Disturbance in NW Caribbean

[cycloneye]

It has 0% chance to develop.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located over the Gulf of Honduras is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
that extend from near Jamaica westward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea for several hundred miles. Although development of
this system is not expected, locally heavy rains are possible in
Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the coast of Honduras during
the next few days as the low drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Beven

[floridasun78]

this area we been watching sw Caribbean now move nw look this could be area models were picking up few week back

[otowntiger]

It has 0% chance to develop.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located over the Gulf of Honduras is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
that extend from near Jamaica westward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea for several hundred miles. Although development of
this system is not expected, locally heavy rains are possible in
Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the coast of Honduras during
the next few days as the low drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Beven

http://i.imgur.com/y3qf3D3.png

If it has a zero percent chance of developing, then why do they even bother mentioning it? Kind of seems counter intuitive to me. It's an area of disturbed weather that will not do anything so it is really nothing, right?

[WeatherHoon]

Unless 0% means something different in meteorology than it does with general statistics and probability, then yeah, it doesn't make any sense to me as to why they're bothering to mention the area. Maybe it's just something standard for them to mention since it does have some robust thunderstorm activity associated with it that will be affecting land areas. IDK.

[otowntiger]

Unless 0% means something different in meteorology than it does with general statistics and probability, then yeah, it doesn't make any sense to me as to why they're bothering to mention the area. Maybe it's just something standard for them to mention since it does have some robust thunderstorm activity associated with it that will be affecting land areas. IDK.

Yeah, I was thinking that after I had posted the question. They do go on to say that it will/could bring rough weather to some land areas near by. Also in the statement they say "near 0%", so maybe 0.3 %?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about a hundred miles north of the coast of
Honduras. Development of this system is not expected due to strong
upper-level winds. However, the disturbance is forecast to move
little over the next few days, and locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, and Jamaica through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated
with a broad area of low pressure located about a hundred miles
north of the coast of Honduras. While this system is producing
winds to near gale force north of the center, development is
not expected due to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast
to move little over the next few days, and locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, and Jamaica through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[boca]

There is quite a bit of spin down there and it looks like we might see development even though the NHC says 0%

[otowntiger]

There is quite a bit of spin down there and it looks like we might see development even though the NHC says 0%

I suspect they are considering the severe wind shear that will/is happening throughout the basin?

[Nimbus]

Might effect the precipitation percentages in south Florida and the Bahamas once it crosses Cuba.

[Hammy]

Any chance this can still manage to develop?

[cycloneye]

Last TWO.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure
area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea have diminished.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[chaser1]

Any chance this can still manage to develop?

I noticed that Beven put this disturbance as "0 %" chance of development. Furthermore, convection has waned and under normal circumstances one would think that a couple days or greater would be needed to establish some decent organization if a tropical depression were to attempt to form. All that said, there are low pressures in the NW Caribbean with a decent gradient to the north. Looks to me as if there is an easily definable broad low in the region and looking at the maps, shows up nicely at 850mb. Furthermore, there is a large upper anticyclone that is over the area as well (but centered a bit more to the east). If sustained convection were to occur, the upper high would likely build nicely westward and directly over the disturbance. I think there might be issues with low level convergence however with the flow over the extreme SW Caribbean, Central America and into the E. Pacific appearing to be primarily easterly. Often times we see this time of year where the ITCZ is tending to bulge northward from the E. Pac into the SW Caribbean along with a deep tropical flow/tap of moisture from the south (or southwest). We're just not seeing that now though. Furthermore while looking at the water vapor, one can clearly see that there's some dry air that has filtered into the W. Caribbean. Even more obvious and a little odd to me, is the dry sinking air apparent over the far E. Pacific. So while the W. Caribbean would seem to be climatologically the point where one would look for development right now, I think it's lacking the moist low level convergence and perhaps a mid level cap might further be limiting convection as well.

[floridasun78]

it been like we have tropical storm here in south fl wind been up to 50 some part dade because low in Caribbean and high to north

[floridasun78]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five
days.

$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN

[CourierPR]

There is quite a bit of convection in the W. Caribbean this morning. Is there any possibility of development in the days to come?

[chaser1]

There is quite a bit of convection in the W. Caribbean this morning. Is there any possibility of development in the days to come?

Well right now i'd say the best chances for near term development anywhere near the Caribbean, is a few hundred miles to the west and poses a greater threat to Hawaii than it does to anywhere in the Atlantic. "Elvis has left the building" lol.