2017 EPAC Season

[WeatherGuesser]

Last reference I could find for Fernanda was at 144, so what's at 165?

And what are those east of Hilary?

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Way out there on GFS and probably won't be the exact storm in fantasy range anyway. But hey, since EPAC is a cyclone factory right now..why not Jova?

I bet when that happens it's Hurricane Irwin!
Reasons is that Invest 99E is pretty unlikely to be ever a TS given it's close position into Greg. Proximity to Greg might turn down, if not turn off that TD.

Well it's isn't. Certainly Jova.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Last reference I could find for Fernanda was at 144, so what's at 165?

And what are those east of Hilary?

That could be a tropical wave that is located west from pre-Jova tropical wave. It could be also a pre-Jova's wave, i don't know much about it yet!

[Kingarabian]

GFS showing Jova and Kenneth. EPS on board with further development.

[Ntxw]

Euro fujiwharas Irwin and Hilary, how crazy would that be? GFS still hinting at Jova

[Ntxw]

On a side note, EPAC ACE is going to rise very quickly with possible twin hurricanes (Irwin and Hilary) side by side. Near 50 now may end at 75+ when they are done

[gatorcane]

The hurricane factory continues with two more in the long-range, these look closer to the Mexican coast than previous systems:

[cycloneye]

New area to watch. Kingarabian,is this area what GFS has as a strong Hurricane or is another one?

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of
Mexico in a couple of days. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds from
Hurricane Hilary. The system is forecast to move west-
northwestward at about 5 to 10 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Ntxw]

New area to watch. Kingarabian,is this area what GFS has as a strong Hurricane or is another one?

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of
Mexico in a couple of days. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds from
Hurricane Hilary. The system is forecast to move west-
northwestward at about 5 to 10 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Models generally don't develop it much but maybe a weak TD? Every convective area seems to want to become a cyclone. Jova is a little further back on the GFS

[Kingarabian]

New area to watch. Kingarabian,is this area what GFS has as a strong Hurricane or is another one?

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of
Mexico in a couple of days. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds from
Hurricane Hilary. The system is forecast to move west-
northwestward at about 5 to 10 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

This one is before it. GFS and the Euro spun it up a few days ago. Hillary's outflow will likely stop it from developing but it has the chance to become something temporarily.



But since we're talking about Jova, NHC will likely circle it soon as models begin development in around a week. There also may be another system behind Jova that has the potential to be Kenneth in two weeks.

And this is pretty fascinating considering we're at the tail end of a suppressed CCKW and the MJO is still stuck in in the WPac. Models appears to have have a favorable CCKW moving into the region in a week or two or so that may push for further activity.

[Ntxw]

Euro is still calling for the elusive fujiwhara merge of formidable hurricanes, Irwin and Hilary.

[Kingarabian]

Euro is still calling for the elusive fujiwhara merge of formidable hurricanes, Irwin and Hilary.

I don't think that's ever happened before... a storm eating another storm. Don't know how much I believe that scenario.

[Ntxw]

Euro is still calling for the elusive fujiwhara merge of formidable hurricanes, Irwin and Hilary.

I don't think that's ever happened before... a storm eating another storm. Don't know how much I believe that scenario.

Bigger storms absorbing smaller systems is not too out there. But 2 big hurricanes dancing is fairly rare

[Kingarabian]

Euro is still calling for the elusive fujiwhara merge of formidable hurricanes, Irwin and Hilary.

I don't think that's ever happened before... a storm eating another storm. Don't know how much I believe that scenario.

Bigger storms absorbing smaller systems is not too out there. But 2 big hurricanes dancing is fairly rare

That would be for the books. A cat.4 absorbing a cat.2-3.

But it'll make for nice GIF's and satellite imagery.

[Kingarabian]

Euro moves that newly circled disturbance west and eventually makes it a TS.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of
Mexico in a couple of days. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds
associated with Hurricane Hilary. The system is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Ntxw]

GFS still is inching for strong Jova next week in a similar fashion that Hilary is for this week

[Ntxw]

RL3AO mentioned the spur of activity is too much of a good thing effecting each other so close with some disfavored conditions with high octane WPAC activity, which seems to be true. Rising motion will arrive once Hilary is done and GFS still insists a potential Jova to take advantage alone

Which btw is now joining euro in fujiwhara of what is now both hurricanes, Irwin and Hilary

[gatorcane]

Seems the only thing creating shear in the EPAC are other hurricanes. Other than that there is little if any shear across the entire EPAC. Meanwhile the Atlantic is full of upper-level lows, shear, dry air. Definitely a tale of two worlds at the moment as soon as you cross Central America into the Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

Seems the only thing creating shear in the EPAC are other hurricanes. Other than that there is little if any shear across the entire EPAC. Meanwhile the Atlantic is full of upper-level lows, shear, dry air. Definitely a tale of two worlds at the moment as soon as you cross Central America into the Caribbean.

Wonder what environmental conditions would be like if we didn't have Central America and Mexico splitting up the Atlantic and East Pacific.