2017 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

Kingarabian,GFS-Para is like a machine producer.

Yeah it seems like they've combined the CMC with it . It's a factory for TC development but only in the EPac lol.

Jokes aside, the Euro is coming on board for development of a fourth system. So it seems like the GFS Parallel is not that crazy.

The Euro has a couple more after Fernanda. Looks like a busy week to two. It's possible nearly half of the season's total ACE could be achieved.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of Mexico during the weekend. Gradual development of this
system is anticipated, and a tropical depression could form
southwest of Mexico early next week while the system moves slowly
toward the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Ntxw]

Fernanda is 3rd hurricane of the season and now 2nd official major on her way to being a cat 4. No sign of a slow season so far. Shear has been very favorable for the EPAC even without bath waters.

By all metrics when this storm is done EPAC will probably be above normal in names and ACE. Goes to show that above normal sst's is not everything, long term favorability in the atmosphere counts just as much if not more

[weathaguyry]

Fernanda is 3rd hurricane of the season and now 2nd official major on her way to being a cat 4. No sign of a slow season so far. Shear has been very favorable for the EPAC even without bath waters.

By all metrics when this storm is done EPAC will probably be above normal in names and ACE. Goes to show that above normal sst's is not everything, long term favorability in the atmosphere counts just as much if not more

I think that slightly above average is likely, but if the Atlantic starts to pick up in the next few weeks, it may not be as hyperactive as we saw the last few years

[Ntxw]

Fernanda is 3rd hurricane of the season and now 2nd official major on her way to being a cat 4. No sign of a slow season so far. Shear has been very favorable for the EPAC even without bath waters.

By all metrics when this storm is done EPAC will probably be above normal in names and ACE. Goes to show that above normal sst's is not everything, long term favorability in the atmosphere counts just as much if not more

I think that slightly above average is likely, but if the Atlantic starts to pick up in the next few weeks, it may not be as hyperactive as we saw the last few years

I don't know about hyperactive, but at least average or above average is likely. The EPAC is going through a similar phase the Atlantic did from the period of 2002-2005. Things are more clear about the EPAC than Atlantic forecasts as of now which has more questions than answers.

[weathaguyry]

Fernanda is 3rd hurricane of the season and now 2nd official major on her way to being a cat 4. No sign of a slow season so far. Shear has been very favorable for the EPAC even without bath waters.

By all metrics when this storm is done EPAC will probably be above normal in names and ACE. Goes to show that above normal sst's is not everything, long term favorability in the atmosphere counts just as much if not more

I think that slightly above average is likely, but if the Atlantic starts to pick up in the next few weeks, it may not be as hyperactive as we saw the last few years

I don't know about hyperactive, but at least average or above average is likely. The EPAC is going through a similar phase the Atlantic did from the period of 2002-2005. Things are more clear about the EPAC than Atlantic forecasts as of now which has more questions than answers.

Very true, this season is a big question mark, because all signs point to favorable in the EPAC, but there are also some favorable signs for the Atlantic, so we are going to have an EPAC/Atlantic battle this year

[Yellow Evan]

I don't know about hyperactive, but at least average or above average is likely. The EPAC is going through a similar phase the Atlantic did from the period of 2002-2005. Things are more clear about the EPAC than Atlantic forecasts as of now which has more questions than answers.

Very true, this season is a big question mark, because all signs point to favorable in the EPAC, but there are also some favorable signs for the Atlantic, so we are going to have an EPAC/Atlantic battle this year

Last year was the first time ever both the EPAC and ATL had above average ACE. With vertical instability in the EPAC improving, real chance that could repeat again.

[weathaguyry]

I don't know about hyperactive, but at least average or above average is likely. The EPAC is going through a similar phase the Atlantic did from the period of 2002-2005. Things are more clear about the EPAC than Atlantic forecasts as of now which has more questions than answers.

Very true, this season is a big question mark, because all signs point to favorable in the EPAC, but there are also some favorable signs for the Atlantic, so we are going to have an EPAC/Atlantic battle this year

Last year was the first time ever both the EPAC and ATL had above average ACE. With vertical instability in the EPAC improving, real chance that could repeat again.

I think that a repeat of last year is most likely for both basins, although the PDO is somewhat less positive, the ENSO is close to El-Nino, so it balances out.

[Ntxw]

GFS-P mildy develops of the area of interest behind Fernanda and moves NW. Euro doesn't do much with it but has another system behind that going west that GFS-P has also

[cycloneye]

Disorganized cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be
slow to occur as the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[gatorcane]

The GFS para is cranking out storm after storm in the EPAC the next two weeks.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Disorganized cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Doubt this one develops anytime soon. Outflow from Fernanda is going to restrict development and keep it weak. Maybe it develops in the CPAC.

[Kingarabian]

Anyone see the 12z GFS Parallel and 12zEuro?



We're going to need two more yellow markers after the new area listed above and future Greg by southern Mexico. Only problem there's not enough space lol.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 98E is up

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro has a new one not being mentioned by NHC yet getting intense in the long-range.

[cycloneye]

Yet another area of low pressure is expected to form in the far
eastern Pacific south of Mexico in a few days. Conditions appear
favorable for some development of this system by late weekc while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

After TD Seven and Invest 98E, the Euro shows 3 more systems. We could possibly get Kenneth before July ends.

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/887328781106647040

[Ntxw]

Generally speaking, guidance still supports turning of TCs in the EPAC. This basin is holding up most of the NHEM ACE. Without it, global output would be barely above the ground.