2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 05, 2016 4:48 pm

I am starting very early this annual thread for the models as important information about the upgrade to the new model that will suplant GFS.But it will be on 2018 for Paralell and 2019 for the new model.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/805838250032041984


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:30 pm

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#3 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:00 pm

Could this possibly be something subtropical going into the weekend? I would think not, but it did look at least somewhat interesting :lol:

GFS:
Image

Euro:
Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#4 Postby xironman » Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:32 am

Looks like everyone has there own funky system at 240

Image

Image

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:31 pm

Below is the complez timeframe for new upgrade to GFS in 2017.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/823617408275390464


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:38 pm

UKMET to be upgraded from 2017 thru 2019

One of the best models that did well in the 2016 season.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/823611753653272576


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#7 Postby gatorcane » Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:22 pm

Is that subtropical development off the SE US coast the GFS and ECMWF are showing?

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#8 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:40 pm

:uarrow: Should this feature develop in the next week, it should be far enough off the Southeast U.S. coast in which it should not pose any significant effects. Something to watch even if it is a mere curiosity for now. It is interesting to see such a feature this early on in the picture nonetheless.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#9 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:43 am

Just on a quick glance at the GFS image, 1000-500 mb thickness is decreasing towards the center, so probably non-tropical.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#10 Postby TheAustinMan » Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:52 pm

It's probably not happening in the way its depicted in the CMC, but the 12z was quite entertaining with regard to the Gulf of Mexico by throwing a subtropical/possibly tropical system in the mix. :lol: Just a pipe dream though. It originates from the Bay of Campeche here.

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#11 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Feb 12, 2017 12:20 am

TheAustinMan wrote:It's probably not happening in the way its depicted in the CMC, but the 12z was quite entertaining with regard to the Gulf of Mexico by throwing a subtropical/possibly tropical system in the mix. :lol: Just a pipe dream though. It originates from the Bay of Campeche here.

http://i.imgur.com/Npl1cwI.png


Wouldn't bet on it either but if other models show it it will probably be extratropical and be purely baroclinic
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:33 am

Probably nothing to see here but both GFS and ECMWF are showing a weak low in Western Atlantic and Is not at very long range.

Image

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 23, 2017 4:09 pm

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:28 pm

Ryan Maue about new GFS implementation:

New NOAA (USA) weather model (GFS) to be implemented in 2-months over objections of National Hurricane Center b/c of poor performance.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/838846950749392897


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:10 pm

Looks like NHC forecasters don't like so much the GFS latest upgrade.

http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurrican ... O3KZSn.Gqd

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:09 am

New HMON that will replace the GFDL is coming very soon in time for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/842029271501664256


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#17 Postby gatorcane » Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:45 am

:uarrow: Wonder if tropicaltidbits.com will add HMON model runs?
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:29 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: Wonder if tropicaltidbits.com will add HMON model runs?


It will be included to his site.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/842030384158281729


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#19 Postby Alyono » Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:32 pm

There is a solution to the regional models

Don't use the MU initial conditions and fields. Use the ECMWF
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:50 pm

@EricBlake12
#Hurricane track forecasting is an amazing success story over the past 4 decades thanks to model advances- Bravo @NWSEMC @ECMWF & others!


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 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/842055959136604163


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