Low Pressure in Central Atlantic

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE NOV 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east-northeast
of the northern Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness
and showers. Although this system is likely to become non-tropical
during the next couple of days, it could acquire subtropical
characteristics later this week or weekend while moving north-
northeastward and northward into the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

[CrazyC83]

Both GFS and ECMWF do something with this - and GFS brings pressure down into the 975 range.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED NOV 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles is producing
widespread cloudiness and showers. Although this system is
expected to strengthen into a non-tropical gale over the
central Atlantic within the next day or so, it could acquire some
subtropical characteristics late this week or this weekend
while it moves northward or north-northeastward over the
north-central Atlantic. Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC,
and available on the Web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown

[wxman57]

It's attached to a cold front.

[SouthDadeFish]

I wouldn't sleep on this system. I think there is a very legitimate chance for subtropical cyclone formation as the surface low undergoes a warm seclusion process. Model phase space diagrams suggest at the very least, an asymmetric warm-core will form. It's time as a subtropical cyclone may be brief, but I think the most likely window for formation would be between 24-48 hours from now.