2017 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

EPS members seems to show Dora being another weak MX TS and then Eugene at some point latter on in the period.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

EC has decent prob odds on a storm.

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
CFSv2 gets excited about Eastern Pacific tropical storms in 2-weeks @EricBlake12 It's a ghost town out there now

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/877662856329785344

[Ntxw]

July is westward long tracker month for the EPAC. Maybe that will end the short tracks S of Mex and start collecting ACE

[hurricanes1234]

Hmmm ... will this be another short-lived Mexico system if it forms? Let's see what happens.

1. A broad area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some development of this system is possible by this weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Hmmm ... will this be another short-lived Mexico system if it forms? Let's see what happens.

1. A broad area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some development of this system is possible by this weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Most likely short lived.

[Yellow Evan]

EPS/CFS continue to show stuff in the long range but not bringing the time frame down.

[Kingarabian]

Euro also has a robust wave coming off CA @ the 240hr mark.

[Kingarabian]

First cruiser of the season per the Euro:



GFS is also starting to show development as well.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,after that ECMWF forms another one on days 9-10.Looks like EPAC may get busy and add some needed ACE.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian,after that ECMWF forms another one on days 9-10.Looks like EPAC may get busy and add some needed ACE.

Yep.



Almost similar to last seasons late June - July burst.

[Yellow Evan]

EPS timeframe moving down of a future TC outbreak. Now hinting at stuff around day 9.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/878004834439266305



 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/878006222393417729



 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/878006539323416576

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT: 20%-50%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 22 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of this system by early next week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[RL3AO]

Looks like the north winds from the west side of Cindy shot through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and helped spin up a vortex near the low-level westerlies still in place from the monsoon gyre.

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
First hurricane of Eastern Pacific season seems likely by early next week off the coast of Mexico. Dora is next name

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/878062498305331200

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF brought this near Soccoro Island as a hurricane but the 0z brings this ashore in 84 hours.

[Kingarabian]

12z ECMWF brought this near Soccoro Island as a hurricane but the 0z brings this ashore in 84 hours.

Classic Euro. It'll rotate between development and non development between each run.

[Kingarabian]

GFS showing more development on the first system this run.

[Kingarabian]

Looks invest worthy