this area for about 3-4 days. I've been watching it since the GFS picked up on it a few days ago. It's not really moving much.

[northjaxpro]

It took quite awhile, but now it looks like the monsoonal gyre down in the SW Caribbean is finally taking shape. As always with these gyres, the development process will be slow. However, I think now unfortunately we will probably see another potential tropical cyclone to develop and likely move poleward within the next 7 days.

[psyclone]

meanwhile a rather decent cold front is slated to sweep down next weekend...as it stands now sub 70 highs look to extent into or close to central GA/AL/MS with the possibility of sub 80 highs all the way to central FL.

[WeatherHoon]

Not sure if it matters much, but it looks like there's some spin to it per latest satellite animation.

[Hurricaneman]

This area needs to be watched, it seems like maybe the Gfs might be coming back on board for this area

[WeatherHoon]

[abajan]

Not sure if it matters much, but it looks like there's some spin to it per latest satellite animation.

I noticed that spin too. Something is certainly trying to form there. It may be mentioned in an upcoming TWO. (Perhaps as soon as tonight.)

[floridasun78]

Not sure if it matters much, but it looks like there's some spin to it per latest satellite animation.

I noticed that spin too. Something is certainly trying to form there. It may be mentioned in an upcoming TWO. (Perhaps as soon as tonight.)

look not tonight 8pm not thing

[WeatherHoon]

If they do plan on mentioning anything, I feel like they'd wait until tomorrow. Looking at the latest loop, it looks like it could easily fall apart overnight. We'll see what happens. When it comes to storms, things always seem to drastically change for the better or worse when waking up in the morning.

[GeneratorPower]

If they do plan on mentioning anything, I feel like they'd wait until tomorrow. Looking at the latest loop, it looks like it could easily fall apart overnight. We'll see what happens. When it comes to storms, things always seem to drastically change for the better or worse when waking up in the morning.

It's not going to disappear overnight. There is something there. You can tell because convection has been firing in the area repeatedly day after day in the same location. Whatever it is, it's rooted there and not moving much.

[WeatherHoon]

I will say this, to my untrained eye, it looks wayyy more interesting than the storm that currently has a 40% chance to develop east of Florida.

[floridasun78]

i see spin look going into central America

[abajan]

I will say this, to my untrained eye, it looks wayyy more interesting than the storm that currently has a 40% chance to develop east of Florida.

According to what you earlier posted, it looks wayyy more interesting to the GFS ensembles too!

[WeatherHoon]

NHC makes a mention of the system on their most recent discussion:

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the
western Caribbean near 14N80W. Moisture and cloudiness are
increasing across the western Caribbean as a diffluent
environment continues to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms west of 70W affecting Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
Cayman Islands, and portions of Central America. Mostly clear
skies and fair conditions are noted on satellite imagery E of 70W.
A shear line extends from the west Atlantic across western Cuba
and into the northwest waters from 21N79W to 20N81W. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. During
the next 24-48 hours, global models are suggesting cyclogenesis to
occur N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico resulting in a disruption of
the usual trade wind flow. This system is expected to move
northward across the west Atlantic. A surface trough, currently
located east of the Lesser Antilles, will enter the eastern
Caribbean with convection.

[WeatherHoon]

Thunderstorm activity poofed overnight. Still see some rotation there and what looks like another firing of thunderstorms.

[WeatherHoon]

The GFS and CMC are surprisingly picking up on this area again, albeit very weak. GFS has it in the same location for a few days before moving NW, and then is ultimately picked up by a cold front and is swung NE.