2017 EPAC Season

[TheStormExpert]

This doesn't look good for there to be another hyperactive EPAC year...

Yeah you should see the Atlantic, especially the Tropical Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS has what would be Calvin 250 hours out.

Good luck with getting that to verify.

[gatorcane]

This also does not look good for the EPAC and really not something we are used to seeing the past couple of years. Usually all the shear is on the Caribbean side. 18Z GFS shear anomalies:

[TheStormExpert]

This also does not look good for the EPAC and really not something we are used to seeing the past couple of years. Usually all the shear is on the Caribbean side. 18Z GFS shear anomalies:

Looks La Niña-ish.

[Kingarabian]

Guys it's June 2nd. The EPAC on average doesn't see its second storm until June 25th. We've had two already.

[cycloneye]

Guys it's June 2nd. The EPAC on average doesn't see its second storm until June 25th. We've had two already.

But those two were brief ones that didn't produced good ACE units.

[Kingarabian]

Guys it's June 2nd. The EPAC on average doesn't see its second storm until June 25th. We've had two already.

But those two were brief ones that didn't produced good ACE units.

Which is fine. Better start than last seasons when we really didnt see anything get going until July. Yet we ended up way above average despite the La Nina.

[Kingarabian]

GFS continues to show Calvin. Let's see if the Euro followa suit.

[Yellow Evan]

This doesn't look good for there to be another hyperactive EPAC year...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... p_THDV.gif

Favors weak but abundant systems. More like 1986 than 1991.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS. Has Calvin becoming a solid hurricane. Time frame coming in:



Edit: Nothing on the 00z Euro. It has the same vort as the GFS but keeps it overland through southern Mx.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/870765965025214464

[cycloneye]

12z GFS begins development of Calvin in 8 days and then turns into a Hurricane south of Guatemala.

[Yellow Evan]

Some support in EPS output though other runs show it in the BOC. Keep a close eye if main ECMWF catches on to this. Until then, it's fantasy.

[Kingarabian]

Some support in EPS output though other runs show it in the BOC. Keep a close eye if main ECMWF catches on to this. Until then, it's fantasy.

The Euro has the same system, same time frame. Only difference is that it keeps north and over the southern parts of Mexico while the GFS is more south and over water. Similar to what we saw with Beatriz. Euro had it over water thus showing development and the GFS was keeping it over land.

Looks like the difference here is the placement and strength of the high SE of Florida.

Euro has a weakness, with a weaker high displaced to the east:



GFS has a much stronger high situated more west:

[cycloneye]

Still nothing from ECMWF.

[Kingarabian]

Still nothing from ECMWF.

12z Euro comes in with its most southern and strongest fix of this system:

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS members show more development in the BOC compared to the previous 00z/12z runs.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS fails to develop in EPAC as it causes extensive rains in Central America and then develops in the GOM side but is long range that portion.

[weathaguyry]

It appears a pattern in some analogs for the 2017 Hurricane Season is a lot of storms near the Mexican Coast, so that may mean that we'll have a lot of back and forth in the models over formation for the EPAC or formation for the Atlantic, but overall looks pretty unfavorable elsewhere

[dexterlabio]

So far, it looks like we're having a repeat of last year, not only in the Eastern Pacific, but also in the far western Pacific. We've had opportunities to see intense systems forming out of the MJO/Kelvin wave passage but there were only a few weak storms that developed. If it's really a repeat though we should see the potent ones forming around July.