2017 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 8 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form later this weekend
or early next week a few hundred miles south of the southern coast
of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable at that time for some
gradual development of this system as it moves slowly northward
toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Things are definitely not trending in the right direction for the East Pacific. Earlier, it looked likely we would see a warm Neutral to weak El Nino for the season, which is a favorable place to be in conjunction with a positive PDO. Now, however, El Ninos seems very unlikely and we should instead trend back toward the middle of Neutral territory. This, combined with average or even below-average ocean temperatures as well as a more stable airmass, supports an average season. Definitely not comparable to 2014-2016.

[Kingarabian]

Things are definitely not trending in the right direction for the East Pacific. Earlier, it looked likely we would see a warm Neutral to weak El Nino for the season, which is a favorable place to be in conjunction with a positive PDO. Now, however, El Ninos seems very unlikely and we should instead trend back toward the middle of Neutral territory. This, combined with average or even below-average ocean temperatures as well as a more stable airmass, supports an average season. Definitely not comparable to 2014-2016.

Actually very comparable to 2014-2016.
We saw a La Nina and a +PDO combo last season and still had an above average season. El Nino being here this season is subjective and anyone's guess when you consider all the variables. But we'll definitely be at warm neutral for at least most of the season, so that'll only increase the odds of an active EPAC season.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Things are definitely not trending in the right direction for the East Pacific. Earlier, it looked likely we would see a warm Neutral to weak El Nino for the season, which is a favorable place to be in conjunction with a positive PDO. Now, however, El Ninos seems very unlikely and we should instead trend back toward the middle of Neutral territory. This, combined with average or even below-average ocean temperatures as well as a more stable airmass, supports an average season. Definitely not comparable to 2014-2016.

Actually very comparable to 2014-2016.
We saw a La Nina and a +PDO combo last season and still had an above average season. El Nino being here this season is subjective and anyone's guess when you consider all the variables. But we'll definitely be at warm neutral for at least most of the season, so that'll only increase the odds of an active EPAC season.

2016 also saw near/record warm ocean temperatures and an explosive July (which was forecast weeks beforehand) to jumpstart its way as a well above average season. The rest of the season was generally average. Current conditions are far less favorable now than this time last year, with much cooler ocean temperatures and less prominent PDO.

[Kingarabian]

Things are definitely not trending in the right direction for the East Pacific. Earlier, it looked likely we would see a warm Neutral to weak El Nino for the season, which is a favorable place to be in conjunction with a positive PDO. Now, however, El Ninos seems very unlikely and we should instead trend back toward the middle of Neutral territory. This, combined with average or even below-average ocean temperatures as well as a more stable airmass, supports an average season. Definitely not comparable to 2014-2016.

Actually very comparable to 2014-2016.
We saw a La Nina and a +PDO combo last season and still had an above average season. El Nino being here this season is subjective and anyone's guess when you consider all the variables. But we'll definitely be at warm neutral for at least most of the season, so that'll only increase the odds of an active EPAC season.

2016 also saw record warm ocean temperatures and an explosive July (which was forecast weeks beforehand) to jumpstart its fate as a well above average season. The rest of the season was generally average. Current conditions are far less favorable now than this time last year.

And we're about to see the 3rd storm this season despite far less favorable conditions compared to this time last year.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Actually very comparable to 2014-2016.
We saw a La Nina and a +PDO combo last season and still had an above average season. El Nino being here this season is subjective and anyone's guess when you consider all the variables. But we'll definitely be at warm neutral for at least most of the season, so that'll only increase the odds of an active EPAC season.

2016 also saw record warm ocean temperatures and an explosive July (which was forecast weeks beforehand) to jumpstart its fate as a well above average season. The rest of the season was generally average. Current conditions are far less favorable now than this time last year.

And we're about to see the 3rd storm this season despite far less favorable conditions compared to this time last year.

Yes, we've seen 2 short-lived tropical storms that, when combined, amount to the lowest ACE output on record in the East Pacific for the first two named storms.

2013 AHS saw 3 named storms by the first week of July, including a MDR storm that was supposed to signal a very busy year. Much good that did.

[Kingarabian]

2016 also saw record warm ocean temperatures and an explosive July (which was forecast weeks beforehand) to jumpstart its fate as a well above average season. The rest of the season was generally average. Current conditions are far less favorable now than this time last year.

And we're about to see the 3rd storm this season despite far less favorable conditions compared to this time last year.

Yes, we've seen 2 short-lived tropical storms that, when combined, amount to the lowest ACE output on record in the East Pacific for the first two named storms.

2013 AHS saw 3 named storms by the first week of July, including a MDR storm that was supposed to signal a very busy year. Much good that did.

Well when you compare it to last season where we nearly had the latest start on record for the EPAC while last season having better conditions, any storm forming now means the talk about poor conditions in the EPAC are for naught.

I don't know about comparing the Atlantic hurricane season with the Pacific hurricane season, but the key variables are there for the EPAC to be active this season.

Warm PDO continues its reign.
Near average shear.
Above average SST's.

That's pretty much what we look for in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

What counts the most in a season anywhere in the basins around the world is the amount of energy (ACE) units it gets and so far EPAC despite two storms has raquitic ACE units. (.8475) The total number of named systems is a sideshow.We had seen not so active seasons with great ACE but seasons with many named storms with not impressive ACE.

[Ntxw]

I thought the overall PDO had a bigger say in activity overall than La Nina/Nino for the EPAC? El Nino from what I can tell tends to provide more intense systems here, but not necessary for active season.

[Ntxw]

What counts the most in a season anywhere in the basins around the world is the amount of energy (ACE) units it gets and so far EPAC despite two storms has raquitic ACE units. (.8475) The total number of named systems is a sideshow.We had seen not so active seasons with great ACE but seasons with many named storms with not impressive ACE.

All of the basins (except maybe north Indian) have produced less than stellar systems thus far in 2017

[Kingarabian]

What counts the most in a season anywhere in the basins around the world is the amount of energy (ACE) units it gets and so far EPAC despite two storms has raquitic ACE units. (.8475) The total number of named systems is a sideshow.We had seen not so active seasons with great ACE but many named storms with not impressive ACE.

But just because we had two storms with minimal ACE counts, it does not means it's a precursor for below average season

Because:
2016 Not counting Pali in the CPAC, last season had nearly 0 ACE until July, and ended with 186 ACE.
2006 at this time, had less ACE with two storms forming before July, and ended with 155 ACE.
1982 at this time, had less ACE with two storm forming before July, and ended up with 161 ACE
1992 not counting Eleka in February in the CPAC, had less ACE than now with three weak tropical storms...

1993, 1994, and 1997 also fit the bill.

These seasons all had warm PDO's by the way.

[Kingarabian]

I thought the overall PDO had a bigger say in activity overall than La Nina/Nino for the EPAC? El Nino from what I can tell tends to provide more intense systems here, but not necessary for active season.

Correct. See my previous post. Those seasons listed had generally later starts, with initially lower ACE values yet ended up above average - and they were all under a warm PDO.

[Bocadude85]

What counts the most in a season anywhere in the basins around the world is the amount of energy (ACE) units it gets and so far EPAC despite two storms has raquitic ACE units. (.8475) The total number of named systems is a sideshow.We had seen not so active seasons with great ACE but many named storms with not impressive ACE.

But just because we had two storms with minimal ACE counts, it does not means it's a precursor for below average season

Because:
2016 Not counting Pali in the CPAC, last season had nearly 0 ACE until July, and ended with 186 ACE.
2006 at this time, had less ACE with two storms forming before July, and ended with 155 ACE.
1982 at this time, had less ACE with two storm forming before July, and ended up with 161 ACE
1992 not counting Eleka in February in the CPAC, had less ACE than now with three weak tropical storms...

1993, 1994, and 1997 also fit the bill.

These seasons all had warm PDO's by the way.

Just because the conditions appear favorable currently doesn't mean that the Epac will see an above average season. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is a prime example of this.

[Kingarabian]

What counts the most in a season anywhere in the basins around the world is the amount of energy (ACE) units it gets and so far EPAC despite two storms has raquitic ACE units. (.8475) The total number of named systems is a sideshow.We had seen not so active seasons with great ACE but many named storms with not impressive ACE.

But just because we had two storms with minimal ACE counts, it does not means it's a precursor for below average season

Because:
2016 Not counting Pali in the CPAC, last season had nearly 0 ACE until July, and ended with 186 ACE.
2006 at this time, had less ACE with two storms forming before July, and ended with 155 ACE.
1982 at this time, had less ACE with two storm forming before July, and ended up with 161 ACE
1992 not counting Eleka in February in the CPAC, had less ACE than now with three weak tropical storms...

1993, 1994, and 1997 also fit the bill.

These seasons all had warm PDO's by the way.

Just because the conditions appear favorable currently doesn't mean that the Epac will see an above average season. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is a prime example of this.

In that case, just because the Atlantic looks favorable, does not mean that the Atlantic will be above average this season since 2013 appeared to be favorable but turned out to be a bust.

[Ntxw]

What counts the most in a season anywhere in the basins around the world is the amount of energy (ACE) units it gets and so far EPAC despite two storms has raquitic ACE units. (.8475) The total number of named systems is a sideshow.We had seen not so active seasons with great ACE but many named storms with not impressive ACE.

But just because we had two storms with minimal ACE counts, it does not means it's a precursor for below average season

Because:
2016 Not counting Pali in the CPAC, last season had nearly 0 ACE until July, and ended with 186 ACE.
2006 at this time, had less ACE with two storms forming before July, and ended with 155 ACE.
1982 at this time, had less ACE with two storm forming before July, and ended up with 161 ACE
1992 not counting Eleka in February in the CPAC, had less ACE than now with three weak tropical storms...

1993, 1994, and 1997 also fit the bill.

These seasons all had warm PDO's by the way.

Just because the conditions appear favorable currently doesn't mean that the Epac will see an above average season. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is a prime example of this.

The same can be said of the Atlantic. There are many mixed signals, but as I posted above the global output as a whole and may be a sign. The EPAC doesn't work all the same like the Atlantic, its seasons are bunched together and follow the PDO pretty well.

[weathaguyry]

I think there is a valid argument towards a dead EPAC season, the PDO last year was near +2.5, but in 2017 there is a fairly neutral PDO with a stream of cold anomalies down the West Coast, despite the warm water south of Hawaii. The Instability is currently very low, and this needs to change in order to get bunches of hurricanes like we have seen in previous years. If the instability stays low, we may just see mainly sloppy storms that never really get their act together.

[weathaguyry]

But just because we had two storms with minimal ACE counts, it does not means it's a precursor for below average season

Because:
2016 Not counting Pali in the CPAC, last season had nearly 0 ACE until July, and ended with 186 ACE.
2006 at this time, had less ACE with two storms forming before July, and ended with 155 ACE.
1982 at this time, had less ACE with two storm forming before July, and ended up with 161 ACE
1992 not counting Eleka in February in the CPAC, had less ACE than now with three weak tropical storms...

1993, 1994, and 1997 also fit the bill.

These seasons all had warm PDO's by the way.

Just because the conditions appear favorable currently doesn't mean that the Epac will see an above average season. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is a prime example of this.

In that case, just because the Atlantic looks favorable, does not mean that the Atlantic will be above average this season since 2013 appeared to be favorable but turned out to be a bust.

I believe that the 2013 Hurricane Season was inactive, because of the failed progression to a summer pattern, which led to usually spring-like Atlantic conditions, which doesn't look to be happening this year, with a healthy transition towards a summer pattern happening.

[Bocadude85]

But just because we had two storms with minimal ACE counts, it does not means it's a precursor for below average season

Because:
2016 Not counting Pali in the CPAC, last season had nearly 0 ACE until July, and ended with 186 ACE.
2006 at this time, had less ACE with two storms forming before July, and ended with 155 ACE.
1982 at this time, had less ACE with two storm forming before July, and ended up with 161 ACE
1992 not counting Eleka in February in the CPAC, had less ACE than now with three weak tropical storms...

1993, 1994, and 1997 also fit the bill.

These seasons all had warm PDO's by the way.

Just because the conditions appear favorable currently doesn't mean that the Epac will see an above average season. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is a prime example of this.

In that case, just because the Atlantic looks favorable, does not mean that the Atlantic will be above average this season since 2013 appeared to be favorable but turned out to be a bust.

That goes without saying, no where have I said that the Atlantic will be above average. My point was that potentially favorable conditions do not guarantee an above average season.

[Kingarabian]

I think there is a valid argument towards a dead EPAC season, the PDO last year was near +2.5, but in 2017 there is a fairly neutral PDO with a stream of cold anomalies down the West Coast, despite the warm water south of Hawaii. The Instability is currently very low, and this needs to change in order to get bunches of hurricanes like we have seen in previous years. If the instability stays low, we may just see mainly sloppy storms that never really get their act together.

[ig]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_ep_nep_THDV.gif[/img]

The PDO is a decadal variable that means if it's at pro longed positive values, then we're in a warm phase. If there are pro longed negative values, then we're in a cold phase. There's no neutral phase, nor can there be considerations of short term oscillations in its monthly readings. So because it's in a positive state, we'll see its positive effects toward the EPAC hurricane season. Because if we're going to consider a +1.00 PDO a "fairly neutral PDO" and consider it as a not so favorable variable anymore, look at the PDO numbers for 1992:

Code: Select all

1992     0.05   0.31   0.67   0.75   1.54   1.26   1.90   1.44   0.83   0.93   0.93   0.53

1992 was a hyperactive season despite "neutral" PDO values.

[Kingarabian]

Just because the conditions appear favorable currently doesn't mean that the Epac will see an above average season. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is a prime example of this.

In that case, just because the Atlantic looks favorable, does not mean that the Atlantic will be above average this season since 2013 appeared to be favorable but turned out to be a bust.

That goes without saying, no where have I said that the Atlantic will be above average. My point was that potentially favorable conditions do not guarantee an above average season.

I understand, and that's a fair point. Besides looking at key components and analog seasons, it can go either way. But we can still use favorable conditions as measuring point on what might happen.