2017 EPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#401 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:55 pm

An area of low pressure is expected to form in the eastern
Pacific Ocean south of Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of the system this
the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#402 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 18, 2017 6:04 pm

Last minute craziness before its put to bed:

Image

GFS Parallel, Euro showing activity continuing to ramp up in the Eastern Pacific by the end of this week. We could be at 80-100 ACE by the end of July as the GFS Parallel is showing 3 major hurricanes (one in the CPAC and 2 in the CPAC) + some TS's, GFS showing that CPAC major and is keeping Fernanda @ hurricane strength for another 10 days. Euro showing major hurricanes as well.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#403 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:49 pm

Yes the EPAC is on fire. Reminds me of last year too around this time. The GFS-P has another big cane in long-range the NHC has not mentioned yet:

Image
1 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#404 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:52 pm

Growing model and forecaster consensus for a favorable MJO near the beginning of August in the EPAC. Could get another outbreak (or maybe the current one will just continue).
1 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#405 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:33 pm

7/3/2 with above normal ACE and Greg is trying for Hurricane status. Yeah EPAC hasn't skipped a beat since 2014.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#406 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:41 pm

Ntxw wrote:7/3/2 with above normal ACE and Greg is trying for Hurricane status. Yeah EPAC hasn't skipped a beat since 2014.


Correlates with the warm PDO phase.

Well on our way to surpass 2016.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#407 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 19, 2017 5:53 am

More to come after this.

@MJVentrice
This is what we call a "String of Pearls" tropical cyclone outbreak over the East Pacific.


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/887624212042612736


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#408 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:36 am

1. A tropical wave located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days and a tropical depression could form
well southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the
southeastern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Some gradual
development of this system is possible early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#409 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:42 am

Updated GFS makes Greg a hurricane, with the interest systems behind it to follow as well
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#410 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:56 am

:uarrow: And after the last one it has a monster in very long range.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#411 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:07 pm

:eek:

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#412 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:10 pm

That's an awesome monsoon trough SW of Central America on that model run. Tropical cyclone factory.
3 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#413 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:16 pm

EPAC may surpass the Atlantic's average total ACE for the entire hurricane season in just a couple of weeks. :double:
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#414 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:32 pm

11 AM PDT

A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of this system over the next several days
and a tropical depression is likely to form well southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the
coast of Mexico over the weekend. Some gradual development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#415 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:51 pm

The EPAC is nonstop!

Image
1 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#416 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jul 19, 2017 2:25 pm

Euro is not too different. Its not as strong with Greg

Image
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#417 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:43 pm

UKMET with really strong development on a system the NHC has yet to mention yet (should be in a TWO coming soon)...kindaof hard to tell which system this is due to so much activity over the EPAC:

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#418 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:37 pm

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are expected to
become more conducive for development of this system over the next
couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph,
and a tropical depression is expected to form well southwest of
Mexico late this week or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Another large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is
moving westward across southern portions of Central America into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. An area of low pressure associated
with this disturbance is forecast to form south of Mexico late this
week, and development is possible by early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2620
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#419 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Jul 19, 2017 7:13 pm

I can't believe the 50/80 one isn't an invest yet.
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#420 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 19, 2017 7:40 pm

@EricBlake12
5 current TCs or eastern Pacific disturbances right now- talk about an outbreak! This is outstanding even for this basin-


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/887833598329540608


1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], pepecool20 and 67 guests