2017 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Yeah definitely going to surpass last years outbreak.

[gatorcane]

Was going to post that image above. Yes what an outbreak, very impressed.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

Yeah definitely going to surpass last years outbreak.

I think on the conservative side 60-80 total seasonal ACE (it's over 40 now) is quite achievable with this outbreak, possibly higher. The trend the past several years is the strongest storms tend to occur later in the season in Sept and October or late August. The odds are increasing fourth consecutive hyperactive EPAC season could be in the works.

And really this outbreak began with Dora back in late June,

[gatorcane]

Well why not post this image. If we could go more east in this image, we would see more lining up.

[Kingarabian]

Some body lit a fire over what is essentially a large mass of fuel called the Pacific ocean.

Btw that NHC graphic does not show the two other storms that the models are consistently showing in the long range.

[Ntxw]

GOES 16



Just curious question, could the last system be an entanglement of Don leftovers?

[Kingarabian]

GOES 16

[img]http://i64.tinypic.com/2ez0oed.png[img]

Phew.

[Yellow Evan]

GOES 16

http://i64.tinypic.com/2ez0oed.png

Just curious question, could the last system be an entanglement of Don leftovers?

Ex-Don is over the central Caribbean. The next two systems are currently in the EPAC.

[Ntxw]

In June some anomalous cooler waters were present across the EPAC MDR that was somewhat of a problem. But it's warmed up since, and more importantly shear tendencies dropped quite a bit.

[cycloneye]

I wonder why the 50/80 area of interest is not a invest yet.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized cloudiness and showers in the far eastern Pacific
near and west of Central America are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly
favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Ntxw]

Both GFS and Euro support a very large, strong hurricane that spins up early next week and deepens within 7 days from now off the west coast of Mexico. Along with the various development with current storms. But strong consensus of the prior.

[cycloneye]

Yes,A very strong Hurricane in 7 days.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized cloudiness and showers in the far eastern Pacific
southwest of Central America are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly
favorable for development, and a tropical depression will likely
form by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 90E is up

[Ntxw]

90E is one to watch. If some guidance are correct it could give Fernanda a run for the money on the strongest storm of the season to date. Should be a sprawling hurricane by midweek. Send some big surf to California perhaps.

[Kingarabian]

90E is one to watch. If some guidance are correct it could give Fernanda a run for the money on the strongest storm of the season to date. Should be a sprawling hurricane by midweek. Send some big surf to California perhaps.

They're so close to each other that whichever invest gets its act together first, will become the dominant one.

[Ntxw]

90E is one to watch. If some guidance are correct it could give Fernanda a run for the money on the strongest storm of the season to date. Should be a sprawling hurricane by midweek. Send some big surf to California perhaps.

They're so close to each other that whichever invest gets its act together first, will become the dominant one.

I wonder if Greg, if he continues to strengthen will give 99E problems and make way for 90E. Or all 3 could be named and going at once . So much going on.

Hmon and HWRF-Parallel wants to develop 99E also.

[cycloneye]

Big Advantage for 90E is the farther south latitude (Below 10N) and the separation from 99E almost by 20 longitudes.

[Ntxw]

Way out there on GFS and probably won't be the exact storm in fantasy range anyway. But hey, since EPAC is a cyclone factory right now..why not Jova?