2017 EPAC Season

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Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#521 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:00 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:You would think the EPAC would slow down some with all that dry air.

[img]http://tropicwatch.info/dry080520172030.jpg[img]


Dry air in the Epac works differently compared to the dry air in the Atlantic.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#522 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 05, 2017 5:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Not sure if it's an active MJO pulse or a Kelvin, but it's on the way and traversing through the CPac->EPac.

Image

GFS continues in showing Jova in 10 days + UKMET support (if these models are to be believed).

Euro continues to drop pressures in the same timeframe:

Image


Ensembles and the globals do show lowering pressures. Just got to see the shear forecast
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#523 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 05, 2017 5:58 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Not sure if it's an active MJO pulse or a Kelvin, but it's on the way and traversing through the CPac->EPac.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/2crsnRE.gif[img]

GFS continues in showing Jova in 10 days + UKMET support (if these models are to be believed).

Euro continues to drop pressures in the same timeframe:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/Xdf3AJe.png[img]


Ensembles and the globals do show lowering pressures. Just got to see the shear forecast


Per the 12z Euro:

Through 5 days, shear is favorable in the western EPac and unfavorable in the eastern EPac (probably due to outflow from future Franklin in the BOC).

Days 6 - 10 favorable shear is widespread across the whole basin. Look for TC genesis around this time.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#524 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:15 am

Great 00z EPS support for multiple TC systems in the EPac in 7 days. The signal from the EPS is strong - strongest since the July outbreak.

GFS continues to show TC genesis within 7 days and the Euro continues to spin up a swath of lows in the same time frame.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#525 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:46 pm

18z GFS has WPac esque Monsoon trough, spawning TC's rapidly:

Image

Coincides well with an active MJO signal.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#526 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:53 pm

:uarrow: GFS likes be move the MJO too fast. Think ECMWf may be more accurate in the short term.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#527 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:14 pm

I'm not seeing a coherent MJO signal. There hasn't been one for awhile. In large part the next lowering of pressures and increase in activity is in accordance with another passing CCKW currently in the CPAC.

This one appears more focused for the EPAC than the recent one which came and went pretty quickly. Whether it amounts to activity is up for debate but that's likely what the models are seeing.

Image
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#528 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:I'm not seeing a coherent MJO signal. There hasn't been one for awhile. In large part the next lowering of pressures and increase in activity is in accordance with another passing CCKW currently in the CPAC.

This one appears more focused for the EPAC than the recent one which came and went pretty quickly. Whether it amounts to activity is up for debate but that's likely what the models are seeing.

[img]https://preview.ibb.co/cxE5CF/hov.png[/mg]


Ooh. Yeah these CCKW/MJO can be confusing. But it's interesting that we're seeing another CCKW so quickly. That's quite a pulse from the GFS...
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#529 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 07, 2017 5:06 am

GFS and EPS have a CPac TS homebrew.

Euro has a quick strike TS off of western Mexico in 48-72hrs. Continues to show it. May need an NHC circle soon.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#530 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:41 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 7 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form during the next day or so
several hundred miles south of the coast of Mexico. Development, if
any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#531 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 07, 2017 4:01 pm

Ntxw, wouldn't this graphic from MVentrice point to the MJO being in the EPac?

http://i.imgur.com/E5dXUm9.jpg
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#532 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:17 am

Euro now showing a strong system in the Epac, in line with the GFS.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#533 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:14 pm

Euro fully on board for a significant EPac hurricane, in line with the GFS:

Image
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#534 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:28 am

Kingarabian wrote:Ntxw, wouldn't this graphic from MVentrice point to the MJO being in the EPac?

http://i.imgur.com/E5dXUm9.jpg


I'd defer to him since it is his field of work, if he says MJO I'd trust his thoughts

Looks like EPAC will wake up again, tends to have another peak late August climo wise
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#535 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:32 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 9 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form just off the
west-central coast of Mexico late this week in association with the
remnants of Atlantic Tropical Storm Franklin after it moves across
southern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend before it moves west-northwestward into less conducive
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
coast of southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system over the weekend and early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#536 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:46 pm

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 9 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form just off the
west-central coast of Mexico late this week in association with the
remnants of Atlantic Tropical Storm Franklin after it moves across
southern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend before it moves west-northwestward into less conducive
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
coast of southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system over the weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#537 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:54 pm

5 PM PDT TWO.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 9 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form just off the
west-central coast of Mexico late this week in association with the
remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Franklin after it moves across
southern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend before it moves west-northwestward into a less conducive
environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
coast of southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system over the weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#538 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:17 pm

Passage of ex Franklin remnants kicks off lower pressures per Euro and after a 1-2 weak slowdown, picks up again in the EPAC
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#539 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:18 pm

Euro more bullish showing lots of EPac activity, including a pair of TS's in the CPac.

Image

GFS drops all development.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#540 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:06 pm

Lots of completing vort's in the EPac. Consolidation will be key.

Image
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