2017 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT: 50%-70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 23 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to show signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and this system is likely to become a tropical
depression by early next week while it moves slowly west-
northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

INVEST 93E is up

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF develops another system behind 93E.Looks like potential good ACE producer because is well away from land.

[Kingarabian]

12z ECMWF develops another system behind 93E.Looks like potential good ACE producer because is well away from land.

Let's see if the GFS comes on board and develops this same system.

[cycloneye]

@wxtrackercody
Departure of strong upper-level convergence & good ol' climatology support an uptick in E Pacific activity as we approach July.

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/878409284404609024

[Ntxw]

You know, because of Patricia you always take a little pause now when you see a system try to make it's way through this area. Nothing like that of course here.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/878453290022952960

[1900hurricane]

The areas closer in towards Mexico climatologically have the best heat content. It's no accident that the strongest storms of the basin, such as Patricia, Rick, and Kenna occurred there. The waters are warm there right now. However, the warmth is not very deep currently, leading to lower heat content.

[Kingarabian]

Euro continues to show our first cruiser:

[Kingarabian]

Euro trending weaker with that second system. Euro and GFS still have it though.

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/879192875614994432

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian 12z GFS has second system stronger.

[tolakram]

GOES 16 offers a much better way to monitor the EPAC development regions.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastfullDiskband02&lat=14&lon=-98&width=1400&height=900&zoom=4&type=Animation&numframes=10&quality=90


https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastfullDiskband02&lat=14&lon=-126&width=1400&height=900&zoom=4&type=Animation&numframes=10&quality=90

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian 12z GFS has second system stronger.

Yeah, and I think that pretty much assures us that we'll be seeing Eugene since the GFS has actually been one of the more conservative models in the EPAC. The Euro continues to keep it weak. In the Euro's case, it's been doing a good in picking up on TC genesis and doing a good job with their tracks in the medium range. But between runs its been pretty questionable, as it keeps cycling between dropping a system or bringing it back (in both the EPAC and ATL basins).

As soon as we get a designated low area, I'm sure they'll both convene and show development. It'll be interesting to see if Eugene will be a long tracker or it'll hug the coast of Mexico. I want to see how conditions are in the western-EPAC. Especially since the Euro seasonal forecast is showing more favorable conditions, in the far western-EPAC.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS comes in weaker with this upcoming system, but understandably keeps it weak as it develops a 3rd system behind it.

[Yellow Evan]

I guess not all hope is lost.

[Kingarabian]

I'm sure we'll see development of AT LEAST one more system. Models were playing this on and off game with Dora as well. Interesting to see if the OP Euro will show more development as the Parallel had none.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend
while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Eric Blake added our system.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the global models want to develop the disturbance behind the one the NHC has mentioned more.

EPS are giving both disturbances pretty good chances of development though.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

odd forecast

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 14.1N 105.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 03.07.2017 14.9N 106.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 03.07.2017 15.7N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.07.2017 16.6N 110.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

[Kingarabian]

GFS continues to show development, has Eugene this Wednesday, then Fernanda the following week.



Euro Parallel finally on board with development.