2017 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

From Mike Ventrice's site



You can see convectively active kelvin wave moving through soon robustly from the wpac (and eventually Atlantic a bit later) in blue

[Ntxw]

Seems the only thing creating shear in the EPAC are other hurricanes. Other than that there is little if any shear across the entire EPAC. Meanwhile the Atlantic is full of upper-level lows, shear, dry air. Definitely a tale of two worlds at the moment as soon as you cross Central America into the Caribbean.

Wonder what environmental conditions would be like if we didn't have Central America and Mexico splitting up the Atlantic and East Pacific.

It wouldn't be too much different. The Atlantic has to contend with SAL which is dust and mid level dry air due to the climate of N. Africa. If not for that, the Atlantic would be active from May to Nov like the EPAC. Northern SA and CA is a moist region with rainforests along with a moist, warm SW Carib. That would be my guess with initial thoughts.

[RL3AO]

Seems the only thing creating shear in the EPAC are other hurricanes. Other than that there is little if any shear across the entire EPAC. Meanwhile the Atlantic is full of upper-level lows, shear, dry air. Definitely a tale of two worlds at the moment as soon as you cross Central America into the Caribbean.

Wonder what environmental conditions would be like if we didn't have Central America and Mexico splitting up the Atlantic and East Pacific.

It wouldn't be too much different. The Atlantic has to contend with SAL which is dust and mid level dry air due to the climate of N. Africa. If not for that, the Atlantic would be active from May to Nov like the EPAC. Northern SA and CA is a moist region with rainforests along with a moist, warm SW Carib. That would be my guess with initial thoughts.

I'm guessing some major changes due to shifts in ENSO. The cold currents near South America would likely change if warm water from the Atlantic rushed into the Pacific. I'd be curious to see how big the changes are, but I'd lean towards them being massive (for the entire planet) and not minor.

[RL3AO]

Seems the only thing creating shear in the EPAC are other hurricanes. Other than that there is little if any shear across the entire EPAC. Meanwhile the Atlantic is full of upper-level lows, shear, dry air. Definitely a tale of two worlds at the moment as soon as you cross Central America into the Caribbean.

Wonder what environmental conditions would be like if we didn't have Central America and Mexico splitting up the Atlantic and East Pacific.

It wouldn't be too much different. The Atlantic has to contend with SAL which is dust and mid level dry air due to the climate of N. Africa. If not for that, the Atlantic would be active from May to Nov like the EPAC. Northern SA and CA is a moist region with rainforests along with a moist, warm SW Carib. That would be my guess with initial thoughts.

After a little digging, this has actually happened in the past. The Isthmus of Panama is the primary reason the Atlantic Gulf Stream is so strong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_American_Seaway

[cycloneye]

The long range strong Hurricane that GFS has continued to have begins to develop on August 1.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of
Mexico in a day or two. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur for the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Upper-level winds could become
more conducive for some development by the weekend as Hurricane
Hilary moves farther away from the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

EC joins GFS on the long range system.

[Ntxw]

EC joins GFS on the long range system.

Euro does as the range is getting closer. Looks like Jova will likely be tracking next week.

[WeatherGuesser]

Named by Monday?

If so, any kind of anything to note for July?

[Ntxw]

Named by Monday?

If so, any kind of anything to note for July?

Nothing record shattering just very active. Probably top 5 ACE for July

[Ntxw]

GOES 16 view of the twins Hilary and Irwin

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/889949617315557377



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/889961309823012866

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS going down to 948mb for the system is has been showing for next week which moves close to the Mexican coastline. Skeptical on this intensity prediction.

[NDG]

It looks like this month will fall short to July of last year with the number of named storms & hurricanes. Environment not quiet as good as last year. All in all still a very impressive cyclone production month in the EPAC, especially compared to the rest of the basins.

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/890016894098583552

[Kingarabian]

It looks like this month will fall short to July of last year with the number of named storms & hurricanes. Environment not quiet as good as last year. All in all still a very impressive cyclone production month in the EPAC, especially compared to the rest of the basins.

Last year the storms had space and time between them. This year they sheared each other apart. Greg shouldve became a hurricane but didn't because of proximity to Irwin, and Hilary has the same issues.

[Kingarabian]

Main thing for this season is ASO. Last seasons ASO could've been better but didn't due to the Niña shear.

[Ntxw]

Pretty consistent signal from general guidance EPAC will have potential Jova next week. Area of interest should start showing up late this weekend and might be a hurricane by late week

[Hurricaneman]

Pretty consistent signal from general guidance EPAC will have potential Jova next week. Area of interest should start showing up late this weekend and might be a hurricane by late week

Its from the disturbance currently north of Panama I believe, I'm surprised it's not at least lemoned

[gatorcane]

Pretty consistent signal from general guidance EPAC will have potential Jova next week. Area of interest should start showing up late this weekend and might be a hurricane by late week
http://i64.tinypic.com/6ycylw.png

Not too sure about this at least a strong Jova. Looking at the ECMWF and CMC models there isn't anything anywhere near as strong as the GFS shows not to mention the upgraded GFS has been far too bullish on some systems in the EPAC already. Big flop on Hillary for example.

Also long-range shows the EPAC really starting to slow as expected as we head into August so Atlantic's turn should be around the corner.