2017 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

As I posted in one of the ATL threads, GFS is moving the MJO too fast.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: As I posted in one of the ATL threads, GFS is moving the MJO too fast.

It probably is, I generally trust the Euro MJO more but we'll see how the upgrade performs. I'm not a huge buyer in MJO totally, a good signal but not always necessary. CCKWs can blur the true MJO sometimes too

[Kingarabian]

Way out there on GFS and probably won't be the exact storm in fantasy range anyway. But hey, since EPAC is a cyclone factory right now..why not Jova?

[img]http://i63.tinypic.com/rmqv6p.png[/mg]

By the time this outbreak is over and If these systems do not bust, we should see at least our J system, if not K.

[Kingarabian]

We should all monitor the Atlantic MDR. Usually systems that can't develop there have their Vorts making it across the Caribbean and in the EPac.

[dexterlabio]

:uarrow: As I posted in one of the ATL threads, GFS is moving the MJO too fast.

It probably is, I generally trust the Euro MJO more but we'll see how the upgrade performs. I'm not a huge buyer in MJO totally, a good signal but not always necessary. CCKWs can blur the true MJO sometimes too

BTW where are you getting the MJO updates and forecast? On the CPC website the ECMWF model forecasts for the MJO are still unavailable, the last updated data was from 10 days ago.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Way out there on GFS and probably won't be the exact storm in fantasy range anyway. But hey, since EPAC is a cyclone factory right now..why not Jova?

I bet when that happens it's Hurricane Irwin!
Reasons is that Invest 99E is pretty unlikely to be ever a TS given it's close position into Greg. Proximity to Greg might turn down, if not turn off that TD.

[RL3AO]

[gatorcane]

It certainly is acting very "El-Nino-ish" with this hyperactive EPAC. To think just a month ago, it didn't look like it would be as active as last year and now there are so many systems it is hard to keep track of them all.

[Ntxw]

It certainly is acting very "El-Nino-ish" with this hyperactive EPAC. To think just a month ago, it didn't look like it would be as active as last year and now there are so many systems it is hard to keep track of them all.

Even though El Nino seasons can be big seasons for the EPAC, it is better correlated to more intense storms. +PDO is a better indicator as many mentioned earlier in the season. The stretch that the EPAC is going through is comparable to 2003-2005 in the Atlantic. Most of the top EPAC seasons are between Nino events during +PDO such as 1983, 1985, 1990, 1992, 1993 etc. 2015 was anomalous on its own.

[NDG]

It certainly is acting very "El-Nino-ish" with this hyperactive EPAC. To think just a month ago, it didn't look like it would be as active as last year and now there are so many systems it is hard to keep track of them all.

Last year was a La Niña and there were 5 hurricanes during the month of July with 3 of them being major hurricanes. PDO has a lot more to do with it like Ntxw mentioned.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has been consistently showing another big one in the long-range:

[Kingarabian]

All these systems are struggling with shear.

[TheStormExpert]

All these systems are struggling with shear.

Could that mean favorable conditions are located in the western half of the east Pacific and the central Pacific like you'd see in a Modoki El Niño?

[Ntxw]

All these systems are struggling with shear.

They are all so close to each other to begin with

[WeatherGuesser]

Next?



Goin' Greek this year?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

There might be room for one more storm this month after Hilary/Irwin, and then it looks like things may potentially calm down. Fits well with climatology, where the East Pacific has a peak in mid/late July and then a lull until late August.

[Kingarabian]

There might be room for one more storm this month after Hilary/Irwin, and then it looks like things may potentially calm down. Fits well with climatology, where the East Pacific has a peak in mid/late July and then a lull until late August.

There will be another low pressure area after Hillary/Irwin. Models on and off about developing it.

[Kingarabian]

If the GFS is right, Irwin and Hillary will both be major hurricanes within 72 hours and keeps them strong for another 4 days. We could easily see 100 ACE if that musters.

[Ntxw]

GFS is still hinting at potential Jova, it's been there pretty persistently. Looking at 200hpa velocities, the reason Greg, Irwin and the waves before it were facing some problems is the nature of the somewhat unfavorable background but with such vigorous waves established they were able to make do. It's going to switch more favorable though late July and early August as the rising motion from the WPAC makes its way eastward.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has back the long range strong Hurricane Jova.