2017 EPAC Season
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
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tolakram
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Latest GFS run. Ridiculous range, but what the heck. 
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M a r k
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TheStormExpert
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Off topic but what's that coming out of the Eastern Caribbean.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Off topic but what's that coming out of the Eastern Caribbean.
I posted that at the models thread.GFS had been back and forth on that but is long range.OK let's return to the topic of this thread.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118543&p=2578205#p2578205
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cycloneye
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan,12z GFS is with it again.
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Unfortunately the GFS still has the same problem.
Classic ghost storm. Keeps pushing the time frame back.
Classic ghost storm. Keeps pushing the time frame back.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Time frame moving forward and still there at 0z GFS. Expect it be dropped within a day or so, but it may come back once the time frame moves closer.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
GFS has no clue as it is between EPAC and Western Caribbean.That is why long range is not good to follow too much.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
EPS long-range still hinting at the old GFS model storm, so bears watching though the timeframe has been pushed back.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
In other news, it looks like the April +PDO could continue the uptick again from March which was a slight increase. The cold tongue from Japan to the Gulf of Alaska is classic +PDO
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cycloneye
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
First time in 2017 that the ECMWF has something. (Day 10) Now let's see if it continues to show it in future runs.
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Yeah. Some EPS members show development around day 9 and every single member shows development by day 11. Some of the members show this becoming a robust hurricane. Well in line for the start of the EPAC hurricane season.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Someone want to start a thread for EPAC guesses? I know the following isn't large but it would be cool to see some guesses to compare
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Yellow Evan
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Ntxw wrote:Someone want to start a thread for EPAC guesses? I know the following isn't large but it would be cool to see some guesses to compare
Just post them here and I'll edit the first post where I'll keep track, if that's okay.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:Ntxw wrote:Someone want to start a thread for EPAC guesses? I know the following isn't large but it would be cool to see some guesses to compare
Just post them here and I'll edit the first post where I'll keep track, if that's okay.
Sounds good to me!
After learning from you guys that +PDO is a strong indicator (arguably even more than ENSO) I like 1984, 1985, 1994, and 2014 subset. All within decent +PDO periods and string of active seasons for the EPAC and all followed a significant El Nino event in years prior. My guess would be 21/13/7 ACE of 185
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cycloneye
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
My numbers are 20/11/5 with ACE at 160.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
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Kingarabian
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hurricanes1234
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
I'm thinking 18-19 named storms, 11-12 hurricanes, 4-5 majors as of now. Still a bit of uncertainty at the moment due to ENSO though.
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weathaguyry
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season
17/9/4 I'm not seeing many strong signals for above average, however there aren't many strong signals for below average, so I would say that near-slightly above average seems reasonable
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