2017 EPAC Season

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Ntxw
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#561 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Could potentially see up to 3-4 named systems from this upcoming activity burst which would bring the total storms to 15-16, with modest ACE accumulations since some of these systems will be short lived as they make landfall or go too far north. Still waiting on a Madeline/Lester/Jimena classic cruisers to rack us up some needed ACE points.


The western half of the basin (+cpac) have not be kind to storms moving west aside from Fernanda.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#562 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:25 am

The remnants of Katia (20%/20%) have been tagged INVEST 95E and it probably won't be long until we see the 20/70 area tagged as well.

11 PM:

2. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula by the middle
of the week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development after that time while it moves northward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#563 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:27 am

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Could potentially see up to 3-4 named systems from this upcoming activity burst which would bring the total storms to 15-16, with modest ACE accumulations since some of these systems will be short lived as they make landfall or go too far north. Still waiting on a Madeline/Lester/Jimena classic cruisers to rack us up some needed ACE points.


The western half of the basin (+cpac) have not be kind to storms moving west aside from Fernanda.


That portion of the EPac, including the CPac are ENSO dependent.

So with ENSO trending more and more towards a La Niña, I wouldn't be surprised to see the CPac shutdown soon although I wouldn't rule out a cruiser just yet.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#564 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:36 am

Extratropical94 wrote:The remnants of Katia (20%/20%) have been tagged INVEST 95E



I keep losing track of how that works and what gets new names or doesn't.

But I keep losing track of my own fingers too. :eek: :bathroom:
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#565 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:53 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:
Extratropical94 wrote:The remnants of Katia (20%/20%) have been tagged INVEST 95E



I keep losing track of how that works and what gets new names or doesn't.

But I keep losing track of my own fingers too. :eek: :bathroom:


It's actually quite simple. After 2000, systems that move from ATL to EPAC and stay a tropical cyclone all the way across KEEP their names. If a system degenerates over land (like Katia for example) and the remnants regenerate, it gets a new name. Regardless of whether it stays a TC or de- and regenerates it gets a new identifier.

So in this case, it would be the remnants of 13L KATIA regenerating into 15E MAX.
If she stayed a TC over Mexico, it would've been 13L KATIA -> 15E KATIA.

The latter thing happened last year with Hurricane Otto.

Before 2000, basin-crossing TCs did also get a new name, but that was changed by the WMO.

Edit: Of course all of the above is also applied when a storm crosses from EPAC to ATL.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#566 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:48 pm

11 AM:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula by the middle
of the week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development after that time while it moves slowly
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#567 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:56 pm

So far:

Franklin -> Jova
Harvey -> Lidia
Katia -> Max
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#568 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:15 pm

5 PM:

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula in a day or
two. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development after that time while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#569 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:39 pm

Watching this one with great interest. Have a trip scheduled down to Cabo San Lucas at the end of the month. Gfs has been the most persistent on a hurricane hitting that region late this weekend, but now the euro and cmc both show similar scenarios as well. How well has the gfs done this season in terms of strength actually verifying? Been showing a pretty substantial hurricane hitting the southern Baja for the past several days.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#570 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:18 am

I guess both will be tagged as invests very soon.

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico is producing widespread disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the end of the week while the system moves slowly north
or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula during the
next day or two. After that time, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the week, while it moves
slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#571 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:51 pm

11 AM PDT:

A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression may form
within the next day or two before the system moves over
southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are expected to spread over the coast of southwestern Mexico
during the next few days. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south of the Baja California peninsula during the
next day or two. After that time, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the week, while it moves
slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#572 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:53 am

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while
it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Another area of low pressure is located more than 1500 miles
west-southwest of the Baja California peninsula. Development, if
any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it
moves little during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#573 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:10 am

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while
it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Another area of low pressure is located more than 1700 miles
west-southwest of the Baja California peninsula. Development, if
any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it
moves little during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#574 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:14 am

An area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands is producing persistent but disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Satellite imagery indicates that a
well-defined center does not currently exist, and additional
development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while this
system moves little during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#575 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:11 pm

Euro showing Pilar @ hour 168-192:

Image

Heavy EPS support for Pilar and our 17th system, Ramon, in the very long range.

Just need the ACE to catch up but it's been tough since the systems keep recurving and affecting land.

Looks like if there's a year with a lot of named storms but normal ACE, it would mean that more land areas are affected.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#576 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Euro showing Pilar @ hour 168-192:

https://i.imgur.com/31c1CN7.gif

Heavy EPS support for Pilar and our 17th system, Ramon, in the very long range.

Just need the ACE to catch up but it's been tough since the systems keep recurving and affecting land.

Looks like if there's a year with a lot of named storms but normal ACE, it would mean that more land areas are affected.


The area where the Euro expected Pilar to form is now in the TWO.

11 AM:

An area of low pressure is expected to form by the end of the week
south of southeastern Mexico. Gradual subsequent development is
possible as the system moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#577 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:07 am

11 PM:

A trough of low pressure located about 1300 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Development, if any, of this system should be slow
to occur while it remains nearly stationary during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form by the end of the week
south of southeastern Mexico. Some subsequent development
is possible as the system moves slowly west-northwestward near the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#578 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:41 pm

11 AM:

1. A trough of low pressure located about 1300 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Development of this system is not expected while it drifts
southwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form by the end of the week
south of southeastern Mexico. Gradual development of this system
is possible this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward just south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#579 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:57 am

5 AM:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the coast of
southeastern Mexico southward for a few hundred miles are associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward
near the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#580 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:06 am

11 PM:

A large area of disturbed weather associated with a broad area
of low pressure is located a few hundred miles southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico. Conditions are favorable for a tropical depression
to form by the weekend while this system moves west-northwestward
very near the southern coast of Mexico. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, heavy rains are expected in this area during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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