Area of Disturbed Weather Entering Andaman Sea

[Alyono]

All models develop this over the weekend. Next week, the model consensus is for a very intense TC in the Bay of Bengal moving toward India.

Most models show a landfall next Wednesday or Thursday. However, the EC delays it until Saturday or Sunday

This has the same development potential that Matthew did, meaning, this is certain to develop

[gatorcane]

Yeah I looked at the models a couple of days ago for this area and they all seemed to show development. Hopefully it won't get as strong as Matthew for India.

[Alyono]

Think we can merge this with the invest 99W thread

[Alyono]

despite all models showing a cyclone, IMD has a low chance of development through 72 hours

[wxmann_91]

despite all models showing a cyclone, IMD has a low chance of development through 72 hours

To be fair (though not trying to defend IMD here), if the ECMWF is right this doesn't really get going until around Day 4.

[Alyono]

It's developing now though. They did upgrade to fair through 72 hours, though saying less than a 50 percent chance. Nearly every other model has a 50 kt + system then. I do not understand what IMD is looking at in this case