2017 EPAC Season

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Ntxw
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#501 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Pretty consistent signal from general guidance EPAC will have potential Jova next week. Area of interest should start showing up late this weekend and might be a hurricane by late week
http://i64.tinypic.com/6ycylw.png


Not too sure about this. Looking at the ECMWF and CMC models there isn't anything anywhere near as strong as the GFS shows not to mention the upgraded GFS has been far too bullish on some systems in the EPAC already. Big flop on Hillary for example.

Also long-range shows the EPAC really starting to slow as expected as we head into August so Atlantic's turn should be around the corner.


Don't know about it getting strong, but still decent signal Jova might come out of it. In general the EPAC will slow down some I agree. The Atlantic I'm not sure yet, the Bermuda/Azores high will flex and will be stacked from 500mb down so pressures quite high. Both basins may experience somewhat of a lull before kicking back up mid August.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#502 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 28, 2017 5:36 pm

18z GFS...

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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#503 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:54 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Main thing for this season is ASO. Last seasons ASO could've been better but didn't due to the Niña shear.

What is ASO?

This year I don't think the SST's are quite as favorable. Seems like instability is an issue as well, as well as a negative background state for TC's that has persisted since the record quiet SHEM tropical season last (our) winter.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#504 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:04 pm

An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for some development of this system
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#505 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:14 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Main thing for this season is ASO. Last seasons ASO could've been better but didn't due to the Niña shear.

What is ASO?

This year I don't think the SST's are quite as favorable. Seems like instability is an issue as well, as well as a negative background state for TC's that has persisted since the record quiet SHEM tropical season last (our) winter.


August September October.

Excluding Madeline and Lester, felt like last year fell off after that July outbreak.


Yeah the background state has been mediocre at best. Jova will put the conditions you mentioned to test as it should technically have a better environment than Hilary and Irwin.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#506 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:48 am

Kingarabian wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Main thing for this season is ASO. Last seasons ASO could've been better but didn't due to the Niña shear.

What is ASO?

This year I don't think the SST's are quite as favorable. Seems like instability is an issue as well, as well as a negative background state for TC's that has persisted since the record quiet SHEM tropical season last (our) winter.


August September October.

Excluding Madeline and Lester, felt like last year fell off after that July outbreak.


Yeah the background state has been mediocre at best. Jova will put the conditions you mentioned to test as it should technically have a better environment than Hilary and Irwin.


Assuming future Jova will even form the way it's discussed here... the Euro has been bearish and I just can't trust the new GFS given its poor performance these past few weeks.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#507 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 29, 2017 12:54 pm

Wow.

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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#508 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:07 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:What is ASO?

This year I don't think the SST's are quite as favorable. Seems like instability is an issue as well, as well as a negative background state for TC's that has persisted since the record quiet SHEM tropical season last (our) winter.


August September October.

Excluding Madeline and Lester, felt like last year fell off after that July outbreak.


Yeah the background state has been mediocre at best. Jova will put the conditions you mentioned to test as it should technically have a better environment than Hilary and Irwin.


Assuming future Jova will even form the way it's discussed here... the Euro has been bearish and I just can't trust the new GFS given its poor performance these past few weeks.


I think you are selling the EPAC season short here. Sure global activity as a whole is down, but the one lone exception has been the EPAC. By most measurable metrics so to speak the EPAC is above normal, named, ACE, hurricanes, etc. Since 2014 the strongest EPAC storm has occured in ASO. 2014 Marie, 2015 Patricia, and 2016 Seymour is probably what Kingarabian was possibly trying to portray.

Now if you were to say the CPAC is less favorable as systems track west out of the EPAC, that you'd have a pretty good argument. Just because the EPAC is not on record pace like 2015 or July of 2016 some seem to paint the image of a lesser season.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#509 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:33 pm

Man the Euro has nothing on Jova while the GFS has a cat 4.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#510 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:37 pm

GFS makes Jova cat.2 - more believable scenario. Bit more EPS support for Jova @ 12z compared to the past two runs. So maybe the Euro will show Jova again @ 00z.

GFS also continues spinning up Kenneth in 8 days.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#511 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 30, 2017 6:38 am

GFS continues with Jova as well as Kenneth and now shows Lidia in the long range. A sign that we won't see a dull August like last years.

Euro back to showing some sort of development in regards to Jova. EPS has to 11 members showing development compared to 3-7 the last two runs, so expect the Euro to show more development.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#512 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:08 pm

12z GFS much weaker with future Jova.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#513 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:47 pm

:uarrow: Yep not a surprise. Seems to be another example of the upgraded GFS's intensity bias.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#514 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 30, 2017 1:26 pm

Latest models' runs show a quieter start to August than in July over the EPAC.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#515 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 30, 2017 2:55 pm

Shear is actually pretty favorable for development, even at the mid levels.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#516 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 30, 2017 3:14 pm



https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/891619142083719169


So with the CCKW set to pass in a day or so and the GFS showing Jova spinning up in 24 hours + a good environment, it will put the Kelvin Wave TC enhancing theory to good test.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#517 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 31, 2017 5:30 pm

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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#518 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:29 pm

Kingarabian wrote:http://i.imgur.com/bakbrz8.png


At the same timeframe the ECMWF and CMC have nothing.

The global model consensus is pretty unanimous in the EPAC staying slow for the next couple of weeks.

Atlantic's turn is around the corner.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#519 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 05, 2017 3:40 pm

Not sure if it's an active MJO pulse or a Kelvin, but it's on the way and traversing through the CPac->EPac.

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GFS continues in showing Jova in 10 days + UKMET support (if these models are to be believed).

Euro continues to drop pressures in the same timeframe:

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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#520 Postby panamatropicwatch » Sat Aug 05, 2017 3:55 pm

You would think the EPAC would slow down some with all that dry air.

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