SW Caribbean (INVEST 90L is up)

[TheStormExpert]

The 00z Euro has become extremely bullish with Major Hurricane developing briefly in the Western/SW Caribbean while the 00z & 06z GFS have this moving directly into Central America with little to no development.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS looks to have dropped development since it moves the area into Central America.

[floridasun78]

nhc still think we see td by late week TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to gradually form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form by late week
while the low drifts northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[Alyono]

MU goes from nothing to a cat 3 hurricane

[abajan]

Lots of heavy convection has been blooming in the general area for the last several hours:

[cycloneye]

Copy and paste.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form by late this week while
the low drifts northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF sends the area NE then it gets blocked and heads back west toward the NW Caribbean through 10 days though in a weakened state. So we could see this system hanging around the SW/Western Caribbean for a while. Saved loop:

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS coming in even more intense. Also the run is closer now to the ECMWF in that it moves NE in the SW Caribbean then gets blocked and heads W. So the GFS is dropping the idea of it moving into Central America which would prohibit development.

[cycloneye]

And on very long range goes like a Lennytype thru Hispanola and North of PR.

[Sanibel]

Looks to be losing environmental support.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface pressures are slowly falling over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea, and a broad low pressure system is expected to form in this
area during the next day or two. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for slow development of this disturbance,
and a tropical depression could form by late this week or over the
weekend while the low drifts northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/798221724798124032

[Alyono]

development chances may be closer to 90 percent. This is looking like a sure thing. Main question is how strong does this become? Given the cooler PDO as of late, we cannot rule out a strong hurricane as a worst case

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF is a little further east than the 00Z but just south of Haiti before it turns back west under a building ridge over FL/Bahamas in the long-range where it gradually weakens out through day 10.

Hopefully this stays far enough away from Haiti as they don't need another one.

[chaser1]

You know, just to make things slightly more interesting there's mid level rotation with yet another wave approaching the Windwards at about 11.5N and 58W. Another poster (Floridasun78) had mentioned this wave about a week ago. I remember thinking "yeah, it'll be January by the time THIS wave makes it that far west given the time of year it was lol. Its held together and there's been weak rotation with this system as its slowly slugged westward while continuing to deal with strong upper level shear. Well, its got 30C SST under it and looks to move under an expanding upper level anticyclone in about 54 hours as it slowly moves into the E. Caribbean. At the same time there's already falling pressures with the area of disturbed weather over the SW Caribbean, and increasing model support for this system to develop.

I'd normally disregard the possibility of two tropical systems trying to form in the Caribbean - especially in November. On the other hand, its not out of the realm of possibility that two storms form 15 degrees apart providing optimum conditions (I believe its not uncommon to see a few Pacific systems to be only 300 miles apart). Certainly not betting on this Eastern wave but an interesting long-shot to watch assuming it survives the shear in about 2-4 days.

[weathaguyry]

Any idea on when this may be tagged as an invest?

[Alyono]

probably not tagged until Thursday. Likely wont see this start developing until the cold front reaches the area. The cold front is the trigger for development

[cycloneye]

Up to 10%-70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms have increased over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low pressure that
is gradually forming across the region. Environmental conditions
are conducive for slow development of this disturbance during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
late this week or over the weekend while the low drifts northward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[weathaguyry]

From the 18z GFS......

[floridasun78]

look water warm down their issue is high shear could cause front coming down fl that likely move it ne by eastern cuba and haiti feel bad for them Dominicana having flood issue now