SW Caribbean (INVEST 90L is up)

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cycloneye
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SW Caribbean (INVEST 90L is up)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 12, 2016 5:13 am

The last development of the 2016 season?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the early or middle part of next
week. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow
development of this system while it drifts northward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

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Re: SW Caribbean Development

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 12, 2016 6:45 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea by early next week. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for some gradual development
of this system while it drifts northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: SW Caribbean

#3 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Nov 12, 2016 9:59 am

Image

This disturbed area may have a chance to develop early next week before shear impedes the system next week as the upper level winds picks the system up northeastward and a cold front comes down toward the SE U.S. We will monitor.

Also, good model support from GFS and EURO for potential development as well.
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Re: SW Caribbean

#4 Postby NDG » Sat Nov 12, 2016 10:24 am

Another classic Euro vs GFS event before the season ends.
CMC is very aggressive as always for tropical development while the GFS is not very aggressive through the next 7 days keeping the system down there then eventually tracking it across Nica. by day 7.
Euro is between the two models with weak to moderate development gaining subtropical characteristics before eventually merging with a front near the Bahamas.

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Re: SW Caribbean

#5 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Nov 12, 2016 10:28 am

:uarrow: I would bet on a subtropical/hybrid system moving northeastward or merging with that front coming down this time next week.

BTW, that next front coming down the pike may pack a pretty decent cold spell coming down toward the Southeast U.S. by next weekend!!
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Re: SW Caribbean

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 12, 2016 11:46 am

12z GFS is more stronger and sadly,Haiti is on the track but hopefully it doesn't happen.

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Re: SW Caribbean

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 12, 2016 1:08 pm

Up to 30% in 5 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea by early next week. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of
this system while it drifts northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Stewart
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Re: SW Caribbean

#8 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 12, 2016 1:29 pm

I think development chances are higher than 30% that NHC has looking a the 12Z global model guidance.
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Re: SW Caribbean

#9 Postby chaser1 » Sat Nov 12, 2016 4:47 pm

With the 1 Million dollars riding on our S2K 2016 Atlantic poll :lol: , this Caribbean system will likely change it up some.
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Re: SW Caribbean

#10 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Nov 12, 2016 5:23 pm

If this thing develops but stays below hurricane strength, the season would be 15-6-3, which was my original prediction. Maybe I should have left it as is! :(
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Re: SW Caribbean

#11 Postby lrak » Sat Nov 12, 2016 6:08 pm

The BOC looks suspicious too, but condition are bad so who knows you might make it :D
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Re: SW Caribbean

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 12, 2016 6:38 pm

Up to 50% in 5 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the early or middle part of next
week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development of this system while it drifts northward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


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Re: SW Caribbean

#13 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Nov 12, 2016 7:02 pm

Just as we thought it was all over...
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Re: SW Caribbean

#14 Postby abajan » Sat Nov 12, 2016 7:59 pm

weathaguyry wrote:Just as we thought it was all over...
Well, I for one, wasn't in the "Fat lady has sung" camp.
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Re: SW Caribbean

#15 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 12, 2016 9:01 pm

With that strong cold front blasting across the Gulf by next Saturday, this won't be a Gulf or East U.S. Coast threat. It could be trouble for Haiti, though.
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Re: SW Caribbean

#16 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Nov 12, 2016 9:07 pm

wxman57 wrote:With that strong cold front blasting across the Gulf by next Saturday, this won't be a Gulf or East U.S. Coast threat. It could be trouble for Haiti, though.


Wrong Way Lenny comes to mind.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Sat Nov 12, 2016 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SW Caribbean

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 12, 2016 9:19 pm

AnnularCane wrote:If this thing develops but stays below hurricane strength, the season would be 15-6-3, which was my original prediction. Maybe I should have left it as is! :(


Is not out of the question that it becomes at least briefly a minimal hurricane.
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Re: SW Caribbean

#18 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:38 am

Alyono pointed out this modelled storm from the get-go.
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Re: SW Caribbean

#19 Postby abajan » Sun Nov 13, 2016 3:14 am

5-Day Formation Chance up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to gradually form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week
while the low drifts northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

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Re: SW Caribbean

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 13, 2016 6:26 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to gradually form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week
while the low drifts northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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