2017 EPAC Season

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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#581 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:49 am

It looks like the second part of this surge might end up with HU Pilar, TS Ramon, TS Walaka and HU Selma. Selma might and may be the one who will make a run as a October Cat. 4 (or high-end Cat. 3) major (continuing the streak of Paul, Raymond, Olaf, Simon and Seymour). Though Todd might make at it too.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#582 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:26 pm

A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
east-southeast of Acapulco near the coast of Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Land interaction should
limit development of this system during the next day or two, but
a tropical depression will likely form over the weekend when the
system moves farther offshore. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, heavy rains are expected over portions of southern
Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#583 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:49 pm

We normally don't see this in September. Steering flow shifts from east-> west to west -> east due to sweeping troughs across the northern Pacific:

Image

Going to be hard to muster any decent ACE if this continues and materializes.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#584 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:15 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210512
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located just offshore of the southwest coast of Mexico
has increased, but remains disorganized. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in two to three days as the system
moves slowly toward the west-northwest. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, heavy rains are expected over portions of
southern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsk
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#585 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:40 pm

Image
Looks like a vigorous monsoon phase for this basin.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#586 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 6:17 am

Yeah the GFS has a 916 mb hurricane off the coast of Mexico. It has one more Major right after.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#587 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 30, 2017 7:47 am

:uarrow: The GFS has had phantom storms form in the EPAC just west of C.A. on its med to long range forecast for the past couple of months, it has been 80-90% wrong.
Even the Euro has been forecasting phantom storms in in this area.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#588 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 7:50 am

GFS has been very very persistent with this. It has it hitting Mexico...Well let's see... :wink:
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#589 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:34 am

The EPAC is dead? :lol: :eek:
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#590 Postby Iune » Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:37 pm

Has the CPHC issued any advisories this season? I feel like they haven't, but I can't quite recall.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#591 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 1:13 am

GFS has a long tracking hurricane originating south of Mexico.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#592 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:23 pm

euro6208 wrote:GFS has a long tracking hurricane originating south of Mexico.



Euro shows something of that nature as well. Could be another ghost though.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#593 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:23 pm

Iune wrote:Has the CPHC issued any advisories this season? I feel like they haven't, but I can't quite recall.


Fernanda for like a couple of advisories.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#594 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:05 am

For the first year since 2014 the EPAC looks to finish below the annual ACE. July was the hot month then was shut down since. Storms struggled to survive once they left the eastern basin.
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Re: 2017 EPAC Season

#595 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:22 pm

Ntxw wrote:For the first year since 2014 the EPAC looks to finish below the annual ACE. July was the hot month then was shut down since. Storms struggled to survive once they left the eastern basin.


Yeah. Looks like ENSO has a strong and direct influence on EPAC activity than previously thought.
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