2017 EPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8574
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#521 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:00 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:You would think the EPAC would slow down some with all that dry air.

[img]http://tropicwatch.info/dry080520172030.jpg[img]


Dry air in the Epac works differently compared to the dry air in the Atlantic.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 15537
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#522 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 05, 2017 5:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Not sure if it's an active MJO pulse or a Kelvin, but it's on the way and traversing through the CPac->EPac.

Image

GFS continues in showing Jova in 10 days + UKMET support (if these models are to be believed).

Euro continues to drop pressures in the same timeframe:

Image


Ensembles and the globals do show lowering pressures. Just got to see the shear forecast
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8574
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#523 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 05, 2017 5:58 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Not sure if it's an active MJO pulse or a Kelvin, but it's on the way and traversing through the CPac->EPac.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/2crsnRE.gif[img]

GFS continues in showing Jova in 10 days + UKMET support (if these models are to be believed).

Euro continues to drop pressures in the same timeframe:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/Xdf3AJe.png[img]


Ensembles and the globals do show lowering pressures. Just got to see the shear forecast


Per the 12z Euro:

Through 5 days, shear is favorable in the western EPac and unfavorable in the eastern EPac (probably due to outflow from future Franklin in the BOC).

Days 6 - 10 favorable shear is widespread across the whole basin. Look for TC genesis around this time.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8574
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#524 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:15 am

Great 00z EPS support for multiple TC systems in the EPac in 7 days. The signal from the EPS is strong - strongest since the July outbreak.

GFS continues to show TC genesis within 7 days and the Euro continues to spin up a swath of lows in the same time frame.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8574
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#525 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:46 pm

18z GFS has WPac esque Monsoon trough, spawning TC's rapidly:

Image

Coincides well with an active MJO signal.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10535
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#526 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:53 pm

:uarrow: GFS likes be move the MJO too fast. Think ECMWf may be more accurate in the short term.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 15537
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#527 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:14 pm

I'm not seeing a coherent MJO signal. There hasn't been one for awhile. In large part the next lowering of pressures and increase in activity is in accordance with another passing CCKW currently in the CPAC.

This one appears more focused for the EPAC than the recent one which came and went pretty quickly. Whether it amounts to activity is up for debate but that's likely what the models are seeing.

Image
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8574
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#528 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:I'm not seeing a coherent MJO signal. There hasn't been one for awhile. In large part the next lowering of pressures and increase in activity is in accordance with another passing CCKW currently in the CPAC.

This one appears more focused for the EPAC than the recent one which came and went pretty quickly. Whether it amounts to activity is up for debate but that's likely what the models are seeing.

[img]https://preview.ibb.co/cxE5CF/hov.png[/mg]


Ooh. Yeah these CCKW/MJO can be confusing. But it's interesting that we're seeing another CCKW so quickly. That's quite a pulse from the GFS...
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8574
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#529 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 07, 2017 5:06 am

GFS and EPS have a CPac TS homebrew.

Euro has a quick strike TS off of western Mexico in 48-72hrs. Continues to show it. May need an NHC circle soon.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112131
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#530 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:41 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 7 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form during the next day or so
several hundred miles south of the coast of Mexico. Development, if
any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8574
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#531 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 07, 2017 4:01 pm

Ntxw, wouldn't this graphic from MVentrice point to the MJO being in the EPac?

http://i.imgur.com/E5dXUm9.jpg
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8574
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#532 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:17 am

Euro now showing a strong system in the Epac, in line with the GFS.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8574
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#533 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:14 pm

Euro fully on board for a significant EPac hurricane, in line with the GFS:

Image
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 15537
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#534 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:28 am

Kingarabian wrote:Ntxw, wouldn't this graphic from MVentrice point to the MJO being in the EPac?

http://i.imgur.com/E5dXUm9.jpg


I'd defer to him since it is his field of work, if he says MJO I'd trust his thoughts

Looks like EPAC will wake up again, tends to have another peak late August climo wise
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10535
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#535 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:32 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 9 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form just off the
west-central coast of Mexico late this week in association with the
remnants of Atlantic Tropical Storm Franklin after it moves across
southern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend before it moves west-northwestward into less conducive
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
coast of southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system over the weekend and early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8574
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#536 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:46 pm

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 9 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form just off the
west-central coast of Mexico late this week in association with the
remnants of Atlantic Tropical Storm Franklin after it moves across
southern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend before it moves west-northwestward into less conducive
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
coast of southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system over the weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112131
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#537 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:54 pm

5 PM PDT TWO.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 9 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form just off the
west-central coast of Mexico late this week in association with the
remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Franklin after it moves across
southern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend before it moves west-northwestward into a less conducive
environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
coast of southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system over the weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 15537
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#538 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:17 pm

Passage of ex Franklin remnants kicks off lower pressures per Euro and after a 1-2 weak slowdown, picks up again in the EPAC
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8574
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#539 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:18 pm

Euro more bullish showing lots of EPac activity, including a pair of TS's in the CPac.

Image

GFS drops all development.
1 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8574
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#540 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:06 pm

Lots of completing vort's in the EPac. Consolidation will be key.

Image
0 likes   
Image


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Kingarabian, lrak, MGC, Siker and 23 guests